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Can Your Brain Really Grow New Cells? Exploring the Hype and Hope of Neuroplasticity

Maryam Zehra
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Can Your Brain Really Grow New Cells? Exploring the Hype and Hope of Neuroplasticity

For more than a century, that belief reigned over the field of neuroscience like gospel. Neurons, the core units of thinking, feeling, connecting, remembering, and coordinating, were considered one-time miracles. Born in the womb, matured in youth, and then fated to fade without replacement. While all other cells of the body had replication power to some extent, some more than others. Even the Kidney and liver had their own replication ability to some extent, the neurons were rendered undividable. 

And yet, deep inside the hippocampus of an adult brain, a spark refused to go out. In July 2025, a team of researchers led by Jonas Frisén at Karolinska Institutet made headlines. They reported something long suspected but rarely proven. The adult human brain continues to produce new neurons, even into old age.

In a 2025 press release, Frisén’s team announced they had successfully pinpointed the origin cells responsible for neuron formation in adults, reinforcing the idea that neurogenesis continues in the hippocampus throughout life. While this wasn’t the first report of adult neurogenesis, it stood out as one of the most convincing yet.

The findings, published in Science, stemmed from work by Ionut Dumitru and collaborators across Sweden and Europe. Using cutting-edge RNA sequencing and machine learning, the researchers analyzed over 100,000 individual cells from post-mortem hippocampal tissue. Using transcriptomic analysis, the team identified 354 neural progenitor cells in adolescent and adult human hippocampus samples.

The cells were showing clear signatures of neurogenesis. This included 12 adolescent and 65 adult neural stem cells, 4 adolescent and 71 adult intermediate neural progenitors (INPs), and 202 adult neuroblasts. The data pointed toward something long believed impossible: dividing neural progenitor cells in the adult brain.

The Contested History of Growing New Brain Cells

The history of adult neurogenesis is filled with hope, denial, rediscovery, and relentless debate. In the early 20th century, the scientific world was ruled by a firm belief that the adult brain was incapable of producing new neurons. In 1913, neuroanatomist Santiago Ramón y Cajal famously proclaimed that adult neural circuits were fixed and unchangeable, stating that while everything else may perish, nothing in the adult brain could regenerate. And for decades, this “neuron doctrine” held the brain hostage.

Cells
In adult centers, the neural routes are fixed, terminated, and immutable. Nothing can be guaranteed to live forever ~(Santiago Ramón y Cajal, 1913).

Then came a seismic shift. In the 1960s, Joseph Altman observed what few believed possible: newly formed neurons in the adult rat brain. His work, followed by Fernando Nottebohm’s discoveries in songbirds during the 1980s, cracked the door open on the possibility that the adult brain wasn’t as inert as once thought. 

The breakthrough into human territory arrived in 1998, when Peter Eriksson and colleagues examined postmortem brain tissue of cancer patients who had been administered BrdU (Bromodeoxyuridine). It showed newborn neurons in the dentate gyrus. Then, in 2013, Jonas Frisén’s lab used an unconventional but ingenious method, carbon-14 dating, a tool borrowed from nuclear fallout, to estimate that the adult human hippocampus adds around 700 new neurons per day. 

The optimism was short-lived. In 2018, a major rebuttal hit the literature like a thunderclap. Shawn Sorrells and his team, after examining hippocampal samples across ages, found no evidence of neurogenesis in adults, not even in teenagers. Their conclusion was blunt. Neurogenesis, they argued, plummets after childhood and cannot be detected in the adult brain.

This bombshell reignited long-standing tensions. Was everyone else seeing ghosts? In the same year, the Transmitter magazine summarized the climate of uncertainty perfectly. Juan Arellan, a research scientist in neuroscience at Yale University, acknowledged the uncertainty, suggesting that while some cells may exist, their functional importance remains questionable.

Shawn Sorrells, assistant professor of neuroscience at the University of Pittsburgh, further asserted that even if adult neurogenesis exists, it is likely so infrequent that it has minimal significance. The controversy didn’t just cast doubt; it destabilized the entire research trajectory.

Fast forward to now, armed with single-nucleus RNA sequencing (snRNA-seq), machine learning, and multiplexed fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH), researchers are finally starting to chart a clearer picture. In 2024, the team led by Marta Paterlini and Ionut Dumitru at Karolinska Institutet published one of the most comprehensive molecular maps of neurogenesis in the human brain.

By integrating transcriptomic data from humans, mice, pigs, and primates, they uncovered a “full trajectory” of neurogenesis-related cell types, including neural stem cells, intermediate progenitors, and neuroblasts, even in adult brains. The key shift? Rigor and resolution. As Marta Paterlini noted that identifying neurogenesis isn’t about a single marker; it’s about interpreting a constellation of molecular signatures.

Using multiple converging lines of evidence helps differentiate true neurons from glial cells or dead-cell debris, a major flaw in earlier studies. According to Evgenia Salta from the Netherlands Institute for Neuroscience, the recent findings may finally map the entire sequence of neurogenesis, including in adult humans for the first time. The ambiguity, it seems, is finally giving way to clarity. 

A Division That Raises More Questions Than Answers

Even with mounting evidence, the reality of adult neurogenesis remains a paradox. The numbers are small. The cells are rare. Out of over 100,000 analyzed hippocampal cells, only 354 bore the molecular hallmarks of being part of the neurogenic lineage. That’s less than half a percent. And yet, those rare few could be rewriting everything we know about how the brain ages, adapts, and possibly heals.

Cells
Among 100,000 analyzed hippocampal cells, only 354 bore the neurogenic lineage. (Credits: Sciepro/Getty Images/Verywell Mind)

But this revelation comes with a storm of unanswered questions. If these neural progenitors exist, what activates them? Do they functionally integrate into existing circuits, or are they simply biochemical relics of a developmental program now mostly dormant? What factors determine their survival and maturation? Could lifestyle, disease, trauma, or pharmacological agents influence their proliferation? And most importantly, does adult neurogenesis actually matter?

The skeptics argue that the numbers are too small to make any real impact. Supporters say even a tiny amount of new neurons, if targeted correctly, could be the difference between memory loss and memory retention, between recovery and decline. Then there’s the question of regional specificity: Why the hippocampus? Why not the cortex or cerebellum?

If the hippocampus retains this flicker of regenerative ability, is it a vestigial feature or a gateway to therapeutic strategies we’ve barely begun to imagine? Every new finding answers one question and raises ten more. But in science, that’s how revolutions start.

A Spark of Hope: What If the Brain Can Heal Itself?

Imagine a world where brain injury isn’t a life sentence. Where memory loss from aging or Alzheimer’s could be slowed, reversed, or even prevented. Where stroke recovery involves not just compensation, but regeneration. That’s the frontier adult neurogenesis opens.

Though limited, the confirmed presence of neurogenic activity in the adult brain cracks open a door long thought sealed shut. If we can harness this biological process, boost it, mimic it, and direct it, we might be able to design therapies for some of the most devastating neurological disorders.

In depression, studies have already linked reduced hippocampal neurogenesis with chronic stress and mood disorders. Some antidepressants are thought to work, in part, by stimulating neurogenesis. If we better understand this mechanism, we could develop faster-acting, more effective treatments.

In Alzheimer’s disease, where the hippocampus is one of the first casualties, reviving the birth of neurons might offer a way to delay or soften the cognitive blow. Could neural stem cells be preserved or reactivated before memory decline sets in? In traumatic brain injury or stroke, could artificially stimulating these progenitor populations lead to real structural repair? And beyond disease, the prospect of enhancing plasticity in the aging brain is electrifying. What if lifelong learning didn’t have to plateau? What if the “set in stone” adult brain was far more malleable than we’ve been led to believe?

As Frisén and Dumitru’s work gains traction, scientists are now racing to uncover the molecular signals, environmental cues, and epigenetic landscapes that govern neurogenesis. The dream isn’t just to observe it anymore. The dream is to control it. Because 354 cells may not sound like much, but if they can fire, connect, and remember, they just might be enough to reboot how we see the brain altogether.

Is it Hype or Hope? 

Maybe it’s both. The idea that adult humans can grow new brain cells was once scientific heresy. Today, it’s cautious optimism backed by single-nucleus sequencing and fluorescent in situ hybridization. But while the data spark wonder, they don’t yet promise miracles. The truth lies in the tension between rarity and possibility.

Even if neurogenesis in adults is limited, its mere existence hints at untapped reservoirs of repair and resilience. Maybe we won’t regenerate memories tomorrow, but the map is finally forming. And that’s the first step toward turning speculation into science, and science into healing.

References

You might also like: Adult Fruit Fly Brain Mapped: A Giant Leap to Understand the Human Brain?

Bugs in Your Bites: How Insects Sneak into Food Packages and What You Can Do

Salsabeel Ahmed
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Bugs in Your Bites: How Insects Sneak into Food Packages and What You Can Do

A week after buying a bag of rice from a trusted store, I opened it only to find tiny insects crawling through the grains. The bag was properly closed, stored in a clean, dry place, and there were no signs of pests anywhere else in my kitchen. Yet somehow, an infestation appeared out of nowhere!

I remembered a thought I’d once had, and I’m sure it has crossed many people’s minds at some point: Do insects in stored grains really come from nowhere? Could they just form inside the food on their own?!

Finding insects in stored grains isn’t a rare case. Many people have had the same issue with rice, flour, oats, and other dry grains. And according to studies, nearly 20% of the world’s stored grains are lost due to insect infestation, and in some places, that number is even higher.

“Insect pests currently consume the equivalent of 1 out of every 12 loaves of bread (before it ever gets made). By the end of this century, if climate change continues unabated, insects will be eating more than 2 loaves of every 12 that could have been made”, said Curtis Deutsch, the researcher and co-author at the University of Washington, to BBC News.

So, where do these insects come from? And more importantly, can we prevent them from invading our food?

How do Insects in Stored Grains get into the Sealed Bags?

Even if the bag looks perfectly fine at first, and you’ve stored it in a clean, dry place, insects can still find their way in or even chew their way through.

Some types, like the larvae of Indian meal moths, are known to bite through thin plastic, cardboard, and paper packaging just to reach the food inside. And for other insects, a tiny hole in the package or even a gap between the container and its lid is more than enough. Another thing is that if there’s already an infested item nearby, it’s very easy for insects to move from one bag to another.

What makes things worse is that most insects in stored grains thrive in warm, humid environments, like a kitchen shelf in summer. If the cupboard isn’t cleaned regularly, with bits of rice, flour, or crumbs lying around, it becomes even more inviting. And while we usually think they feed only on grains, some species can survive on dried fruit, spices, pet food, and even the cardboard packaging itself!

But what if you did everything right, and the insects still appeared?

You kept the grains in a properly sealed container, stored them in a dry cupboard, and made sure your kitchen was clean; there were no tears, not even a tiny hole; however, weeks later, you found insects inside.

