The TransHelp – a Pakistan-based Startup, become the first Pakistani startup to be selected among the top 10 finalists across 31 countries for its innovative solutions to counter HIV/AIDS endemic organized by Gilead Sciences United States, in association with Pen State University and Bemyapp.
The TransHelp is an innovative platform that aims at democratizing affordable and quality health and legal aid for underserved communities, particularly transgender persons by combining creative art, advocacy, and digital technologies (AI/GPS/GIS). It is already been noted by several national and international organizations such as it was finalists for Asia-Pacific Social Innovation Award 2020 by the Ministry of Economic Affairs, Taiwan—the People’s Republic of China in 2020.
On the occasion, Founder and Chief Knowledge Officer Mr. Mohsin Khan said that “Considering Pakistan’s perpetual rise in HIV infections and Transphobic attack, TransHelp is established to provide affordable and quality health and legal support to the underserved communities of Transgenders, PWIDs, PLWHA by combining creative art, tech & advocacy. Our aim is to educate these vulnerable communities, increase testing rates, promote prevention and treatment (of HIV/AIDS, Sexually transmitted diseases), and empower them to fight against Stigma, Transphobia, Violence, and Gender discrimination.
“We were also able to educate thousands of people on COVID19, through open-source animations, radio, and TV programs and planning to start a series of Comics to educate and empower youth. Being top 10 among 31 countries itself a pride for Pakistan and a testimonial of its vibrant startup ecosystem and human capital. We hope that government and other organizations will come forward to accelerate our common goals. We also are ready to work with other youth and trans-based organizations” He added further.
Being one of the most prominent geologists in Pakistan, Dr. Qasim Jan is a recognized international scientist and has received many awards, including TI, SI, HI, and honorary DSc degrees from King’s College London and the University of Leicester. He served as the Vice-Chancellor of the University of Peshawar, Quaid-i-Azam University, and Sarhad University. He has worked at several reputed national and international institutions and his impactful research focused on geology, mineralogy, geochemistry, and tectonics. He is currently serving as Distinguished National Professor (Emeritus) at the National Center of Excellence in Geology, University of Peshawar.
For our special edition on Natural Disasters, we caught up with Dr. Qasim to discuss climate change and how the past and present is responsible for it, disaster management, and the state of affairs in Pakistan, among other things.
Being one of the most prominent geologists in Pakistan, Dr. Qasim Jan is a recognized international scientist and has received many awards, including TI, SI, HI, and honorary DSc degrees from King’s College London and the University of Leicester.
Q. Geology is mainly the study of non-human-induced changes taking place throughout earth’s history. How could it better contribute to study climate changes?
Simply put, Geology is the study of the Earth, and climate changes are closely linked to the Earth. All the way from causes of climate change to consequences and mitigation require a sound knowledge of earth sciences. Many universities have now combined departments/ institutes for Earth and Environmental Sciences. The origin and survival of life are closely linked to water, and the study of water resources is an important branch of Earth Sciences.
So, the study of the environment cannot be isolated from the study of the earth. Environments are directly related to earth and so are geological sciences.
Q. A pre-industrial revolution record shows a significant increase in global temperatures. What do you think could be the best alternatives for coal, fossils, and other carbon-inducing agents?
The present Global Warming has been taking place for some 80-100 years, but particularly so over the past 50 years, with a temperature rise of 0.8 to 1.0oC. The projected increase is scary. A temperature rise of 2oC would be very harsh and 3oC would be a global disaster. There are a number of mitigation measures that need to be practiced. But, perhaps, the use of fossil fuels needs to be replaced very quickly by clean energy (such as solar, hydro, wind, hot springs, nuclear, etc.)
Forestry and plantation on the earth’s surface would also be helpful in reducing the harsh impact. There are some artificial practices like the management of solar radiation, but they are still under study. The utmost need at the moment is to produce an immediate substitute for hydrocarbons/ fossil fuels which are responsible for the greenhouse gases which are now commonly considered as the main reason for global warming. The current CO2 content at 419 ppm is double that of the pre-industrial time.
