South Asia is home to some of the world’s fastest-growing regions and a vast, dynamic human capital. It is achieving notable economic progress due to its numerous natural reserves of global importance. However, this region is also vulnerable to sudden shifts in climate and weather patterns, including massive floods, droughts, cyclones, and extreme heat waves that pose a significant risk to its growth trajectory, infrastructure, and people’s livelihoods. 2
Pakistan is a country with rich natural reservoirs of land and water resources. The entire economy of Pakistan is dependent upon raw agricultural produce and products. Farmers like Abdul Raheem now face an uncertain future in the heart of Punjab, where lush green fields once promised abundant harvests and vast arrays of crop fields.
For generations, agriculture has been the backbone of Pakistan’s economy, with crops such as wheat, rice, cotton, and sugarcane dominating exports. But the sudden shifts in climate change have thrown the sector into turmoil, leaving a hopeless situation for local farmers.
“It’s not like it used to be,” says Abdul Raheem, a third-generation farmer from Faisalabad. “We used to have clear seasons, winter, summer, monsoon; everything was predictable. Now, it feels like the weather has a mind of its own.” His words reflect a sentiment shared by many other farmers across the country.
The entire vicinity of densely populated cities of Punjab province depended upon the factories that processed agricultural products from sowing to harvesting and packaging and marketing. However, the breakdown faced by local people, mainly due to the shift in weather patterns, is devastatingly affecting the livelihoods.
In recent years, erratic rainfall, prolonged droughts, and unexpected temperature shifts have wreaked havoc on agricultural yields. The once-reliable monsoon season now brings either torrential downpours that flood fields or a disappointing drizzle that barely wets the soil. “The wheat that should be thriving is struggling, and the cotton is no better,” Abdul Raheem laments.
Research indicates that shifting rainfall patterns have affected various crops by 6–15 Percent, with rain-fed crops like wheat experiencing reductions of up to 15 percent. This decline does not include the effects of heat waves and floods. 5
Experts warn that Pakistan’s reliance merely on agriculture-based exports makes it especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The Rabi and Kharif crop cycles, traditionally dependable, have become unpredictable. Rabi crops like wheat and barley, typically sown in November, now face delays due to late rains. Similarly, Kharif crops such as rice and sugarcane suffer from fluctuating weather conditions that disturb their growth cycles.
“These disruptions are not just about food security,” explains an environmental scientist. “Agriculture is tied to our economy, livelihoods, and even health. Poor yields mean rising food prices, economic instability, and malnutrition in rural areas.”
The problem isn’t confined to rural Pakistan. Urban areas, too, feel the effects as imported fruits and vegetables fill markets due to dwindling local produce. Farmers, struggling to adapt, are turning to short-term solutions like excessive water usage, which further depletes resources.
World organizations have stepped in, offering solutions to mitigate the crisis. Initiatives like climate-resilient farming, crop diversification, and water conservation are being promoted. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is working with Pakistan to introduce drought-resistant crop varieties and improve irrigation systems. Yet, for farmers like Abdul Raheem, these efforts often feel like drops in an ocean of challenges.
Statistical data states that climate change is posing a serious threat to Pakistan’s agriculture, with projections indicating an 8-10 percent decline in agricultural production by 2040. Key crops such as wheat and Basmati rice are expected to suffer significantly, with wheat yields potentially decreasing by 6 percent and Basmati rice by 15-18 percent due to rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns. This is especially alarming given the critical role agriculture plays in Pakistan’s economy and food security. 6
“The land is shrinking,” Abdul Raheem says, referring to the relentless encroachment of urbanization and deforestation, leading to a stark reduction in arable land. As cities and urban areas expand with unending infrastructure projects claiming vast stretches of farmland, the availability of fertile soil for agriculture comes to a halt gradually. This loss of productive land is further compounded by climate change, soil degradation, and erratic weather patterns, all of which make traditional farming increasingly difficult for local farmers.
In many regions of the world, particularly Pakistan, deforestation is not just stripping the land of its trees but also disrupting delicate ecological cycles, food chains, and food webs. Forests act as natural water reservoirs, regulating rainfall patterns and, in turn, maintaining soil fertility. Their destruction leads to increased soil erosion, making the ground less capable of supporting crops. As a result, farmers struggle with declining yields, forcing many to either abandon agriculture or adopt unsustainable practices that further degrade the land for good.
Additionally, the depletion of water resources exacerbates the crisis. As groundwater levels drop and rivers dry up due to overuse, increasing pollutants, and climate shifts, irrigation becomes more challenging. Without sufficient water, even the most fertile land cannot sustain crops, threatening overall food production locally and simultaneously on a large scale.
This situation creates a chain reaction: food shortages lead to rising prices, making basic nutrition inaccessible to lower-income populations, ultimately affecting a nation’s food security and economic crash.
For countries with rapidly growing populations, like Pakistan, this shrinking land availability presents a significant challenge for all the tiers involved. With more mouths to feed and fewer resources to do so, governments and communities must rethink their agricultural strategies.
Solutions such as vertical farming, precision agriculture, and sustainable land management practices can help mitigate some of these challenges. However, without any unplanned and immediate action to curb unchecked urban growth and environmental degradation, the struggle to provide food for future generations will only become more difficult with time.
Abdul Raheem’s concerns reflect a global reality, one where land, once abundant and fertile, is now a contested resource. The urgency to address these issues has never been greater, as the very foundation of human survival depends on our ability to preserve and sustain the land that feeds us.
Despite the grim outlook, some experts still stress that hope isn’t lost. Reforestation projects, investment in renewable energy, and education on sustainable farming practices can pave the way for a more secure future.
“There are heatwaves and dust storms in Gwadar,” says Ahmed. “But the main impact of climate change here is that there is too much water and not enough of it. If nothing is done to address this problem, we will have no option but to retreat.” 1
The challenges posed by climate change are daunting, but Pakistan’s farmers are resilient. They stand on the frontlines, battling not just the elements but also the systemic issues that have left the agricultural sector vulnerable.
To address the challenges posed by climate change and land destruction, the government of Pakistan must implement comprehensive adaptation and mitigation strategies. This includes investing in climate-resilient agricultural practices, such as drought-tolerant crop varieties, efficient irrigation systems, and sustainable land management techniques.
Additionally, the government focuses on updating the early warning system to provide farmers with timely information about impending extreme weather events and also raising funds for local farmers to go for alternate options for earning livelihoods. 3
As the world continues its battle against climate change, farmers like Abdul Raheem remind us that every effort counts for their fields, their families, and the nation’s future.
References:
- https://tribune.com.pk/story/2526931/rising-sea-levels-extreme-weather-endanger-gwadar
- https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/endpovertyinsouthasia/south-asia-rising-to-the-challenge–from-climate-vulnerability-t
- https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2025/01/27/climate-change-a-growing-threat-to-pakistans-agriculture/
- https://www.eco-business.com/news/climate-change-and-botched-policies-push-pakistan-toward-food-insecurity/
- https://www.eco-business.com/news/climate-change-and-botched-policies-push-pakistan-toward-food-insecurity/
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Muniba Usman is a high school teacher and teaching trainer by profession. She has a BS (HONS) in Microbiology and a diploma in Textile and Fashion design. She has a strong passion for research, arts, reading and writing. She has written many scientific articles and fiction stories for children.