So, how did insects in Stored Grains penetrate the container and get in there?

You might be surprised, but some insects in stored grains don’t even need to break in; their eggs were hidden in the grains long before you bought them home! Certain species of insects – such as weevils, grain moths, and some types of beetles- lay their eggs directly inside grains or seeds during storage, transport, or even earlier at the harvesting stage.

If proper pest control methods aren’t applied early on, or if the grains aren’t thoroughly cleaned and inspected during packaging, those eggs can end up sealed inside the bag. And then you buy one of those bags that seem perfectly clean to you, but that doesn’t mean they’re egg-free.

Eggs of grain insects are incredibly small. They are also white, translucent, and nearly invisible to the naked eye. They remain in the bag, hidden inside the grains, until conditions become favorable (such as warmth and humidity). At that point, the eggs hatch into larvae that feed on the grain from within, then pupate and eventually emerge as adult insects: the stage most people finally notice.

insects
Life cycle of a beetle (as an example of stored product insects). Photo: Environmentalpest

So, by the time you bought that sealed bag, it was already carrying invisible eggs inside the grains, waiting for the right conditions to hatch and cause an insect infestation later. Not because your food went bad or your kitchen wasn’t clean, but simply because the eggs were there all along.

The Following are some Useful Tips to Keep Insects Out of Your Food!

Start with Smart Shopping

Before grains even enter your kitchen, inspect packaging carefully. Look for small holes, clumped grains, or fine powder—these subtle signs can hint at hidden pests. Choose stores with high product turnover, where items move quickly off shelves. The less time a bag sits in storage, the lower the chance of infestation. If possible, opt for brands known for strict quality control during packaging.

At Home: Freeze First and Store Right

Once you bring grains home, an easy trick is to freeze them for 3–4 days. This kills any undetected eggs or larvae without affecting quality. After freezing, transfer the grains to airtight containers made of glass, metal, or thick plastic. Flimsy materials like cardboard or thin sacks are easy targets for r insects in stored grains; they can chew through or sneak into gaps. A tight seal is always your best defense.

Insects
Airtight food storage containers.
Maintain a Pest-Resistant Pantry

Store containers in a cool, dry spot, far from moisture or spilled food remnants. Regularly wipe shelves and vacuum corners to remove crumbs that might attract pests. Practice the “first in, first out” rule: use older grains before opening new packages, and avoid bulk-buying more than you’ll use in a few months. The less time food sits unused, the fewer opportunities bugs have to settle in.

Insects already in your food? Here’s what to do!

Now that you know how to prevent future infestations, what if you’re already dealing with insects in your food? Is it still safe to eat your food while there are bugs, or should you toss it? The answer depends on a few simple factors.

It can be a bit shocking, but don’t panic; seeing insects in food doesn’t always mean the food is ruined. If you only see a few insects here and there, and the grains still look and smell normal, you can simply rinse them well and still use them. Cooking will kill any hidden larvae or eggs.

Even if you accidentally eat one, it’s not dangerous. Food safety experts say it’s not a health risk at all. In fact, there’s actually an “acceptable” limit. According to the FDA, up to 75 insect fragments are allowed per 50 grams of wheat flour!

When should you throw food/grains away?

However, there are clear signs when food should be discarded. If you find grains full of live insects, webs, or strange smells, it’s safer to throw them out. In that case, the food may have started to spoil or lose its quality.

it may also grow fungi and could contain harmful mycotoxins, which are toxic compounds that are naturally produced by certain types of molds and can cause serious health problems. What makes them even more dangerous is that many mycotoxins are heat-stable, meaning they can survive standard cooking temperatures. So, eating the grains might not be safe anymore.

After throwing the bag away, make sure to clean the area where you kept it, especially corners and hard-to-reach spots. Vacuuming is the best way to get rid of any crawling insects or tiny eggs. Then wipe the surface dry and store new grains in sealed containers. That’s the only way to make sure the problem doesn’t come back. And one last thing, never spray insecticides near your food. They don’t fix the problem, and could make the food unsafe to eat.

Insects in stored grains can be pretty annoying, even a little gross. But it’s good to know that it doesn’t take much to keep them away. With a few easy habits and a bit of attention, you can protect your food and keep your kitchen clean

So no, insects don’t magically appear out of nowhere. But if you ever find one in your rice again, at least now you know… they’ve probably been waiting for the right time to say hello!

References: 

You might also like: A conversation with Dr. Muniapann about the biological invasion and pest management practices in Nepal

The Time is Now: Urgent Need for a Bold Call to Action for Universal Health Coverage in Pakistan

Yasir Ahmad
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The Time is Now: Urgent Need for a Bold Call to Action for Universal Health Coverage in Pakistan

It was a sunny July afternoon when Sameer, a 45-year-old resident of Swat, rushed his mother to a nearby private hospital because her chest pain was becoming unbearable. However, the hospital quoted treatment costs that were two-thirds of Sameer’s monthly income. Overwhelmed by his mother’s falling health, he took his mother to a public hospital, where the area was already overcrowded.

He stood in line with his head bowed down, grappling with unspeakable feelings as he waited for his turn to obtain an emergency slip. After a few moments, he was handed a list of necessary investigations and medications, which were far beyond his salary and savings. At that moment, his emotions peaked; the weight of unsaid words hung on his tongue as he whispered with a heavy heart, “How can I pay for my mother’s life, provide food for my children, or endure the unending pain of debt?”

This moment captures a glimpse of the millions of people like Sameer who face similar situations daily. They sell their jewelry, livestock, and gamble with their savings to cover medical expenses. Although we advocate for “health for all,” the reality remains a harsh struggle between paying for life and falling into poverty. Stories like these raise alarm bells for Universal Health Coverage every day.

What is Universal Health Coverage?

Universal health coverage means that everyone has access to essential health services without facing financial hardship. The World Health Organization defines it through two main domains: service coverage and financial protection. It is not a luxury or a charity; it is a basic human right. Universal health coverage ensures that families can access essential healthcare without risking a financial downturn that leads to poverty.

Why is it so Important?

Imagine walking on a tightrope with a safety net beneath you to catch you if you fall. The tighter and broader the safety net, the greater the chances it will prevent you from experiencing a traumatic fall. Health emergencies—such as heart attacks, stroke, complications during childbirth, and chronic diseases like kidney failure, thalassemia, and cancer—can deplete your savings and possessions, potentially driving you into poverty.

Universal health coverage acts as a safety net, minimizing your financial burdens during these crises. It transforms health care from a gamble into a guarantee, ensuring that health shocks do not trap you in lifelong poverty.

How it Affects Our Health System and Economic Growth

Universal Health Coverage (UHC) is a basic human right that is so crucial that the World Health Organization (WHO) has included it in its Sustainable Development Goals for 2030. Efficient health coverage ensures a healthy population, which leads to greater productivity, economic growth, and a reduction in early school dropouts, child labor, and other social issues. However, gaps in UHC have dire consequences, resulting in a shortage of healthcare staff, medicines, and decaying infrastructure.

This situation forces patients to incur out-of-pocket expenses, trapping them in a cycle of debt and poverty for many years. This leads to delays in seeking care, causing serious diseases to go undiagnosed until they reach a fatal stage. Even when diseases are diagnosed at advanced stages, the immense financial burden of treatment places an unbearable strain on low-income families, turning a diagnosis into a death sentence.

Populations with inadequate Universal Health Coverage (UHC) experience delays in immunizations and insufficient healthcare, leading to higher rates of mortality and disabilities. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), during the COVID-19 pandemic, weak health systems resulted in 25 million children missing routine vaccinations in 2021.

By mid-2023, only 34% of individuals in low-income countries had received COVID-19 vaccinations, compared to 73% in high-income countries. Additionally, countries with high out-of-pocket healthcare costs saw approximately 344 million people fall into extreme poverty and 1.3 billion people into relative poverty in 2019 due to medical expenses.

Therefore, the WHO and its partners emphasize that health spending should be viewed as an investment rather than a cost and must be prioritized.

What’s Happening in Pakistan?

Universal health coverage is a pressing issue in war-affected countries like Pakistan, where funding for this purpose is limited. Unfortunately, public hospitals in Pakistan are severely underfunded, with the country spending less than 1% of its GDP on public health.

This is in stark contrast to the World Health Organization’s recommendation of spending 5% of GDP on basic and universal health coverage. As a result, financial coverage for healthcare is inadequate, leading to an overwhelming dominance of private hospitals in healthcare expenditures.

Pakistan’s health sector has approximately 52.6% of health expenditure that is private, and nearly 89% of it comes directly out of patients’ pockets. This situation forces families into a cycle of illness, debt, and poverty.

What are real-life stories?

Chronic underfunding leads to multiple gaps in the safety net of Universal Health Coverage, causing families to fall into poverty due to healthcare-related expenses. For instance, Kashif explains that his three-year-old son suffers from recurrent chest infections due to a genetic disease. Each time he is admitted to the hospital, the treatment costs him around two-thirds of his monthly income.

Sometimes, government hospitals are so overcrowded that there are no available beds, even for sharing with other patients. As a result, he has to admit his son to a private hospital, further worsening his financial situation and leaving him in debt that he has yet to pay off.

Dr. Zia Ullah, a resident pediatrician, states that these soaring expenses at government hospitals deter families from seeking treatment, leading them to rely on unqualified practitioners, which further exacerbates their children’s conditions.

The financial burden from these healthcare costs often drives parents into poverty, forcing them to rely on less nutritious food for their children, resulting in malnourished kids. This creates a cycle that can lead to a future generation plagued with various diseases and ultimately a less productive society.

Similarly, Niaz Ali, a rickshaw driver, shares that he suffers from diabetes and needs five to eight insulin shots each month, which cost him one-third of his income. This financial burden forces him to rely on charity for his treatment. At times, he has to skip doses because he has to choose between buying medicine and paying for his children’s school fees, putting himself at risk of severe consequences.

The situation becomes even worse for expectant mothers who need proper nutrition and healthcare. Razia, a 33-year-old mother, says it costs them around 8,000 rupees just to travel to the hospital for antenatal care. The additional costs for ultrasounds, investigations, and other medications exhaust their savings from daily wages, leading them to rely on less nutritious food and sometimes skip meals. This results in serious consequences, jeopardizing both the mother’s and the child’s health.

“Many families defer prenatal care, which can often lead to stillbirths, miscarriages, and genetic diseases that could be prevented with early interventions”, says Dr Iqra, who is a resident gynecologist.

These aren’t isolated tales; they reflect the everyday reality for millions of people. When illness strikes, many households are forced to sell livestock or land, cut back on food, or abandon education to pay for medical expenses. Poorer families suffer the most, as treatment and medication are often unaffordable without support. This vicious cycle of illness → debt → poverty—will persist unless public funding is significantly increased.

What are Pakistan’s Initiatives?