Q. How have natural causes affected climate change in the past ?
There have been long to short duration natural changes in the climatic conditions in the past which have resulted in the disappearance of species, the most popular of which are the dinosaurs. The dinosaurs disappeared at the end of the Cretaceous geological period, approximately 65 million years ago. Some speculate that there might have been metabolic changes, but the more popular theory argues that it happened because of climate change which was related to the impact of a 10 km-across asteroid in the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico and /or extensive Deccan (India) volcanism.
Incidentally, the Deccan volcanism was one of the largest volcanic eruptions stretching up to southern Pakistan. The extensive volcanic outpouring in a span of two to four million years must have been accompanied by huge quantities of gases and dust which would have blanketed the earth for such a long time that some of the species had to die. A large asteroid impact could also have produced a large amount of dust, leading to the greenhouse effect.
In North Atlantic, about 55 million years ago, there was another huge volcanism that resulted in 100,000 years of a global warming period. Magma rose quickly to the surface and heated organic material, releasing methane and carbon dioxide which is resulted in blanketing and global warming.
Apart from the impact of asteroids/meteorites and volcanism, other possible natural causes of climate change include solar flares, cosmic radiation, changes in earth rotational orbit, low-level clouds, floods, storms, the decline in carbon sink, and wildfires.
Satellite view of the Deccan Traps. Being one of the largest volcanic features on Earth, they consist of multiple layers of solidified flood basalt that cover an area of c. 500,000 km2.
Q. What about the linkage between variations in climate and human activities?
I do believe that present-day warming, and consequential climate change, are anthropogenic. As a matter of fact, there is a good correlation between temperature rise and carbon dioxide increase in the atmosphere. The large quantity of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (such as methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases) in the atmosphere owe their origin to burning of the fossil fuels in industry, transport, agriculture, and buildings. Carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, takes flabbergasting one hundred years for its removal, and it has increased significantly over the past century to 419 ppm of the atmosphere (ca. in terms of sheer weight amounts to 40 billion tons). This is the highest concentration in the last four million years and twice the amount of pre-industrial time.
But climate change should not be viewed as an entirely warming phenomenon. Other human activities engaged in changing the landscape and cutting of forests, wastage and pollution of water and air, disrupting the ecosystem and habitat also pose serious threats to plant and animal life.
Q. The earth has been experiencing overwhelming natural disasters for the past few decades. How could modern technologies like GIS (Geographic Information Systems) and remote sensing help better understand natural disasters?
It is not correct to say that the natural disasters have been taking place over the last few decades. Major natural disasters have been occurring throughout human history, indeed geological history.
It is possible there has been an increase in the frequency of natural disasters over the past 50 years, but it can also be that because of faded memory and poor record-keeping we might be giving more importance to recent disasters which are fresh in the memory.
To illustrate, there were big floods in China in 1931 and 1887, and obviously, during that time we didn’t have the problem of present-day global warming. Those approximately killed 1-4 million and 1-2 million people, respectively. Going back further, China Shaanxi Earthquake in 1556 killed 0.83 million people and the Tangshan earthquake in 1976 killed 300,000 to 700,000 people.
The 2004 Sumatra tsunami in the Indian Ocean killed 200,000 people, but there was also the Italian Tsunami of 1908 that killed 123,000 people. As you can see, disasters have always been there, but whether their frequency increased in recent years is to be statistically confirmed.
I certainly agree that the use of GIS, Remote sensing, Early Warning Systems, and other technological tools and advances would be much helpful in the prediction and mitigation of natural disasters. In general, there is a fear that global warming and climate change are going to result in unpredictable weather, especially in superficial phenomena. To fight that, we need global collaboration because some of these events might be beyond the capacity of just one nation.
Q. Pakistan has been a frequent victim of earthquakes and other calamities. Why are we always underprepared in disaster management, when countries in similar geological states like Japan, are able to rebound so quickly?
