It was the afternoon of an Arid winter season, in January 2025, when trails of smoke billowed through the sky as wildfires consumed acres of dried land in Los Angeles. Amidst the turmoil, as firefighters battled the firestorm, reports of looters plundering evacuated homes began to surface. These disturbing events indicate a deeper, sneakier trend — the dark side of climate change.
Climate change is not just an environmental crisis, it is shaping crime patterns. Extreme weather events such as floods and droughts devastate economies leaving many without stable incomes. Some turn to survival crimes like burglary or theft. While some exposed to organized crime are lured into drug trading or even human trafficking.
Continued greenhouse gas emissions and rising temperatures intensify heat islands, resulting in water shortages, rising sea levels, increased flood-related risks, and worsening pollution. Climate change is already disrupting cities around the globe. By the end of this decade, more than two-thirds of the population is expected to live in urban areas. African, American, and Asian cities are more prone to disasters, with coastal regions of North America and Western Europe on the front lines.
Climate change and criminal activities highlight the link between environmental factors and societal behavior. These factors influence crime patterns differently depending on their duration and the societal conditions they create. Floods, storms, and forest fires are short-term shocks, leading to instant consequences, including loss of lives and injuries.
Such events cause significant stress on healthcare systems, disruption of basic infrastructure, and the displacement of communities. These circumstances can give rise to non-violent property crimes.
The heat-crime hypothesis proposes that rising temperatures can fuel aggression and increase crime rates. Heat stress makes people more likely to misapprehend social interactions as hostile, leading to violent reactions. Warmer weather creates more opportunities for crime. When people spend more time outdoors, there are increased chances of conflicts and property crimes. In America, from 1980 to 1990, there was a strong link between heat and violent crime. One study based on 10-year data revealed that hotter years saw higher rates of deadly assaults.
Recent predictions paint a concerning picture. By the end of this century, increasing temperatures might lead to millions of violent crimes including murders, robberies, burglary, vehicle theft, and assaults. Worldwide studies resonate with this trend as it is revealed that a 1°C increase in temperature leads to a rise in homicide rates across several countries.
Exposure to air pollutants can influence aggression and impulsive behavior ultimately snowballing criminal activity. In urban settings, sulfur dioxide and particulate matter (PM2.5) are the pollutants linked to mental health disorders and delinquent behavior. Air pollution causes brain inflammation and oxidative stress impairing neural function and increasing the chances of violent behavior, particularly among youth.
The lead hypothesis links increasing crime rates in the U.S. from the 1960s to 1990s to lead exposure from gasoline. Lead poisoning contributed to aggression, impulsivity, and lower IQ, factors that may have fueled criminal behavior. As leaded fuel was phased out in the 1980s, the rate of crimes dropped significantly by the late 1990s.
Research in London disclosed that a 10-point rise in air pollution levels (AQI) led to a nearly 1 percent increase in crime. As air quality declines, these findings raise urgent concerns about the broader societal effects of climate change.
Climate change exacerbates human vulnerabilities, fostering fertile conditions for criminal activity. Floods, hurricanes, and wildfires frequently disrupt communities and strain law enforcement resources. This situation creates opportunities for individuals looking to exploit others’ suffering.
The changing climate is intensifying the scarcity of resources. Agricultural failures, droughts, and shrinking water supplies are becoming more common, powering conflicts over basic needs. The Turkana and Pokot tribes, in Northwestern Kenya, have repeatedly clashed over access to grazing land and reducing water resources. These face-offs often result in cattle raids, which threaten lives and destabilize the whole region.
The aftermath of disasters due to climate change disrupts basic services like food security, water supplies, and healthcare. Disease outbreaks may occur. As resources become scarce and social systems are strained, tensions rise, leading to an increase in domestic violence, intimate partner violence, and organized crime. This reflects the social and economic instability caused by prolonged recovery efforts.
Beyond opportunistic crimes, organized crimes are profiting from the effects of climate change. In Brazil, criminal groups “forest mafias” are responsible for large-scale deforestation in the Amazon, the world’s largest forest. Illegal logging operations are devastating forests at a serious rate. Likewise, illegal wildlife hunting and trade are booming as species are pushed to the border of extinction.
The long-term impacts of climate change on crime are deep-rooted in persistent stressors like rising sea levels and droughts. With time, these lead to mortality, morbidity, and the diversion of governmental and societal resources to climate adaptation measures. The strain on healthcare and infrastructure often increases inequality, marginalization of certain populations, and systemic vulnerabilities. Consequently, this causes a rise in both violent and non-violent crime as communities struggle with limited resources, unemployment, and survival.
Governments must invest in disaster preparedness and equitable resource management. International cooperation is equally vital. Initiatives like the Paris Agreement must be complemented. Providing legal pathways for migration and cracking down on human trafficking are essential steps in protecting those most at risk. On a local level, developing community resilience can help prevent crime owing to climate disasters. Programs that boost public trust in law enforcement, provide disaster training, and strengthen neighborhood networks can form a shield against crimes.
This dark aspect of changing climate is a reminder that this is not just an environmental issue but a societal one. As temperatures rise and disasters grow more frequent, the accompanying social challenges will demand innovative solutions and a commitment to justice such as implementing technology to map climate change and tracing criminals. Looking at the current scenarios and future needs, it is estimated that a 1 percent increase in police force can bring down murders by 0.67 percent. We can hope for a sustainable, equitable, and secure future by addressing these interconnected issues.
The cattle raids in Kenya, The LA wildfires, and many other crimes are forewarning for the world. They remind us that inaction carries a cost measured in environmental degradation and human suffering. This is the time to act before the dark side of climate change becomes an even greater shadow over our future.
References:
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Hifz Ur Rehman is a passionate forensic scientist and science writer. He started the science magazine “The Forensic Factor” under the Pakistan Young Forensist Society. Hifz is working towards bridging the gap between forensic science and society, to ensure justice for everyone.