In response to various healthcare crises, Pakistan has launched multiple initiatives. In 2015, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) government launched the Sehat Sahulat Programme (SSP) to cover healthcare expenses for individuals from targeted groups. This initiative later expanded to other provinces in Pakistan. In 2020, it was made universal for all residents of KP, and later, the federal government also expanded it to the entire population in 2022.

The inclusion of private hospitals in this program has made it more appealing, as these facilities often have better infrastructure and equipment and are more accessible than government hospitals. This has enabled people to access private healthcare services, similar to those available to higher socioeconomic groups.

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Brief History of Sehat Sahulat Program. Photo, https://pide.org.pk/research/making-sehat-sahulat-program-sustainable/

Moreover, the recent increase in funding for this program in the KP government budget, from 28 billion to 35 billion, along with an extra 6 billion for the merged districts, marks a significant step toward ensuring its sustainability. As a result, healthcare has become more accessible, and many people are now seeking medical services through this program.

For instance, Abdul Wahab mentioned that he underwent three surgeries under the Sehat Card Plus Programme, which cost him very little compared to a previous surgery that had taken up two months’ worth of his salary. The inclusion of C-sections, normal deliveries, post-operative care, and other maternal surgeries has made these services more appealing, as more mothers are opting for them. This choice helps prevent delivery complications and reduces maternal mortality, thus improving maternal and child healthcare.

Similarly, surgeries such as appendectomies, gallbladder removals, and tonsillectomies, which were previously performed infrequently, have seen a significant increase in demand. More people are choosing these procedures under the Sehat Card, allowing them timely intervention and preventing potential complications.

Furthermore, the inclusion of transplant operations—such as liver, kidney, bone marrow, and cochlear implants—has made this initiative groundbreaking, as these surgeries are essential for improving the quality of life for patients who depend on them.

A recent 2024 report on Universal Health Coverage (UHC) in Pakistan indicates that the Service Coverage Index stood at 53.9 by the end of 2023, reflecting a 35.8% improvement since 2015 and a 2.2% increase since 2022. Although we are progressing at a relatively slow pace, this progress warrants recognition. Advancing towards UHC is a continuous effort, and acknowledging these improvements is more significant than simply achieving the goal itself.

What are the pitfalls of these initiatives?

Although these insurance initiatives have yielded promising results, the program still encounters a few challenges. Dr Seema Mohmand, a public health expert, notes that most of the participating hospitals in these programs are private. This situation means that the government is funding the private sector more than it is supporting public hospitals.

The funds for these initiatives come from the total health expenditure, leading to a focus on insurance activities rather than improvements in primary healthcare facilities. She stated that government funding is equally distributed among both the poor and the rich, which is depleting many resources. With this approach, universal health insurance may become unsustainable amid rising inflation.

Additionally, Dr. Mohmand explains that there is a lack of monitoring and accountability for these initiatives, which can result in the overuse of costly procedures performed under the program. Without proper oversight and accountability, these initiatives may struggle to break the cycle of poverty. She emphasizes that our primary aim should be “to strengthen our healthcare facilities so that even the poorest individuals can access services without having to choose between health and poverty.”

Voices from the Field

Although progress has been made in achieving Universal Health Coverage (UHC), out-of-pocket health expenditures still account for 48.86% of total health spending. Dr. Seema Mohmand emphasizes that while UHC initiatives typically target large hospitals, there should be a particular focus on primary health care, which is a fundamental pillar of UHC. The poor in rural areas rely on these free clinics, and strengthening them would help us achieve significant breakthroughs in UHC.

Dr Awais, a public health expert, points out that healthcare funding issues from less than 1% of our GDP. With such limited funding, we cannot expand our insurance schemes to achieve UHC; substantial new budget support is essential. The government should make concerted efforts to upgrade hospital infrastructure, improve the affordability and availability of emergency medicine, and ensure access to imaging machines, electricity, and adequate staff.

These improvements are crucial so that people do not have to wait in emergency or outpatient departments while their loved ones struggle for life. Strengthening our hospitals is vital for achieving our UHC goals.

Charting the Way Forward: What Strategies Should We Adopt?

According to Dr Seema Mohmand, to break the vicious cycle of illness and poverty, policymakers must allocate more than 1% of GDP to healthcare. Health is a basic right for every individual, regardless of their financial situation. Policymakers should work to increase health funding to meet the 5% GDP goal recommended by the WHO. Special emphasis should be placed on diverting funds to primary healthcare and public hospitals so that the rural population can benefit as well.

She outlined the following key strategies:

  • Investment in Primary Healthcare: Strengthening local clinics, implementing preventive strategies, and training community health workers can yield significant health improvements at a low cost. This approach would greatly reduce out-of-pocket expenses, making the “Health for All” initiative a reality.
  • Increase Health Budget: Raise the health budget above 1% of GDP and view this as an investment that can produce broader economic benefits. Consistent efforts should be made to gradually increase health budgets without applying cuts. Tax revenues from tobacco and sugary drinks could be redirected to fund the health sector.
  • Expand Health Insurance: Extend health insurance programs to rural areas and local clinics to prevent diseases and minimize the transportation costs for patients traveling to larger hospitals. Ensure that the Sehat Sahulat programs are funded consistently and remain unaffected by political instability.
  • Limit the services to low-income individuals. Given the country’s significant debt and the large portion of our budget directed towards interest payments, it will be challenging to sustain universal health insurance if we provide equal services to all citizens. Therefore, policymakers should focus on serving the underserved, poor, and marginalized populations to alleviate the financial burden and ensure continuous funding for this program.
  • Promote competition among insurance companies. Currently, State Life Insurance Corporation (SLIC) is the only provider responsible for these services, raising concerns about its performance. Relying on a single company hinders the potential for innovative solutions. The government should encourage the involvement of multiple insurance providers to foster fair competition and enhance the quality of services offered.
  • Develop a national health financing network. There is currently no consensus regarding the future of this program, which is often influenced by political dynamics. A comprehensive roadmap should be established, incorporating input from all provinces and major stakeholders, to create a plan that minimizes political interference and ensures the program’s continuity, regardless of changes in government.
  • Invest in Public Infrastructure: Improving public healthcare facilities by enhancing staffing, providing adequate medical supplies and equipment, and ensuring bed availability so that the poorest individuals can receive treatment without having to revert to private healthcare.
  • Establish New Healthcare Facilities: The government should work to establish new healthcare facilities, aiming to provide services through public-private partnerships.
  • Support Local Pharmaceutical Companies: Assist local pharmaceutical and biotech companies to ensure affordable pricing for life-saving medications. Price control should be regulated and prevent shortages of essential medicines.
  • Leverage Technology: With the evolving landscape of healthcare, artificial intelligence and telemedicine should be integrated effectively. Clinicians and developers must collaborate to advance health technologies.
  • Strengthen International Collaboration: The government should enhance partnerships with international agencies such as the WHO and UN to secure aid and support for expanding universal health coverage. Agreements should be made with companies, facilitated by these organizations, to ensure access to innovative treatments, vaccines, and cutting-edge technologies at an affordable cost.

Call to Action

To the policymakers: Your decisions are crucial. Expanding healthcare funding can mean the difference between millions of families, like Sameer’s, facing bankruptcy or walking out of hospitals with hope. Your actions today can shape the future for generations to come.

To the pharmaceutical and technology companies: Your products must combine hope with affordability. Creating innovative breakthroughs without ensuring affordability is merely a business strategy, not a commitment to safeguarding lives.

To the service providers and the general public: The government is making significant efforts to ensure access to healthcare and minimize the financial burden on citizens. Your cooperation is crucial for the successful delivery of these services. It is essential to prevent fraudulent insurance claims and reduce the irrational use of services solely for insurance benefits. The general public is encouraged to use these healthcare privileges responsibly and only when necessary.

To the science writers: Your stories play a vital role in highlighting these gaps and holding policymakers accountable. Your voice matters and can influence the future.

Universal health coverage is a basic human right and a smart investment, yet it remains elusive in war-affected, low socioeconomic countries like Pakistan. The stories of individuals like Sameer highlight the urgent need for its implementation. Although some progress has been made, without proper financing, accountability, and improved health budgets, these initiatives will only provide superficial hope amid a growing population.

By reinforcing primary care, expanding insurance coverage, and ensuring access to treatments for the most vulnerable, we can turn the “health for all” slogan into a reality. The 2030 Sustainable Development Goals demand bold changes in our healthcare policies. Let’s take action now, so no Pakistani family ever has to choose between medicine and meals.

References:

More from this Author: Swat Flood Tragedy: A Wake-Up Call on Climate Change, not a Headline to Forget

Interactive Learning: Board Games Leading the Charge in Disaster Risk Reduction

Mohammad Shaheer Khan
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Interactive Learning: Board Games Leading the Charge in Disaster Risk Reduction

Pakistan’s education system relies on traditional teaching methods, where students memorize textbooks to pass exams. This approach is common in schools across urban and rural areas, focusing on grades rather than building practical skills like problem-solving and teamwork. For Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) education, which is vital in a country prone to floods, earthquakes, and other disasters, this method falls short. One effective way to integrate DRR into the curriculum is through interactive games and simulations.

These tools can help students to understand complex concepts, such as flood risk management and earthquake preparedness, engaging them in experimentation. By incorporating games into the learning process, educators can foster a culture of resilience and preparedness among students, ultimately contributing to a safer and more disaster-resilient community. 

DRR requires practical, participatory skills and quick thinking, not just memorized facts. A new approach to DRR games is changing how students learn about disaster preparedness. These interactive games make learning engaging and memorable, offering a way to improve education across Pakistan.

By actively involving students in real-life scenarios through play, DRR games help them practice decision-making, teamwork, and problem-solving in a safe environment. This approach not only strengthens their knowledge but also builds confidence to respond effectively during actual disasters. In the long run, such experiential learning can bridge the gap between awareness and action, ensuring that disaster preparedness becomes a practical skill rather than just theoretical knowledge.

The Limitations of Traditional Education

In most classrooms, the teaching method hasn’t changed much in decades. Teachers read from textbooks, write notes on blackboards, and students rush to copy them before the class ends. The goal is to finish the syllabus and prepare for exams, not to help students understand or apply what they learn. This happens in cities, towns, and villages, but rural schools face bigger challenges because they have fewer books, tools, or trained teachers. Students learn to memorize answers, not to ask questions, nor try new ideas, or take risks, as these are rarely rewarded in the current system.

For DRR education, this traditional style is a grave problem. Disasters like earthquakes, flooding, and landslides don’t wait for someone to recall a textbook chapter. DRR demands fast decisions, teamwork, and practical knowledge. Yet, DRR lessons in schools are often limited to a single talk, a poster-making contest, or an “awareness day” once a year.