It is a little too much to compare ourselves with Japan. Japan has a very old culture of science and technology and a very high level of education. Their financial resources and capabilities far exceed those of developing countries.
I agree that Pakistan is a seismically active zone and because of that natural disasters will keep on occurring. The 2005 Kashmir earthquake was very sudden. Even if we were prepared, we couldn’t have stopped the death of people from the jolt. And because earthquakes are not predictable, therefore you cannot evacuate towns in fear of a calamity that may not happen.
The 2005 earthquake in Pakistan was very sudden, killing around 100,000 people in the country and wounding many more. Credit: IRNA
Similarly, if you look at the 2010 flood, Pakistan couldn’t have done much regarding that because it was too sudden (at least in the northern part of the country) and too big. Within a short span of time, there was this huge quantity of rainwater thrown down in Swat and adjacent areas of Hazara and Dir which ultimately aggravated into big floods in the South.
I personally think that since the earthquake in Kashmir, Pakistan’s level of disaster preparedness and mitigation certainly has improved. The government has established an agency for the purpose of national disaster management and with the passage of time, it will continue improving.
Q. Even though Pakistan has big deposits of natural resources, why haven’t we been able to do efficient resource management.
There is a common misconception in Pakistan that we are blessed with an abundance of resources. We have to get rid of this notion. Undoubtedly, Pakistan is not poor in terms of natural resources, but to say that it has a lot, is very rich is an exaggerated statement. But having said that, the country has large quantities of building materials and marble; some industrial minerals, evaporites (rock salt and gypsum), a couple of big copper deposits, and semi-precious stones. Apart from copper, we don’t have large deposits of metallic minerals, but we do have some reasonable deposits of industrial minerals.
The biggest natural resource of Pakistan is water, but with the passage of time, Pakistan has become a water strained country. We have one of the most widespread irrigation systems in the world, but we are wasting too much water because of obsolete irrigation methods and extreme water pollution.
We have not been able to benefit because our policies have been unrealistic, and our implementation has been even worse. One example is the Reko Diq project. The unnecessary entanglements and wrongdoings cost Pakistan pay billions of dollars. This shows the flaws in our policies. All international agreements need to be reached on the basis of good scientific information and sound legal advice.
Q. From Kalabagh to Diamer Basha, dam construction has always been a subject of much controversy in Pakistan. Can you share why there is so much debate when we are in dire need of controlling our resources?
The only national controversy has been the Kalabagh dam. The construction of the Kalabagh dam was affected by 1) interprovincial differences, and 2) obsession of a particular lobby in its support. The proposal was opposed by the smaller provinces, despite perhaps insufficient scientific evidence; only fear. If it is technically a safe site despite active tectonics and a layer of salt under the dam site, then there is no reason why the Kalabagh dam project should not go ahead, firmly guaranteeing, of course, a fair supply of water to the provinces of KP, Balochistan, and particularly Sindh. In a country with the inconsistent implementation of decisions, this will not be an easy task! But we must also keep in mind that there are other sites upstream on the Indus and other rivers for water storage and power generation and these need to be quickly pursued.
As far as the Diamer Basha dam is concerned, there isn’t a serious seismological danger. About 40 to 50 kilometers from the site of the dam there is an active fault that runs along the western margin of Nanga Parbat. Because of mass movement (sliding) along the fault, the Indus River was dammed near Rakhiot (now Raikot) in the 1850s, resulting in a big lake. Later it burst and the flood wiped out a whole Sikh regiment stationed at Attock near Indus-Kabul confluence. I am sure the engineers and builders of the Basha dam would take precautionary measures to avoid disaster in case of large landslide in the area.
I conclude that we need to construct water storages, but not at the cost of affecting national unity. But equally important, we are wasting a lot of water and polluting the remaining, which needs even bigger attention.
