Flooded Again: The Science and Policy Missteps Plaguing Resilience in Swat

By
Hadia Rashid
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Photo, LocMarg
In the quiet hush of early morning, Zahir, a shopkeeper in Mingora, Swat, stood at a distance, staring helplessly at his shop. Water rose above the roof. Bilal, a boy who watched the same river swallow his home three years ago, stood nearby. Now, the rains of 2025 have drowned Swat again, and the two are left picking up the pieces of their lives for the third time in fifteen years.

This Cycle of Devastation had begun in 2010, devastating floods claimed almost 2,000 lives across the country, with around 95 deaths in Swat itself. Bridges, fields, and villages disappeared overnight. More than 20 million Pakistanis lost their property or means of livelihood, and children such as Bilal were rescued from rooftops, holding nothing but school books.

In 2022, a century-level monsoon drowned a third of the country under water, hitting 33 million people and causing $30–40billion in damages. In Swat, hotels and bridges crumbled into foaming water as viral videos from Kalam depicted infrastructure constructed on riverbeds swept away.

2025: The trauma returns. In mid-August, heavy rainfall and cloud bursts caused flooding in cities like Mingora. Over 300 people across northern Pakistan have died, most severely affecting Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. 42 homes in Swat alone faced total collapse. 

“It feels like we are trapped in the same nightmare over and over again,” says Zahir, as his child asks whether the school will reopen.

Swat

The Science of Repetition

There are nearly 7,200 glaciers located high above Pakistan, which feed its rivers. Summers are warming, however, and glaciers are melting faster due to increasing temperatures. That meltwater fills the glacial lakes with water, which can suddenly burst through their thin walls.  When this year’s heavy rains started, officials already feared such outburst floods would drown the valleys.

Metrologists explain that when the air gets warmer, it can hold more water vapor. Eventually, all that extra moisture has to come down. If it happens quickly, especially in the mountains, it can cause a cloudburst. That means more than 100 millimeters of rain might fall on a single valley in under an hour.
When heavy rain falls quickly, the ground and rivers can’t keep up. Water races downhill, picking up mud and rocks along the way, which can lead to dangerous flash floods. Climate scientists say that human-caused warming is increasing the intensity of these storms.

This sudden, heavy rain falls so fast that the ground and rivers can’t deal with it. Instead of slowly flowing, the water rushes down violently.  It mixes with mud and rocks, giving rise to devastating flash floods. Climate scientists say human-caused warming of the atmosphere is one reason these cloud bursts are becoming more intense.

The geography in the northern areas adds to the problems. Swat’s valley is steep and narrow, and the soil is thin with little room to soak up water. When rain or glacier meltwater flows into the river, things can quickly go from calm to dangerous. In 2022, rainfall in the Swat basin was about 7 to 8 percent higher than usual. Even this small increase caused landslides and floods that destroyed homes, fields, and bridges.
That’s why the same disaster keeps happening again and again for the families living here.
The Human Hand behind the Recent Devastation

More than 700 hotels, restaurants, and houses have been constructed on or perilously near the banks of the Swat River despite planning regulations. Many are erased in each new disaster. At least 30 illegally constructed hotels were leveled in 2022. In 2025, the same pattern continued. Resorts and guesthouses were left with only their roofs sticking out above the floodwaters, where streets had previously existed.

These structures, approved by local government hungry for tourist money, function like plugged dams, pushing river water upstream and producing instantaneous floods in bazaar hubs.

Pakistan’s MET Department and NDMA issued heavy-rain/GLOF warnings this season, but numerous valley dwellers claim that they were not informed in time to evacuate. Alarms were there. Last-mile communication, trust, and evacuation planning were behind.

The Contrast: Lahore’s Safe City vs Swat’s Unsafe Valley

The Punjab Safe Cities Authority (PSCA) enhances safety in Lahore through a central command center equipped with thousands of CCTV cameras, automatic number plate recognition, and a 15 emergency helpline. This system enables rapid detection and response to crime and emergencies, with calls managed and dispatched in real time.
In Swat, things work differently. There is no ‘Safe Valley’ dashboard to warn every neighborhood, even though satellite and rainfall sensors could make this possible. Rivers follow the laws of physics, so stopping a sudden downpour on a hillside is impossible. What we can do is detect it sooner, send out alerts faster, and help people evacuate. The real challenge is not about science. It comes down to investment, strong institutions, and the political will to treat hydrological risks as seriously as Lahore treats urban security.

Proven Models: What Could Be Done!

Bangladesh stands as a powerful example of what unfolds when communities take center stage. Thanks to AI-powered river forecasts and timely alerts delivered by SMS or dedicated volunteers, people sprang into action. In one study, 93 percent of those who received warnings took steps to protect themselves, and cash support reached families before the worst floods of 2020 struck.
Sensors are most effective when stationed right where danger lurks. Inexpensive river gauges, rain radars, and landslide sensors stream real-time data to open dashboards such as the Google Flood Hub, now spanning much of South Asia. These alert systems trigger sirens and mobilize trained volunteers, who fan out through neighborhoods, knocking on doors to spread the warning.

Rivers require space to breathe. In the Netherlands, the Room for the River scheme redesigned floodplains, relocated dikes, and constructed relief channels. Mountain valleys like Swat can replicate these concepts: setback embankments, sacrificial parks, and debris basins to provide rivers a safe passage while safeguarding communities.

Accountability: The Science–Policy Question

When a city can bring thousands of cameras and one number together to lower crime response times, the science and engineering are there to bring hundreds of gauges, village sirens, and one valley-wide flood room together. Swat lacks not knowledge, but a requirement to enforce no-build zones, pay for real-time hydrology, and practice evacuations annually, before the rain.

As the next monsoon gathers over Swat, will the air fill first with the haunting cry of sirens or the hollow echo of a viral video? The river will rise, relentless as ever, but the fate of its people lies with those who hold the power to shape our future.
“At night, we stay awake, lost in thought- will the next monsoon bring safety, or will history repeat itself?” Zahir asks. For children like Bilal, the memory of swirling floodwaters chasing them from their homes is a lesson no classroom can offer. The tragedies of Swat are not acts of nature alone, nor are they unfamiliar; they are urgent messages the nation still has a chance to answer.

References:

More articles of your interest: Swat Flood Tragedy: A Wake-Up Call on Climate Change, not a Headline to Forget

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