Without regular practice, students forget what they learn, leaving them unprepared for real emergencies. This gap in education means many students lack the skills to stay safe or help others during a disaster, which is a critical issue in a country like Pakistan, where disasters are common.

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Integrating disaster risk reduction (DRR) games into school programs does not require a complete curriculum overhaul. These activities can be incorporated into existing subjects such as Social Studies, Geography, or Science. Photo, Unsplash

The Power of DRR Games

DRR games are changing traditional teaching patterns by making lessons interactive and fun. Instead of sitting quietly listening, without asking questions, students become part of a pretend disaster scenario. They take on roles, such as community leaders or emergency planners, and face challenges with limited resources.

For example, in one game, students might need to prepare a village for a flood with a small budget. They decide whether to build flood walls, improve drainage, or teach people about safety. Each choice has consequences, and the game shows them what happens, helping them understand trade-offs in a safe, controlled way.

These games make DRR feel real. Students argue, plan, and work together, turning abstract ideas into experiences they can remember. Unlike lectures, games create a space where mistakes are allowed, so even shy students feel comfortable joining in. This collaborative environment not only improves communication and leadership skills but also nurtures empathy, as students learn to consider the needs of others while making decisions. By simulating real challenges, games prepare young people to think critically and act responsibly, qualities that are essential for building resilient communities in Pakistan.

Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Management, University of Peshawar, organised a DRR exhibition on 23rd February 2023. Students from various schools and university departments participated; hundreds of school children played DRR games in a single day.  School Teachers often notice that school children who rarely speak in class become active and excited during these activities. By making learning feel like a team mission, DRR games help students care about what they’re learning and remember it longer.

Evidence of Impact of DRR Gaming

The Centre for Disaster Preparedness & Management (CDPM), University of Peshawar, has provided clear evidence on its LinkedIn and Facebook pages that DRR games improve children’s understanding of disasters and what they can do during emergency phases.

In schools and youth programs in Peshawar, where CDPM has introduced these activities, students show a marked improvement in their understanding of disaster preparedness. They can explain why early warning systems or safe evacuation routes are important, and they become more confident in identifying dangers such as unsafe buildings or flood-prone areas.

These sessions also sharpen teamwork and creativity. After playing a DRR game, students often suggest practical, community-specific ideas like new ways to warn residents about an approaching storm, ideas they likely wouldn’t have developed from lectures alone. In post-game discussions, they describe what they’ve learned in vivid, personal terms, unlike peers who have only attended one-way awareness talks.

One teacher from a school participating in CDPM’s program summed it up well: “In one hour, they learned what I’ve been trying to teach for months.” Even short game sessions leave a lasting impression. Students remember more, feel more prepared, and can better translate knowledge into action.

DRR games aren’t meant to replace traditional lessons but to add a hands-on dimension that makes learning stick. Embedding these games into the regular education curriculum across Pakistan, especially in remote areas, can bring a positive change in students’ understanding. CDPM brings a transition in students from simply memorizing facts to actively using their knowledge, a shift that’s essential for meeting real-world challenges.

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Students perform an earthquake drill being led by Laleena Baseer at Government Girls Middle School in Araq, Swat, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Photo, UNICEF/PAKISTAN/Saiyna Bashir

Barriers to Accessing DRR Games

Adding DRR games-Despite their benefits, they are largely unavailable in educational institutions. Many schools, particularly in remote or low-income areas, have never used them due to logistical challenges and reliance on external organizations such as NGOs or universities.

As a result, these schools continue to use traditional methods, like lectures and textbooks, lacking the resources or knowledge to adopt new approaches. This leads to a disparity: students with access to DRR games develop practical emergency skills, while others receive only theoretical knowledge that is difficult to apply in real situations.

This disparity stems from unequal opportunities, not student abilities. Schools with DRR games can better prepare their students, while those without fall behind. Over time, this could create one group equipped to respond in crises and another left vulnerable due to a lack of practice. Notably, the most vulnerable are often in rural Pakistan, where disaster risk is higher.

To address this gap, schools require affordable game kits, trained teachers, and integration of DRR games into the regular curriculum. This approach ensures DRR games become a standard part of learning rather than relying on occasional external visits.

A Tool for Bigger Change

DRR games are more than just a way to teach about disasters; they provide opportunities to improve our teaching methods. Pakistan’s education system often encourages competition and memorization, whereas DRR games promote teamworking, thinking, questioning, and effective decision-making.

They allow students to practice defending their ideas and listening to others, skills that are useful in their future growth. By bringing energy to classrooms where learning is often quiet and individual, these games show students that learning can be active and exciting.

Adding DRR games to schools doesn’t mean rewriting the entire curriculum. They can easily fit into Social Studies, Geography, or Science subjects. Teachers can learn to use them in just a few hours of training. But, for a real change, schools need to experiment with these games regularly, not just once or twice a year. Consistent practice helps students develop habits of active learning, extending to other subjects, and helps create a more engaged school culture.

Recommendations for Wider Use

Integrating disaster risk reduction (DRR) games into school programs does not require a complete curriculum overhaul. These activities can be incorporated into existing subjects such as Social Studies, Geography, or Science. Teachers can acquire the necessary skills to implement DRR games through brief training sessions. However, meaningful impact depends on regular and sustained use of these games throughout the academic year.
Consistent engagement with DRR games fosters active learning habits among students, which may enhance participation across other disciplines and contribute to a more interactive school environment. Schools are encouraged to institutionalize DRR games as a standard component of educational practice.

Government and education policy experts should collaborate with NGOs and universities to share resources and introduce DRR games in remote areas. Pilot programs can assess effectiveness in both urban and rural schools. These initiatives will help integrate DRR games into school curricula, enabling students across Pakistan to be better prepared and more confident.

Conclusion

DRR games equip students with essential skills for navigating disasters, fostering teamwork, and problem-solving abilities for life. Moving beyond traditional, book-based learning, DRR games offer a way to create a more engaged, resilient generation. It starts with one classroom, one game, and one group of students, working together to face a challenge that matters. Bring DRR games to your classroom and help empower the next generation today. 

References:

Note: This article was prepared in collaboration with Climate Forward Pakistan, cfpakistan.org 

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Reviewing ‘The Business of Disaster’: A Critical Look at the Human Toll of Disaster Capitalism

Khadija Tariq
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Reviewing ‘The Business of Disaster’: A Critical Look at the Human Toll of Disaster Capitalism

In 2012, Superstorm Sandy ravaged the U.S. East Coast, leaving devastation in its wake. But what followed was more revealing than the storm itself, a slow, painful unravelling of a system meant to help but rigged to profit. The Business of Disaster, a powerful investigative documentary by FRONTLINE and NPR, investigates the hidden truth of disaster capitalism in America under the guise of disaster management, showing how private companies, insurance firms, and government agencies turned tragedy into a business opportunity.

President Barack Obama[The Then] himself visited Staten Island, affected by the flood, which raised the hopes of a lot of the residents, thinking they would receive help and be back in their homes soon. The President put his arms around Diane Camerada while telling her that he’ll take care of it. However, three years later, they were still living in a wrecked house with sandy stormwater in their fish tank.

The heart of the documentary is the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), managed by FEMA, a federal program designed to assist homeowners with flood recovery. Business of Disaster reveals that private insurance companies administering the claims were pocketing huge fees, millions in profits, while victims were left stranded.

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The town of Mantoloking, New Jersey, devastated by Superstorm Sandy, is pictured in April 2013, six months after the storm. Credit: (Julie Dermansky/Corbis via Getty Images)

Those companies bore no financial risk but were paid a third of the collected premiums, totalling around $400 million after Sandy. Meanwhile, countless homeowners like Doug Quinn were denied fair compensation. Engineers hired to inspect damaged homes often never visited the site, while reports were manipulated to reduce payouts. The very system built to support disaster victims became a mechanism for corporations to grow richer—turning human loss into lucrative business.

Doug Quin expressed his frustration as, “It makes me angry to watch the way people are profiting unfairly on other people’s misery”.

Business of Disaster also highlights the failure of New York City’s Build It Back program. Despite receiving billions in federal aid, the recovery process was plagued by inefficiency, mismanagement, and profiteering. Unqualified caseworkers were hired at high wages, consultants earned high fees, and families were forced to wait years for assistance—if they got any at all. Neighbourhoods were unevenly rebuilt. Some homes were raised, others ignored. Paperwork was lost; decisions were delayed, and trust in the government crumbled.

Relating to this slow Bureaucratic process, one of the interviewees said, “I saw that we as NYC, with all the best intentions, created a big, hard-to-understand, bureaucratic, slow, inefficient process for getting people funds or getting them back to their homes.”

This dysfunction wasn’t just technical; it was political. It exposed how aid is distributed unequally, how poor communities are left to fend for themselves, and how bureaucracy often becomes a barrier rather than a bridge. One must think about where exactly funds are being utilised. Are they sitting on an insurance officer’s coffee table in the form of an expensive antique, or are they paying for someone’s vacation abroad? Are they draped around a woman’s neck in the form of pearls?

Business of Disaster doesn’t stop at policy critique; it shows a deeper, darker pattern. When natural disasters hit, they don’t just reveal cracks in buildings; they expose cracks in society, showing us exactly how tactful, ludicrous, and heinous humans can be.

Those with privilege, connections, legal support, and financial backing often recover. But working-class families, immigrants, and marginalized groups face endless delays, denials, and displacement. It also shows how private interests, insurance companies, lobbyists, and consultants use disasters as an opportunity to secure public funds for private gain, shaping legislation and response systems to benefit themselves.

Perhaps the most haunting reflection this documentary offers lies between the lines: if this level of fraud, inefficiency, and exploitation is happening in a developed country like the U.S., what must be happening in third-world countries?

As climate change increases the frequency and severity of natural disasters, particularly in vulnerable regions like South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, many of these nations rely heavily on foreign aid and international disaster relief.

Nevertheless, without strong governance, oversight, or accountability, aid can be easily misused, misdirected, or monopolized by corrupt elites or foreign contractors. If the U.S., with all its institutions, cannot protect its citizens from disaster capitalism, what hope do developing countries have?

The Business of Disaster is more than a documentary; it is a warning. It urges us to question who benefits when tragedy strikes and whether systems meant to offer relief have become tools of exploitation.

As climate disasters become the new norm, the need for transparent, equitable, and humane recovery systems is more urgent than ever. Whether in the streets of Staten Island or the floodplains of Sindh, people deserve more than hollow promises and profit-driven aid—they deserve justice.

References:

https://www.npr.org/2016/05/25/479158048/business-of-disaster-local-recovery-programs-struggle-to-help-homeowners

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/documentary/business-of-disaster/transcript/

More from this Author: Death, Resilience, and Hope: A Review of “As Long As the Lemon Trees Grow 

Navigating Crisis: Dr Mujtaba Hassan on Space Technology’s Role in Disaster Management

Hifz Ur Rehman
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Navigating Crisis: Dr Mujtaba Hassan on Space Technology’s Role in Disaster Management

Hundreds died, a rescue helicopter crashed, villages submerged, families torn apart, weddings turned to funerals. These are news headlines you must have heard. But have you thought about why this all happened? We ignored nature warnings for so long, and now Pakistan is facing a climate-driven disaster.