A view of the DIamer-Basha Dam site at Chilas. Credit: INP
Q. There has been an establishment of Pak-China Earth sciences academic cooperation. What are your thoughts on that project?
Academic cooperation between Pakistan and China has been going on for quite some time and joint research is always good. The establishment of an earth sciences center in Islamabad will be impactful for three reasons. Firstly, it will improve our quality of education and research. Secondly, international researchers will have the opportunity to work in Pakistan with our scientists. This will be good for the promotion of science and global understanding through science diplomacy. Thirdly, the Center can play an important in the sustainability of CPEC. In the long run, a major goal of the CPEC is trade on land route between China and Pakistan.
Our land route, i.e., Karakoram Highway, passes through the tallest and rugged mountain ranges in the world (Himalaya, Karakoram, Hindu Kush, Kunlun) and is frequently blocked by mass movements, landslides and glacier surges, and glacial lake outbursts. It is essential to understand this region better through careful and detailed studies to ensure a smooth flow of trade along the KKH. As a matter of fact, this was also one of the primary reasons to establish this center.
Q. What contribution, do you think, your personal work has provided to the field?
Personally, I work for the love of discovering nature. As a human being, I believe I have a responsibility to understand the functioning of nature. The work we have done provides basic information about our hills and mountains. We have described rocks and minerals which are of interest to the economy and science of Pakistan. These include building materials (i.e., granites in Kohistan, Nagar Parkar, and Balochistan), chromites, gemstones, seismology, climate change, and natural hazards.
My research has not been primarily focused on minerals of economic importance, but it provided basic data for future activities on mineral exploration, engineering geology, etc. More importantly, our studies have contributed significantly to, and globally showcased, the crust building processes and geodynamics of northern Pakistan, Chagai-Raskoh arc, and Nagar Parkar. We (A.H. Kazmi & M. Q. Jan) also published a well-read seminal book on the “Geology and Tectonics of Pakistan” in 1997.
Q. How would you say the field of Geology/Earth Sciences has evolved with the advent of new technology over the years? And what is the status of geological research in Pakistan?
Geological sciences have indeed seen major advancements since the 1960s. First and foremost is the unifying theory of plate tectonics because of which we have started looking at the sectors of the earth from totally different and new perspectives. The earth sciences have become more multi-disciplinary and seen big advances in instrumentation. Thus, geology, in combination with space sciences and geophysics, have added much to surface mapping, subsurface structures, economic geology and petroleum exploration.
Pakistan also has progressed substantially in the earth sciences. At the time of independence, there were only a handful of geologists and few areas had been studied geologically. Today, there are over 20 departments and centers in the universities, and many organizations and companies which are involved in geological mapping, mineral exploration and exploitation, and oil and gas exploration. In this regard, the contributions of the Geological Survey of Pakistan (GSP) are highly admirable despite meager human, financial, and infrastructure resources. Some important earth sciences related finds include building material and decorative stones, industrial minerals, two big copper deposits, and oil and gas discoveries.
Geological research in Pakistan needs enhancement through induction of a larger number of well-qualified scientists and technical staff, well-equipped, properly maintained, and functional laboratories with sophisticated equipment, strengthening of the GSP, adequate support for fieldwork, and improvement of syllabi in the universities.
Q. What would be your advice to individuals interested in this field?
Success is fundamentally related to hard work, capacity building, a correct attitude, and working in close cooperation with colleagues. Ours is a field-dependent science and geologists should not lose focus on fieldwork. The world has become a global village and success requires passing through cut throat completion. Knowledge of developments in S&T and multi-national, multi-disciplinary, and multi-institutional collaboration is helpful for creativity and development of knowledge, sciences.
Scientists have discovered a gargantuan galactic wind emitted by a supermassive black hole some 13.1 billion years ago, the oldest one observed to date. This is a critical discovery as it can help shed ‘light’ on the development of galaxies in particular and for our modern universe in general.