From North to South, a surge in natural disasters has been experienced. Cloud bursts, flash floods, and landslides accompanied this season’s relentless monsoon rains. The scale of human suffering is staggering. Communities left to grapple with loss and livelihoods erased in moments. The overwhelming infrastructure in cities like Karachi and Rawalpindi could not resist the misery of citizens. Climate change is intensifying extreme events that were once rare.

The public and policymakers need to be aware of effective solutions for disaster preparedness and management. Scientia Magazine invites Dr Mujtaba Hassan to discuss the role and implications of space technologies for Pakistan’s unique challenges.

Currently, Dr Mujtaba serves as an Associate Professor at the Department of Space Science, Institute of Space Technology (IST), Islamabad. He is also a Regular Associate of the Earth System Physics Section at the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Italy, and a Research Fellow at the University of Glasgow, Scotland. His major research areas include Climate System Dynamics, Regional Climate Modeling, Climate Variability, Extreme Weather Events, Hydrological Modeling, and Climate Change Impact Assessment on Water Resources.

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Dr Mujtaba Hassan’s work focuses on the interactions between atmospheric processes and hydrological systems under a changing climate, to support climate resilience and sustainable water management in South Asia. (Credits: DSS, IST)

In this gravity-laden backdrop, we sit with Dr Hassan to discover how Pakistan can harness space technologies to build a safer and more resilient future. Here are snippets of the interview.

Hifz: To begin with, can you share a little about your aspirations and journey to leading the Space Science Department?

Dr Hassan: My journey into science has been shaped by curiosity and a deep interest in understanding the natural world. I began with a Bachelor’s degree in Mathematics and Physics, which provided a foundation to observe natural phenomena through both analytical and physical perspectives.

Building on this, I pursued a Master’s degree in Meteorology from COMSATS University Islamabad. It was during this time, particularly through my exposure to the Pakistan Meteorological Department, that I developed a fascination with atmospheric physics, climate science, and the processes that govern weather and climate systems. That experience became the turning point in defining my academic and professional path.

In 2012, I joined the Institute of Space Technology as a Lecturer in Meteorology. Later that same year, I was accepted into the PhD program at Tsinghua University in China, consistently ranked among the top 15 universities worldwide. Driven by a passion to advance climate science, I moved there on study leave to specialize in climate modeling, extreme events, and their hydrological impacts. I studied at a globally renowned institution, which enhanced my research skills and gave me the confidence to contribute to international discussions on climate change and environmental science.

After completing my PhD in 2016, I returned to IST and resumed my role with a renewed vision for research and teaching. In 2022, I was promoted to Associate Professor and appointed as Head of Department in October 2023.

Now I lead a dynamic department that offers undergraduate programs in Space Science and Physics, as well as advanced Master’s programs in Remote Sensing & GIS, GNSS, and Astrophysics. I also teach courses in atmospheric physics, hydrometeorology, climate system dynamics, and climate change adaptation at both undergraduate and postgraduate levels.

For me, this journey has always been about more than just academic milestones; it has been about inspiring students, advancing scientific knowledge, and connecting research with real-world challenges. I aspire to continue expanding the frontiers of space and climate sciences in Pakistan, equipping the next generation of scientists to address pressing issues of climate resilience, environmental sustainability, and space applications.

Hifz: How would you describe the current state of climate variability in Pakistan? Are we witnessing a shift?

Dr Hassan: The answer is yes. Pakistan is currently experiencing significant climatic changes. These developments represent not merely variability but a fundamental shift in temperature, precipitation, and hydrological patterns.

Over the decades, the country has warmed faster than the global average, and the signs are undeniable. Summers are hotter, heatwaves arrive earlier and stay longer, and temperatures in places like Jacobabad now touch the very limits of human survival. At the same time, rainfall is becoming less predictable but far more destructive. The monsoon is no longer a gentle season; it can now unleash devastating cloudbursts in a matter of hours.

The warning signs have been building for over a decade. In 2010, unprecedented monsoon rains submerged nearly one-fifth of the country, displacing millions and leaving a humanitarian crisis in their wake. Twelve years later, in 2022, another catastrophic monsoon hit, this time bringing rainfall so intense that scientists confirmed climate change had made it far more likely. Those floods killed over 1,700 people and caused damage estimated at $40 billion, making them one of the costliest disasters in Pakistan’s history.

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Maps showing the comparison of areas affected by the floods in 2010 and 2022. (Credits: Al Jazeera)

Fast forward to 2025, and the picture is even clearer. In August, cloudbursts and flash floods tore through Buner and Swat in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, claiming more than 300 lives and washing away entire communities. Just weeks earlier, in Gilgit-Baltistan, a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) had burst through mountain valleys, destroying roads, bridges, and villages. These back-to-back disasters underline a new reality: what once felt like once-in-a-generation events are now recurring with alarming frequency.

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Cloudbursts and flash floods tore through Buner and Swat in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Credits: Associated Press of Pakistan)

In Pakistan’s high mountains, another story is unfolding. While glaciers across the Himalayas and Hindu Kush are retreating rapidly, the Karakoram range has behaved differently. Known as the “Karakoram anomaly,” some glaciers have remained stable or even advanced slightly. But this is not a sign of safety; it is a regional exception caused by unique weather patterns.

Scientists warn that even this anomaly is unlikely to last as global temperatures continue to rise. The melting of our “water towers” will profoundly reshape river flows, agriculture, and hydropower in the coming decades.

So yes, Pakistan is already in the midst of a climatic shift. The baseline is hotter, extremes are more dangerous, and mountain systems are under stress. What were once extraordinary events are now becoming disturbingly common. The challenge ahead is clear: to strengthen early warning systems, redesign infrastructure for extreme situations, and prepare communities for a future that will be hotter, wetter, and less predictable.

Hifz: What have been the most alarming findings regarding climate change effects on Pakistan?

Dr Hassan: Perhaps the most unsettling reality is that Pakistan, despite contributing less than 1 percent to global greenhouse gas emissions, remains among the most climate-vulnerable nations in the world. The evidence emerging from scientific studies paints a stark picture.

We are witnessing a rise in temperature extremes, with heatwaves now arriving earlier, lasting longer, and reaching unprecedented intensities. In recent years, parts of Sindh and southern Punjab have recorded some of the world’s highest temperatures, directly impacting human health, agriculture, and energy demand.

Another alarming signal is the tightening link between climate change and water insecurity. With rainfall variability, reduced snow cover, and changing river flows, Pakistan’s agriculture, the backbone of its economy, faces unprecedented challenges. This, combined with rapid urbanization and population growth, raises serious concerns about food security, public health, and internal migration in the decades ahead.

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Urbanization and population growth raise serious concerns about food security, public health, and internal migration (Credits: AP Photo/Zahid Hussain)

In short, science tells us that climate change in Pakistan is not a distant scenario. It is unfolding now; in our heatwaves, in our floods, in our glaciers, and in our water cycle. The most alarming finding is not any single event, but rather the accelerating pace at which these multiple risks are converging.

Hifz: Climate change has become a driver of extreme weather events. How can spatial data and predictive models support policymakers and shape climate-resilient infrastructure and planning?

Dr Hassan: Spatial data and predictive models are not just scientific tools; they are decision-making compasses in an era of climate uncertainty. For Pakistan, where floods, heatwaves, and glacial hazards are intensifying, they provide the evidence base needed to design smarter, climate-resilient infrastructure.

High-resolution satellite imagery and GIS-based mapping allow policymakers to visualize risk in space and time. For instance, floodplain maps can identify where river overflows are most likely, helping ensure that settlements, roads, and power plants are built outside high-risk zones. Similarly, glacial monitoring highlights vulnerable valleys in Gilgit-Baltistan, guiding the placement of protective walls, early-warning sirens, and evacuation routes.

Predictive models add a forward-looking lens. By simulating different climate and hydrological scenarios, these models can estimate how a city like Karachi may respond to rising sea levels or how future monsoon shifts could affect dams and irrigation systems. This foresight enables investments in resilient housing, elevated highways, and adaptive irrigation systems that can withstand tomorrow’s climate realities rather than yesterday’s.

Perhaps most importantly, spatial data makes climate science accessible to decision-makers. When a minister can see, on a map, the overlap between poverty hotspots and flood risk zones, the urgency of climate adaptation becomes tangible. It transforms climate resilience from abstract policy into targeted, evidence-driven action.

Integrating spatial data and predictive modeling into planning is Pakistan’s best chance at moving from crisis response to climate resilience.

Hifz: How can the integration of GIS and space technologies transform disaster management in Pakistan?

Dr Hassan: Pakistan is on the frontline of climate hazards, from erratic monsoons and prolonged droughts to flash floods and GLOFs. In this context, GIS and space technologies offer a transformative edge.

Through satellite-based remote sensing, we can monitor rainfall anomalies, snowmelt, and glacier movements in real time. When layered into GIS platforms, this data produces risk maps that highlight flood-prone valleys, vulnerable settlements, and critical infrastructure.

The impact is threefold:

  • Early warning – Predicting heavy rainfall or GLOF events with higher accuracy and communicating risks directly to communities.
  • Emergency response – Rapid satellite flood-mapping, as seen during the 2022 floods and again in the 2025 Swat and Buner flash floods, helps relief agencies prioritize the hardest-hit areas.
  • Long-term resilience – Identifying climate hotspots to guide safer urban planning, resilient agriculture, and climate-adaptive infrastructure.

In essence, integrating GIS with space-based monitoring shifts disaster management from reactive relief to proactive resilience, a critical step as Pakistan faces intensifying climate extremes.

Hifz: Can you elaborate on the functions and benefits of Automatic Weather Stations, Weather Forecasting Models, and Hydrological Forecasting Models in avoiding tragedies?

Dr Hassan: When we talk about extreme weather events in Pakistan, such as flash floods or cloudbursts, the challenge is not just their intensity but also their suddenness. The difference between a tragedy and a near-miss often comes down to minutes or hours of warning. This is where modern forecasting technologies play a transformative role.

Automatic Weather Stations provide the first layer of defense by feeding us real-time information on rainfall, wind, temperature, and atmospheric pressure. This constant flow of data makes it possible to detect rapid changes in local weather systems, the kind of changes that precede a cloudburst. Once this information is captured, forecasting models step in. By assimilating these observations, numerical weather prediction models simulate the atmosphere and give us an early indication of how a storm cell is likely to evolve, where it may intensify, and how quickly it may strike.

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Automatic Weather Stations are installed in Pakistan, providing real-time information on rainfall, wind, temperature, and atmospheric pressure. (Credits: ProPakistani)

But forecasting the rain alone is not enough. The next question is: what happens once that rain hits the ground? Hydrological models help answer this by simulating how rivers, catchments, and glacial lakes will respond to heavy precipitation. In a mountainous region like northern Pakistan, where the risk of flash floods and GLOF events is high, these models are indispensable. They allow us to anticipate the downstream impact of a cloudburst, which valleys may flood, which communities are at risk, and how much time is available to act.

The integration of these systems creates a chain of foresight, turning raw weather data into actionable warnings. We saw during the 2010 super floods, the 2022 climate-induced flooding, and the 2025 flash floods in Buner and Swat, along with the GLOF event in Gilgit-Baltistan, that the cost of weak forecasting capacity is measured in thousands of lives and billions in damages. Strengthening these tools means moving toward a future where Pakistan is not caught off guard by climate extremes, but rather anticipates them with science-driven preparedness.

Hifz: What role do scientific tools play in early warning systems or disaster risk reduction planning in Pakistan?

Dr Hassan: Scientific tools are the backbone of any effective early warning and disaster risk reduction strategy. In a country like Pakistan, where climate extremes are intensifying, their role is not optional; it is essential.

Today, Automatic Weather Stations, satellite-based observations, Doppler radars, and high-resolution forecasting models enable us to track evolving weather systems in real time. For instance, a storm cell forming over the Arabian Sea can be monitored from its inception, its trajectory simulated, and its potential impact zones mapped hours to days in advance. This transforms our approach from reactive to proactive.

Equally important are hydrological and flood forecasting models, which translate rainfall data into real-world impacts. Instead of merely knowing that it will rain heavily in northern Pakistan, these models tell us how rivers like the Swat or Indus will respond, which communities may be inundated, and how much lead time is available for evacuation.

Space technologies further strengthen this chain. Satellites provide near-instantaneous information on cloud formation, glacial melt, soil moisture, and land use, all of which feed into predictive models. This integration has been critical in monitoring high-mountain hazards such as GLOFs, where minutes of warning can mean the difference between safety and catastrophe.

When these tools are embedded into disaster risk reduction planning, they do more than issue warnings; they guide long-term resilience. Governments can identify vulnerable zones, design flood defenses, plan evacuation routes, and even adjust cropping calendars to align with changing climate patterns.

The reality is that technology does not stop disasters from happening, but it does ensure that when nature strikes, Pakistan is informed, prepared, and better positioned to protect lives and livelihoods.

Hifz: What challenges do you face in translating technical geospatial insights into policy-level action? There are certain challenges, like an ignorant public, unsupportive authorities, and a lack of awareness. How can you cope with such challenges in practical scenarios?

Dr Hassan: Translating complex geospatial and climate insights into meaningful policy or community action is never straightforward. The biggest challenge is the communication gap. Scientific models and maps are full of technical variables, probabilities, and uncertainties, while policymakers and communities need clear, actionable messages.

Telling a minister that rainfall intensity will increase by 20 percent often fails to resonate, but showing that this translates into thousands of homes at flood risk immediately changes the conversation.

Another obstacle is the short-term mindset of both authorities and the public. Policy cycles are often focused on immediate political or economic priorities, while communities may underestimate risks that feel distant or abstract. This was evident in the years before the devastating floods of 2010, 2022, and the more recent 2025 events, where early warnings existed, but limited awareness and preparedness magnified the tragedy.

Overcoming these barriers requires a multi-layered approach. For policymakers, we convert technical findings into economic and social terms, highlighting how proactive planning saves billions in recovery costs.

For the public, we invest in awareness campaigns, school programs, and local-language trainings, helping vulnerable communities understand phenomena like cloudbursts or GLOFs in ways that directly relate to their safety and livelihoods.

Persistence and partnerships are equally crucial. Authorities may be unsupportive at first, but consistent engagement, backed by evidence and supported by NGOs, international donors, and local governments, gradually creates a culture of trust.

When science is framed not as abstract data, but as a tool for protecting lives, homes, and futures, resistance gives way to collaboration. The key lies in humanizing science; turning maps into stories, numbers into impacts, and forecasts into community action. Only then can technical insights truly shape resilience on the ground.

Hifz: How do educational institutions help train people for disaster management, as more than the government, people need to learn it?

Dr Hassan: Educational institutions are at the frontline of building a culture of resilience. Governments may set policies, but it is ultimately people, families, communities, and professionals who must understand risks and respond effectively during disasters.

Universities and schools have the responsibility not only to create knowledge but also to translate it into practical skills that save lives. At the Department of Space Science, IST, we place a strong emphasis on training students in atmospheric and climate sciences, disaster risk modeling, and geospatial applications.

Our students learn to analyze real data, run forecasting models, and develop community-centered solutions. Many of my own graduates, whom I had the privilege to supervise during their final-year projects and theses, are now working with the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and related organizations. Their expertise is directly contributing to early warning systems, climate impact assessments, and risk preparedness strategies at the national level.

Beyond technical training, educational institutions also nurture a mindset of responsibility and awareness. When students understand how a cloudburst can devastate a valley or how mismanaged urban planning worsens flooding, they become advocates for resilience in their own communities. In this way, universities act as both incubators of expertise and multipliers of awareness.

Ultimately, disaster management is not the job of the government alone. It is a shared responsibility, and by equipping young scientists and citizens with knowledge and skills, educational institutions ensure that resilience begins long before the next emergency.

Healthcare Under Pressure: Are we Ready for the Next Big Disaster?

Dr. Syed Hunain Riaz
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Healthcare Under Pressure: Are we Ready for the Next Big Disaster?

As fate would have it, and pretty much like every other country in the world, Pakistan has been having its fair share of disasters since its inception. From insidiously developing epidemics to sweeping floods and devastating earthquakes, we have had it all. And whenever such calamities ensue, human life is affected, resulting in profound misery, which is both short-term and perpetual in consequences.

As a Physician who has worked on the ground in different disaster responses in Punjab, I will reflect upon my experiences in the Govt healthcare sector and shed light on the four cornerstones for disaster management, namely Prevention, Preparedness, Response, and Recovery. In addition, I will suggest changes that could make our responsiveness more efficient.

During my Internal Medicine residency years, there happened to be these catastrophic floods in Pakistan, which affected the Indus River basin. Killing 1700, with 20 million people affected and billions in damages. The effects of floods are immediate and long-lasting as far as human health is concerned.

Immediately, there is a loss of life followed by several outbreaks of infections and a lack of access to healthcare for chronic disease patients. And the very same happened during these floods. I happened to be part of a team that was sent to flood-affected areas in Southern Punjab as a public/NGO partnership.

In addition to destruction due to sweeping waters, there was an appalling state of overall health infrastructure. Makeshift camps were arranged in different public schools where we diagnosed and dispensed medication, which was donated by NGOs/individuals in Lahore. Not only were we seeing all sorts of skin, gastrointestinal, and respiratory diseases, but also nutritional deprivation.

People who could barely have access to any nutritious meal were now having to cope with different ailments. There were patients with chronic diseases on maintenance medication (already irregular), such as Diabetes Mellitus, hypertension, and epilepsy. All these patients had to line up in hot & and humid conditions in the corridor of shabby buildings serving as makeshift medical camps, wanting to inquire whether they had the medication that they needed.

It was a few sultry days of camps at different locations. We were informed that some local medical students were coordinating with local medical relief activities for flood victims through their initiatives. This was truly heartening to observe; we covered different locations in the cities of Kot Addu and Muzaffargarh while our medication stocks lasted.

It was as if we had hardly skimmed the surface of the medical disaster that was enfolding. Infectious diseases of the skin, gastrointestinal, and respiratory tracts were rampant, water-borne diseases, and even snake bites. The local health authorities were unable to address these emergent medical issues, citing multiple problems like medical staff shortage, limited medical supplies, without proper logistic support.

The gravity of the situation was that an already underprivileged, undernourished population was subjected to humanitarian crises and, in a way, abandoned by those concerned.
Health calamity aside, the availability of clean drinking water and hygienic food was a rarity, which brings to light the plight of the unfortunate people.

We managed to spend a couple of nights in the rest house, which was arranged by our ‘well-connected’ Professor and Principal. We returned to Lahore after the whirlwind medical camps. On my way back, I thought about the misery the local people were going through. But mind it, it was something building up for decades. The neglect of appropriate health care, non-availability of clean water and food over the years, served as fertile ground for the current health emergency in the area.

We have seen how devastating nature can be, even in current times, where the well-developed housing societies in major cities were swept away and precious lives were lost. Having said that, this does not exonerate them responsible of their responsibilities. While climate change is a reality and ravaging nature generally thinks little of even the most stringent of preventive measures but it does signal alarm bells as to where we are standing in mitigating the healthcare fallout.

I shall discuss the four milestones I pointed out at the start of the article, considering my experience in the Healthcare sector, and provide suggestions to improve service delivery. Although the scenario mentioned is related to a natural disaster, the suggestions hold validity in cases of standalone disease epidemics as well.

Prevention: The Health System’s Response Beforehand

We have a water problem in our country where every year during the monsoon, we run the risk of being swept away figuratively. Climate change and no new dams to store the excess water, plus deforestation, are key reasons. While talking about those aspects is beyond my expertise as a Physician, what I can reinforce is fortifying the health system’s response beforehand.

Knowing the burden the natural disasters create suddenly for the health system, our preventive efforts are always found wanting. Our low Health budget (1.2% of GDP) speaks volumes in this regard. Limited financial resources limit the hiring of staff, the purchase of essential medication and equipment, and the creation of dedicated surveillance bodies for coordination of preventive efforts beforehand.

While you might allude to the National and Provincial disaster management cells, which are already in place, what I am referring to is dedicated groups of appropriately qualified and experienced professionals who would ensure preparedness of the health sector in every province, especially the high-risk areas. Knowing that there will be water-borne diseases, snake and scorpion bites, and cases of drowning, will it not be feasible to ensure preparedness beforehand, at least at the district level?

Making anti-venom and other essential medications for diseases because of disasters, availability of extra beds in indoor departments of hospitals, all beforehand, can mitigate the morbidity and mortality suffered by hapless human beings.

It is easier said than done, one might argue that you cannot fight against nature, but that
does hold but; every human life is precious and utmost efforts must be made to preserve
life. It starts with adequate financial appropriation. Lawmakers hold the key and should take responsibility for raising their voice in this regard.

Disaster
Mobile Health Clinics for flood-hit Communities in Pakistan. Photo, Disaster Emergency

Solid Preparedness: No Knee-Jerk Reactions!

The Federal and Provincial disaster management cells should take more responsibility in
surveillance and action rather than just knee-jerk reactions in damage control. However, the response of the surveillance and action task forces formed at the Federal and Provincial levels during the COVID-19 epidemic must be acknowledged, where they appropriately gathered data and advised lockdown and further actions accordingly.