Scientists from the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan (NAOJ) first identified a hundred galaxies having supermassive black holes in their center using NAOJs Subaru Telescope, a very powerful instrument with a wide observation capacity. They then used Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA), which has more sensitivity, to study the gigantic galactic winds flowing outwards from the supermassive black holes.
Scientists believe that these physical interactions between black holes and galaxies have played a critical role in the development of our modern universe.
It is already known that the center of galaxies has supermassive black holes, billions of times huge than our sun. Scientists believe that these galactic winds, going outward from these supermassive black holes, have profound effects due to physical interactions and telltale the effects of supermassive black holes on the evolution of galaxies, something scientists term as coevolution ̵ evolution of black holes and galaxies together.
Scientists believe that these physical interactions between black holes and galaxies have played a critical role in the development of our modern universe. Supermassive black holes swallow up huge amounts of surrounding matter and stellar material. As the matter begins to swallow up into the black holes it starts swirling at high speeds due to the gravitational pulls of these gigantic monsters and starts to emit intense energy which can push the surrounding matter outwards. This is how the galactic winds are created.
Takuma Izumi, the lead author of the research paper and a researcher at the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan (NAOJ), says, “The question is when galactic winds came into existence in the universe? This is an important question because it is related to an important problem in astronomy: How did galaxies and supermassive black holes coevolve?”
The latest research was presented by the research group from NAOJ in the Astrophysical Journal Takuma Izumi et al. titled: “Subaru High-z Exploration of Low-Luminosity Quasars (SHELLQs). XIII. Large-scale Feedback and Star Formation in a Low-Luminosity Quasar at z = 7.07,”.
Through many hearts are breaking And many tears are shed So many houses broken Too many people dead God summoned his angels Sent them to the disaster zone To deliver their tiny perfect wings So they didn’t travel alone. ~Sally
Over the past decade, around three hundred natural disasters have occurred yearly worldwide, affecting millions and caused damages of billions. The displacement/ migration is evident after a disaster strikes an area, leaves millions homeless, and forces to move in temporary crowded shelters with little to no access to drinking water or food in a few days to rescue operation. Such living conditions often result in the spread of infectious diseases like Dengue, Tetanus, Malaria, and others. These natural disasters have also caused a substantial economic burden, from 2000 to 2009, they brought about approx. 891 billion dollars damage worldwide that include houses and mega infrastructure.
How many of us blame ourselves for this steady rise in natural disasters? None can ignore the fact that many of these calamities were man-made; they strike due to environmental degradation caused by global warming. Now slowly but at least not too late, mankind realizes that its greed has brought destruction to the earth’s natural systems.
When the desire for fast profits and growth beats the vision of sustainability, nature retaliates in the form of disaster. Our activities after the industrial revolution play a vital role in the fast pace of natural disasters worldwide. By supporting unsustainable developments, we caused deforestation that leads to more floods and land sliding. The sprawling cities with zero to no urban planning and increasing fossil fuel consumption impacted our environment and made changes in weather patterns.
With this edition, we aim to challenge media-driven stereotypes of disasters. More often than not, a disaster reported in Pakistan has a very short life; after a few photo sessions and press conferences by the officials, our media started playing political or showbiz beats.
Much of the rainforests are being clear-cut to make ways for cattle ranches. This led to deforestation and global warming, destroyed animal habitats, and also disrupted the water cycle. Without trees to absorb rainwater, floods and soil erosion is evident in many parts of the world where forests were mercilessly killed. Besides causing massive flooding, deforestation led to severe and prolonged periods of drought because forests are an essential part of the water cycle, bringing groundwater to the atmosphere, fewer trees means fewer rains, increasing the risk of drought.
Without trees to absorb rainwater, floods and soil erosion is evident in many parts of the world where forests were mercilessly killed.
The global warming caused by the industrial revolution has a profound impact on global weather patterns. The increase in atmospheric temperature resulted in speedy glaciers melting and bringing changes to oceans’ temperature. The coastal areas are under threat of high-intensity cyclones and storms from July to September. The constant rate of increase in ocean temperature will lead to more intense storms.