The same should be applied to recurring disease outbreaks like Congo fever, Naegleria fowleri (brain-eating ameba), where preempting should be the name of the game. Training and preparedness of healthcare staff for different situations are direly lacking in our
country. Although we might be having highly skilled Consultant Physicians running programs who have expertise in say infectious diseases, we do not have that skill and knowledge seeping into the system at the ground zero.

But it is not as though there has not been any effort made in this regard. As an example, during my residency period, 2011 to be exact, there was a significant dengue outbreak in Punjab. The provincial and district governments carried out massive crackdown efforts to minimize pooling of water on the roads, gardens, tire shops, etc.

The WHO also stepped in and took the initiative, along with leading Govt tertiary care hospitals to train residents regarding the management of Dengue fever, especially Dengue shock syndrome (DSS), which was being mismanaged, and casualties were reported.

I was part of the TRAIN THE TRAINER program and was sent to a peripheral part of the district to make General Physicians aware of the international protocols of management of DSS. However, this can be considered a knee-jerk reaction to the situation spiraling out of control. The authorities are aware of the looming devastating potential of viral diseases like dengue and Congo fever (during and after Eid-ul-Adha).

It would be wise to utilize the services of the highly trained and skilled doctors in teaching
hospitals in the provinces, where every year, with the coordination of the National and Provincial control centers, they are trained concerning expected outbreaks beforehand.

Selecting a group of doctors from different hospitals every year who have essential skills and knowledge to impart to the grassroots health care providers. A rotation policy can be adopted where different groups are selected every year, and local health administrations can ensure compliance, not only on paper but in a true practical spirit.

What I feel most deficient in our medical college curriculum is the preparation of health care providers (HCPs) to face disastrous situations, be it disease epidemics or natural disasters. The direction in which the world’s weather is headed, these floods and quakes are going to be a part and parcel of the future. Plus, antibiotic resistance and emerging lethal strains of viruses will always be a looming threat.

HCPs are given skills for basic and advanced life support throughout their careers; however, the approach to health issues arising during disasters is something that should specifically be taught at the undergraduate level. This should be reinforced during post-grad training, and those who pursue careers in trauma and ER should be further taken up the ladder of competency and skills.

Diseases and health-related situations during floods and earthquakes should especially be focused upon so that every HCP is skilled either to take part in the response or train others if needed. In addition, having a disaster coordination cell in selected district-level hospitals will be useful. Having drills to assess response capability should be conducted on a scheduled basis.

After so many decades of inception, and after so much pain, suffering, and grief at the hands of repeated natural disasters, we still are in our infancy as regards appropriate health care sector responses during disasters.

Disaster
Children and Women are prone to viral diseases in stagnant flood water. Photo, Reuters

Why are we lacking in Disaster Response?

Deployment of logistic services at the right time is of utmost importance. Helicopters,
ambulances, and mobile health units, all of which should be, as previously alluded to, procured in inadequate numbers beforehand, and capabilities assessed during drills.

Hapless people drowning in floods not being rescued due to lack of logistical resources or more avoidable delays, is not an acceptable alibi. Rescue operations should not only be conducted by military or paramilitary personnel, but rather they should be jointly carried out with trained civilians who work under the umbrella of the Federal and Provincial disaster management cells.

Talking in terms of the insidious epidemics we have been fighting against, such as polio, we have been able to curb the disease, but at a significant cost of life of those involved in surveillance programs. Being a developing country, we have put up a tough fight against the scourge of viral diseases and national disasters. However, our most vile enemy is from within, which has tainted our disaster management responses, corruption!

Recovery: Unbelievable Stories of Corruption and Deceit in the International Aid We Received

Every disaster has a start, a peak, and a sloping or abrupt end. In the aftermath of it all comes the recovery phase, which is even more demanding. It requires a determined administration, plenty of resources, and most of all, honesty. Whenever there is a health-related emergency globally, especially in third-world countries, the developed world is quick to offer aid and assistance either directly or through the WHO and related agencies. It has been no different in Pakistan.

Unfortunately, our recovery/control efforts concerning the aid we have received have been plagued by unbelievable stories of corruption and deceit. The Kashmir earthquake (7.6 magnitude) wreaked havoc, killing around 73000 people and displacing millions. The international aid response was heartening and generous, with around 6 billion US dollars pledged.

However, the funds were misused through siphoning them to local contractors, politicians, ghost beneficiaries, fake compensations, and contractor fraud, such as faulty substandard reconstructions. The embezzlements have been alluded to in the 2006-2007 Auditor General reports.

The tales of corruption are not limited to national disaster recovery efforts. The HIV/AIDS
program, especially during its infancy in Pakistan, suffered the same ills. HIV/AIDS is a
concentrated epidemic in Pakistan, which means that it is limited to the high-risk groups, such as IV drug abusers. This does spill over to the general population when the affected people increase. For Pakistan to combat this, numerous international organizations poured in ceaseless funds ( i.e, WHO, Global Fund, UNAIDS).

However, as the tale repeats itself in a loop, millions were embezzled in the provincial and national AIDS control programs. Fake NGO’s, diversion of funds, procurement frauds, you name it, we did it. Although the AIDS control program has eventually been able to build a robust response with checks and balances, obviously, with the international donors now more vigilant and scrutinizing every pill and service provided.

With all that said, it would seem too academic and routine to mention the steps on how to ensure that the healthcare sector’s responsiveness to emergencies is swift and smooth. The following steps should be implemented (may sound too idealistic based on the past)

  • Effective oversight of the National and Provincial disaster management cells
  • Cutting off political intervention in response programs
  • Reduce the hurdles of complex bureaucracy procedures for implementation aspects in
    healthcare programs.
  • Meticulous accountability of organizations receiving aid.
  • Medical curriculum amendments regarding healthcare emergency response.
  • Use of the latest tech, such as drones with thermal and infrared imaging during search and rescue missions and food/ration delivery.

The above may sound too impractical, considering how frequently we unearth corrupt practices in departments where we would least expect considering precious lives involved. But it is what it is, and we must have a resolve and direction. It will take time and dedicated, honest people working in unison to ensure that we are truly ready to face health-related emergencies and disasters in the future.

More from the Author: Love-Hate Relationship between the Gut Microbiota and the Brain

Scientia Pakistan Takes the Lead: Official Media Partner of the Science Journalism Forum 2025!

Scientia Staff
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Scientia Pakistan Takes the Lead: Official Media Partner of the Science Journalism Forum 2025!

We are thrilled to announce that Scientia Pakistan is a Media Partner of this year’s highly anticipated Science Journalism Forum 2025 (SJF25), going hybrid in Dubai. We have been serving as a community partner of the event for three consecutive years, and now, we are super excited to join forces to be a Media partner in SJF25. See you from October 27 to 30 in the UAE or virtually!

What is the Science Journalism Forum?

Think science journalism is just for scientists? Think again!

The Science Journalism Forum 2025 (SJF25), the most diverse event in Science journalism, is opening its doors to a broader audience, creating space for journalists, researchers, policymakers, and the public to come together.

With its mission to promote dialogue and diversity in science storytelling, SJF25 believes that more voices mean stronger, more impactful journalism. Whether you’re a pro or simply passionate about science, there’s a place for you at the table.

This year’s theme is “Science Journalism at a Crossroads – Rethinking Trust, Funding & Innovation”.
The forum will feature sessions in five languages (English, French, Spanish, Arabic, and Portuguese), making it more accessible and inclusive, as always.

🎟️ Secure your spot: https://sciencejf.com/shop/

Since its establishment in 2020, SJF has rapidly evolved into a premier international platform, attracting over 5,000 attendees from 180 countries and featuring contributions from more than 500 experts. As the forum looks ahead to SJF25, it aims to further its mission of inclusivity by allowing participants to engage both in-person and online.

Co-founder Bothina Osama earlier this year remarked, “This transition to a hybrid format directly responds to our community’s request for more flexible ways to connect. We are dedicated to ensuring that every voice in the science journalism community is heard and valued.”

Saad Lotfy, also a Co-Founder of SJF, also highlighted the significance of this development: “By adopting a hybrid model, we are not just leveraging technology; we are breaking down barriers and expanding our reach. This format will enable us to engage a diverse audience, ensuring that all science journalists, regardless of their geographical location or background, can participate fully.”

SJF25 will feature a robust agenda of sessions, workshops, and networking opportunities designed to equip journalists with the tools needed to navigate the rapidly changing media landscape. Attendees can expect a rich exchange of ideas on critical issues facing science journalism today.

Ahead of SJF25, the forum will host SJF24 virtually from October 28 to 31, 2024, under the theme “Transforming Narratives: Reshaping the Landscape of Science Journalism.” This event is anticipated to draw over 500 participants, facilitating discussions in five languages and promoting a truly global dialogue.

As SJF prepares for this exciting next chapter, the organization invites the science journalism community to stay tuned for registration details and further announcements at https://sciencejf.com.

Flooded Again: The Science and Policy Missteps Plaguing Resilience in Swat

Hadia Rashid
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Flooded Again: The Science and Policy Missteps Plaguing Resilience in Swat
In the quiet hush of early morning, Zahir, a shopkeeper in Mingora, Swat, stood at a distance, staring helplessly at his shop. Water rose above the roof. Bilal, a boy who watched the same river swallow his home three years ago, stood nearby. Now, the rains of 2025 have drowned Swat again, and the two are left picking up the pieces of their lives for the third time in fifteen years.

This Cycle of Devastation had begun in 2010, devastating floods claimed almost 2,000 lives across the country, with around 95 deaths in Swat itself. Bridges, fields, and villages disappeared overnight. More than 20 million Pakistanis lost their property or means of livelihood, and children such as Bilal were rescued from rooftops, holding nothing but school books.

In 2022, a century-level monsoon drowned a third of the country under water, hitting 33 million people and causing $30–40billion in damages. In Swat, hotels and bridges crumbled into foaming water as viral videos from Kalam depicted infrastructure constructed on riverbeds swept away.

2025: The trauma returns. In mid-August, heavy rainfall and cloud bursts caused flooding in cities like Mingora. Over 300 people across northern Pakistan have died, most severely affecting Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. 42 homes in Swat alone faced total collapse. 

“It feels like we are trapped in the same nightmare over and over again,” says Zahir, as his child asks whether the school will reopen.

Swat

The Science of Repetition

There are nearly 7,200 glaciers located high above Pakistan, which feed its rivers. Summers are warming, however, and glaciers are melting faster due to increasing temperatures. That meltwater fills the glacial lakes with water, which can suddenly burst through their thin walls.  When this year’s heavy rains started, officials already feared such outburst floods would drown the valleys.