When a hurricane sweeps away entire houses, a flood seeps in through every corner of our lives, or a wildfire turns a dense forest into ashes, it leaves us speechless and miserable. But if we want to upgrade our reaction against natural disasters, we need to talk about them.
Pakistan geologically overlaps both with the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates; two-thirds of Pakistan’s total area lies in fault zones that can cause tremors anytime. Pakistan is among the highly vulnerable countries due to climate change; massive floods, prolonged drought, cyclones, land sliding, glaciers melting, and earthquakes, we are destined to live with disasters.
Scientia Pakistan is launching its exclusive edition on Natural disasters to spread awareness about why natural disasters are evident and what we need to learn to stop their growing pace. We reached out to the acclaimed geologist of Pakistan, Dr. Qasim Jan, and Dr. Nayyer Alam Zaigham, to discover the geological changes in the region and how man-made activities are causing harm to the environment. For a more detailed understanding, there are stories of the most devastating natural disasters that hit different parts of the world during the last two decades. Moreover, we covered the role of remote sensing and GIS techniques for an effective disaster management policy and post-disaster rescue operation.
With this edition, we aim to challenge media-driven stereotypes of disasters. More often than not, a disaster reported in Pakistan has a very short life; after a few photo sessions and press conferences by the officials, our media starts playing political or showbiz beats. The media is ignorant of the fact that a minor calamity could cause far-reaching and long-lasting effects. The situation needs to be examined both by the governments and local communities. We want to enable the layperson to effectively play his role in a disastrous situation such as we faced in the Oct 2005 earthquake, 2010, and 2020’s massive flooding.
WildFire is not a new thing for Australia. The Australian landscape evolved because of fire. The survival of many plant species is depending on fire. There is a variety of species that adapted and even getting benefit from the fire in Australia. The Australian landscape was designed by fire in a way to prevent wildfire and also to provide resources. We know that the root cause of any natural disaster is somehow linked with global warming and overall climate change. Global warming is causing a slight rise in temperature, which leads to a decrease in rainfall in some areas of Australia. This phenomenon leads to an increase in the frequency, extent, and intensity of the wildfire in the last decades. These disturbed fire patterns increased their harmful effect on biodiversity.
According to Geoscience Australia, the leading natural reason behind these wildfires is lightning coupled with human and other biological activities. According to CSIRO, wildfire mostly breaks due to scorching weather and vegetation. But it is required to figure out the major cause of their ignition, whether lightning or accidental fire? When these factors combine with speedy winds, it results in a wildfire.
NSW RFS reported that lightning is the reason for the Gospels’ mountain fire which burnt 512000 hectares. The media reported Kangaroo island fire also started with lightning. It is concluded that in 2019-20 fires, most of the fires begin with lightning. The fires in Tasmania in December 2019 are because of deliberately lit fires results in 21000 to 35000 hectares burned.
Studies proposed that by 2050, the risk of wildfire can increase up to 25%. It is a need of an hour to understand their changing pattern, cause, and impact on biodiversity for better management of the disaster they caused.
According to CSIRO, wildfire mostly breaks due to scorching weather and vegetation.
Australia has faced extensive and continuous bushfires from June 2019 to Feb 2020. These wildfires are unexpectedly prolonged, and that’s why named Black Summer or season from hell. The outbreaks of 2019-20 adversely affected the NSW and Sydney. Overall, 2019 in Australia 2019 was recorded as driest and scorching. The FFDI (Forest Fire Danger Index), which calculates the intensity of danger caused by the wildfire in Australia, recorded the spring season in 2019 wildfire as the highest rate.
In 2019, about 15000 fires were reported in different areas, which collectively damage 19 million hectares of Australian land. This area is larger than the total burnt area of Amazon and California in recent fire events; an annual wildfire is widespread in Australia, especially the savannahs of northern tropical, last year damage the vegetation. An increase in temperature and extended drought conditions have worsened the condition at the start of November 2019.
In January 2020, heavy rainfall decreased the fires in some areas but unable to extinguish the fires completely. Drought, hotter temperatures combine with high winds increased the fires to a dangerous level again at the start of February 2020. This is followed by heavy rainfall in mid of the Feb 2020 results in the complete extinguishment of fires in NSE, but victoria was still facing the bushfire. All the fires completely stopped in March after nine months of prolonged bushfire season.
In 2019-20, wildfires affected millions of people living in these areas with 33 deaths and thousands of homes burned. The smoke from these prolonged fires causes air pollution in major cities, and even the smoke reaches over New Zealand. Hazardous air pollution causes about 400 deaths and hundreds of people hospitalized because of asthma, cardiovascular and respiratory issues. These fires released about 900 million tonnes of CO2 emissions. According to NASA, these fires produced a considerable amount of smoke, taking one complete circle of the Globe. In current times Sydney and Canberra are listed among the top 10 most polluted cities.
According to WWF estimation, about 3 billion native vertebrates are present in the 2019-20 bushfire areas, which include mammals, reptiles, birds, and frogs. These extended bushfires also affected endangered species, wildlife, ecological communities, and heritage Areas. Threatened species lost their required habitat because of these fires. The heritage sites like Gondwana InDuring 2019-20, many historical places like Greater Blue Mountain, and Old Great North Road were destroyed due to the wildfires. Many modeling and studies are carried out to explain the actual damage caused by 2019-20 fires on fauna and flora. However, much data is still an estimation from past fire events and requires detailed analysis and expert opinions.
Australia was able to come out of this emergency with the help of many Philanthropic and Governmental support. CDP (Center of Disaster Philanthropy) supports it with their global recovery funds; this helps donors meet the challenges presented by the global crises. These donations then transferred to various organizations working in the country to overcome the current emergency, just like the Australian Red Cross Society awarded $336,000 to help the human life affected by bushfires. It also includes three years of bushfire recovery programs.
FRRR (Foundation of Rural and Regional Renewal) awarded $500,000 to help at the community level and invest in community projects. This helps in the recovery of rural and remote areas of the country affected by bushfires.
WWF was also awarded $1.19 million for long-term recovery projects. This is actually for wildlife and restoration of the environment and natural habitat. The federal government of Australia announced in Jan 2020 the formation of the National Bushfire Recovery Agency. The government also initiates $A2 billion for recovery and helping the farmers, families, and businesses affected by bushfires.
The ongoing demand is the requirement of resources and funds for rebuilding communities and structure which resist the bushfires.
Living in a fast-paced digital world equipped with artificial intelligence and machine learning comes with many pros and cons. However, it is undeniable that technology does offer a solution to almost every problem, to the extent that it now can fight nature.
The leading cause of destructions in the world for the past years is natural disasters, including storms, heatwaves, floods, wildfires, and earthquakes. According to a rough estimate, natural disasters caused losses of $131.7 billion in 2018, affecting the lives of millions around the world. With the empirical advancement in technology over the years, it has now become more accessible for the agencies and rescue teams to fast track the locations and conduct rescue operations worldwide, enabling them to play an influential role in disaster relief aid.
Robots, including drones, have an admirable potency to make the rescue easy as the technology can go where human can’t; can access damage in real-time and deliver services accordingly in less time and at a lower price.
Let us look at the innovative pieces of technology that effectively bring digital solutions in the humanitarian sector, impacting humanitarian relief and counteracting the natural disasters that have been costing us lives for years.
Land Slides and Earthquakes
Recent technology has developed at the Cornell University, capable of forecasting the plate tectonic motion of lower intensity lasts for hours or days, called “slow-slip earthquakes.”
SERVAL PROJECT is another mighty development in response to the Haiti earthquake. The technology has been in use since 2010. It allows mobiles to communicate with each other even in a no-network coverage area using the TERA (Trilogy Emergency Relief Application) designed SMS text system.