Metrologists explain that when the air gets warmer, it can hold more water vapor. Eventually, all that extra moisture has to come down. If it happens quickly, especially in the mountains, it can cause a cloudburst. That means more than 100 millimeters of rain might fall on a single valley in under an hour.
When heavy rain falls quickly, the ground and rivers can’t keep up. Water races downhill, picking up mud and rocks along the way, which can lead to dangerous flash floods. Climate scientists say that human-caused warming is increasing the intensity of these storms.

This sudden, heavy rain falls so fast that the ground and rivers can’t deal with it. Instead of slowly flowing, the water rushes down violently.  It mixes with mud and rocks, giving rise to devastating flash floods. Climate scientists say human-caused warming of the atmosphere is one reason these cloud bursts are becoming more intense.

The geography in the northern areas adds to the problems. Swat’s valley is steep and narrow, and the soil is thin with little room to soak up water. When rain or glacier meltwater flows into the river, things can quickly go from calm to dangerous. In 2022, rainfall in the Swat basin was about 7 to 8 percent higher than usual. Even this small increase caused landslides and floods that destroyed homes, fields, and bridges.
That’s why the same disaster keeps happening again and again for the families living here.
The Human Hand behind the Recent Devastation

More than 700 hotels, restaurants, and houses have been constructed on or perilously near the banks of the Swat River despite planning regulations. Many are erased in each new disaster. At least 30 illegally constructed hotels were leveled in 2022. In 2025, the same pattern continued. Resorts and guesthouses were left with only their roofs sticking out above the floodwaters, where streets had previously existed.

These structures, approved by local government hungry for tourist money, function like plugged dams, pushing river water upstream and producing instantaneous floods in bazaar hubs.

Pakistan’s MET Department and NDMA issued heavy-rain/GLOF warnings this season, but numerous valley dwellers claim that they were not informed in time to evacuate. Alarms were there. Last-mile communication, trust, and evacuation planning were behind.

The Contrast: Lahore’s Safe City vs Swat’s Unsafe Valley

The Punjab Safe Cities Authority (PSCA) enhances safety in Lahore through a central command center equipped with thousands of CCTV cameras, automatic number plate recognition, and a 15 emergency helpline. This system enables rapid detection and response to crime and emergencies, with calls managed and dispatched in real time.
In Swat, things work differently. There is no ‘Safe Valley’ dashboard to warn every neighborhood, even though satellite and rainfall sensors could make this possible. Rivers follow the laws of physics, so stopping a sudden downpour on a hillside is impossible. What we can do is detect it sooner, send out alerts faster, and help people evacuate. The real challenge is not about science. It comes down to investment, strong institutions, and the political will to treat hydrological risks as seriously as Lahore treats urban security.

Proven Models: What Could Be Done!

Bangladesh stands as a powerful example of what unfolds when communities take center stage. Thanks to AI-powered river forecasts and timely alerts delivered by SMS or dedicated volunteers, people sprang into action. In one study, 93 percent of those who received warnings took steps to protect themselves, and cash support reached families before the worst floods of 2020 struck.
Sensors are most effective when stationed right where danger lurks. Inexpensive river gauges, rain radars, and landslide sensors stream real-time data to open dashboards such as the Google Flood Hub, now spanning much of South Asia. These alert systems trigger sirens and mobilize trained volunteers, who fan out through neighborhoods, knocking on doors to spread the warning.

Rivers require space to breathe. In the Netherlands, the Room for the River scheme redesigned floodplains, relocated dikes, and constructed relief channels. Mountain valleys like Swat can replicate these concepts: setback embankments, sacrificial parks, and debris basins to provide rivers a safe passage while safeguarding communities.

Accountability: The Science–Policy Question

When a city can bring thousands of cameras and one number together to lower crime response times, the science and engineering are there to bring hundreds of gauges, village sirens, and one valley-wide flood room together. Swat lacks not knowledge, but a requirement to enforce no-build zones, pay for real-time hydrology, and practice evacuations annually, before the rain.

As the next monsoon gathers over Swat, will the air fill first with the haunting cry of sirens or the hollow echo of a viral video? The river will rise, relentless as ever, but the fate of its people lies with those who hold the power to shape our future.
“At night, we stay awake, lost in thought- will the next monsoon bring safety, or will history repeat itself?” Zahir asks. For children like Bilal, the memory of swirling floodwaters chasing them from their homes is a lesson no classroom can offer. The tragedies of Swat are not acts of nature alone, nor are they unfamiliar; they are urgent messages the nation still has a chance to answer.

References:

More articles of your interest: Swat Flood Tragedy: A Wake-Up Call on Climate Change, not a Headline to Forget

Teen’s AI Model Cracks NASA’s NEOWISE Toughest Dataset in Microseconds

Bushra Ushaq
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Teen’s AI Model Cracks NASA’s NEOWISE Toughest Dataset in Microseconds

When NASA launched its infrared space telescope NEOWISE (Near-Earth Object Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer), few imagined that a teenager, more than a decade later, would be the one to unlock some of its most elusive secrets. Among the classrooms of Pasadena High School, California, Matteo (Matthew) Paz was known as a stargazer, but not in the poetic sense. Like many budding astronomers, he was fascinated by the night sky.

Through a summer internship, he got a glimpse of the real data used by space scientists and realized just how messy it can be. During his research internship at Caltech’s Infrared Processing and Analysis Center (IPAC), Paz was introduced to the NEOWISE database. Data, so noisy and jumbled that most scientists had set it aside as too difficult to work with. Under the mentorship of astronomer and IPAC senior scientist Davy Kirkpatrick, Paz brought forth his project titled “The VarWISE“, developing a machine-learning model called VARnet to decode NEOWISE. 

NEOWISE

NEOWISE is a space telescope operated by NASA that scans the sky in infrared light, meaning it can see heat, and not just visible stars. It was originally launched as the WISE telescope in 2009, purposed to capture detailed images of the entire sky, revealing everything from nearby asteroids to distant galaxies. After its coolant ran out, the telescope was reactivated in 2013 under the name NEOWISE, with a new focus on spotting Near Earth Objects (NEOs) such as asteroids and comets.

When NEOWISE looked into the sky, it did not just see stars; it saw them over and over again. Over more than ten years, the telescope collected nearly 200 billion snapshots of light sources. These snapshots are called apparitions, and each one is like a single heartbeat reading from a star or galaxy: when it was seen, where it was, and how bright it appeared. 

NEOWISE’s Database: A Locked Treasure 

At first glance, the data from NEOWISE looks like a goldmine: billions of observations of stars, galaxies, and asteroids, all glowing in infrared light.  However, the telescope had not followed a neat, predictable pattern. It would catch a star a dozen times in one night and not see it again for months. Some measurements were sharp and clear; others were blurred by cosmic noise or background interference. The data turned out to be a vast sea of numbers, scattered with no labels or clear connections.

For many scientists, analyzing this database is like straining to hear a whisper in a stadium packed with screaming fans. Traditionally, a method called phase folding is used. This method identifies repeating patterns by overlapping sections of a light curve (a star’s brightness over time), but phase folding is computationally intensive and struggles with uneven data.

Matteo Paz’s Key to NEOWISE 

Faced with this mountain of tangled data, Paz questioned whether we could do better, using AI built for messy, real-world data? His approach was to ‘clean up’ the database, understand it, and then train AI to recognize meaningful patterns. As each light source was scattered across the database in pieces. Paz first needed to find out which observations belonged to the same star. 

This is where a spatial clustering algorithm called DBSCAN (Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise) came into use. DBSCAN groups points (apparitions) close together in sky coordinates and discards the rest as noise. This allows the algorithm to recover full light curves for individual stars or galaxies. The clustered data for each star was then reformatted into a consistent structure. This ensured Paz’s AI model, VARnet, would receive reliable, standardized input for every star it analyzed.

Building VARnet, An AI Stargazer

With the cleaned-up dataset in hand, Paz built a machine learning model called VARnet. Unlike traditional models that rely on smooth, complete data, VARnet was designed from the ground up to thrive in NEOWISE’s noisy, sparse environment. VARnet uses two key signal-processing techniques, Wavelet Clarification and Custom Fourier Transform.

Wavelet Clarification breaks a signal into pieces at different scales, letting the model zoom in on both long-term trends and brief fluctuations. It is like having multiple lenses for examining a star’s behaviour. Normally, a Fourier Transform identifies repeating cycles in data. Paz modified this method to work better with uneven and gappy NEOWISE light curves, allowing VARnet to pick out rhythmic patterns that traditional tools miss. Together, these techniques help VARnet understand both periodic stars (like pulsators) and unpredictable events (like supernovae), even when the light curves are noisy or incomplete.

NEOWISE
VARnet understands both periodic stars and unpredictable events. Credit: Society for Science

Training VARnet

To train any machine learning model, you need examples with known answers. But NEOWISE’s archive lacked labelled light curves. So Paz built a simulator. Using physical models of how different stars behave, he generated synthetic light curves of four categories. Null – Stars that appear constant in brightness. Transients – Sudden, short-lived bursts of light from explosive events like supernovae. Pulsators – Stars that rhythmically expand and contract. Transits – Dimming caused by objects like planets passing in front of a star.

This simulated data became VARnet’s training ground, teaching it what each type of star ‘looks like’ in infrared. Once trained, VARnet could classify a star in just 53 microseconds (a thousand times faster than the blink of an eye) when run on a GPU. 

From Simulation to Discovery 

VARnet was tested on a 25-square-degree region of the sky, a small patch in the grand scheme of the universe. From that one area alone, fascinating results were obtained in under five minutes. Along with confidently identifying a known system, V1403 Ori, it spotted a new eclipsing binary (a system where two stars take turns eclipsing each other as they orbit). It also detected cosmic events in distant galaxies, such as a potential supernova in LEDA 358365 and a feeding supermassive blackhole in LEDA 340305.

After proving VARnet’s accuracy on a small patch of sky, Paz scaled up. Using the full NEOWISE dataset, VARnet analyzed over 450 million light sources across the infrared sky. From this massive trove, the model identified around 1.5 million variable sources. Out of those, more than 540,000 were discoveries never catalogued before in any existing database of variable stars.

The Future of VARnet 

Matteo hopes to expand VARnet to analyze the entire NEOWISE archive, not just small chunks. That would mean scanning data from every point in the sky, possibly uncovering millions of new variable stars, mysterious objects, and galactic events. He is also exploring how to adapt VARnet for other space missions, like the James Webb Space Telescope or ESA’s Euclid mission, which collect enormous volumes of time-based data. 

Matteo Paz was named the national winner of the prestigious Regeneron Science Talent Search program. Credit: Society for Science

Based on his groundbreaking project, Paz submitted a paper to The Astronomical Journal as the sole author. His paper was peer-reviewed and published, an astronomical achievement for a high school student. In March 2025, he was named the national winner of the prestigious Regeneron Science Talent Search program, winning 250,000 USD, beating out thousands of other talented high school researchers.

References

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