NASA Finder, a suitcase-size device, was developed in response to the 2015 Nepal earthquake. This device can detect human heartbeats under 20 ft of solid concrete and 30 ft of rubble.
The earthquake early-warning system is also in the process of development by the U.S. Geological survey. This system will be a groundbreaking technology as it uses a network of high-quality ground motion sensors.
Storms
Data statistics show that 90% of all-natural disasters are weather-related. To reduce the massive loss of life, technology has to offer something extraordinary other than the old radar technology used in World War II to better anticipate weather forecasting.
Data statistics show that 90% of all-natural disasters are weather-related.
Kevin Petty, director of Science & Forecast Operations from The Weather Company, a subsidiary of IBM, said in an interview.
“One of the key things that we are always looking to do is to enhance prediction of weather globally to reduce those impacts that it has on the population, allowing populations to be more resilient in the face of high impact weather.”
Promising algorithms will be available soon, capable of fast and accurate hand in-depth analysis of data coming from multiple domains, such as geophysics, from the atmosphere, ocean, or the biosphere.
Another mystic model has been developed at the National Centre for Atmosphere Research for wildfire prediction. The system simulates how weather drives fires and how fires impact climate. Scientists can regularly update forecasts by restarting the model every 12 hours with the latest observed data.
Floods
Massive flooding caused by natural causes, such as increased rainfall or storms, has been reported in Nepal, Myanmar, China, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, forcing millions of residents out of their homes.
But technology has equipped us with such forecasting models that can better analyze the data and automatically alert the authorities beforehand. A flood forecasting model was implemented by Google in September 2019 in the Indian region of Patna. Google has collaborated with several on-ground companies to provide real-time data.
An inundation model has been built by the U.S tech giant built can forecast flash flooding by assessing the water behavior through prediction of water level rise in a particular area. A highly detailed computer model uses radar and advanced streamflow computer simulations to provide specific guidance for decision-makers during the crucial 1 to 12- Hour window.
Epidemics
AI-enabled forecasting models can be used to identify hot spots of an emerging disease and its spread rate and trend. Health care reports are correlated with environmental data such as soil components, a rise in temperature or humidity – all factors that can help the disease spread rapidly. The path of a specific insect that transmits disease can also be tracked using satellite imagery.
Role of Social Media in Disaster Communications
Online Applications for Disaster Relief Aid
Micromappers, launched in 2013, is a world-renounced application for its effective contribution to the 2015 Nepal earthquake. Micromappers processed over 60,000 images and tweets during the 2015 Nepal earthquake. This application works by creating a map from social media relief updates and forwarding it to the aid agencies that get real-time updates from affected areas. Micromappers assist the concerned organizations in planning effectively before stepping into the disaster zone.
Google people finder is another innovative open source technology developed in response to the Haiti earthquake in 2010. This application is available in over 40 languages, and it allows users to search and post for the status of people affected by a disaster.
Red Cross emergency app is a handy application with the credit of saving several lives in the United States. This application is a very reliable source for giving weather updates, preparedness information, and safety tips.
Pakistan Disaster Management Strategy
Pakistan has had its fair share of disasters in the past 14 years in earthquakes, floods, and storms. And just like how its people stood firm in the face of every adversity that came in their way, they showed incredible resilience to cope with the natural disasters. But the management of catastrophe is highly dependent on the efficacy of governance, and for this purpose, Pakistan modeled its proactive disaster management by enacting the National Disaster Management Act 2010 under the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR).
NDMA has developed a framework under the National Disaster Risk Management fund (NDRMF) that operates at the national level. It works as a coordinating, implementing, and monitoring body, which provides guidelines for disaster risk management at federal, provincial, and district levels.
Despite the financial and resources constraint, the administration has done explicitly well to manage such situations with a minimal loss of life. But the system still has some loopholes making it faulty on the ground level. To make the institution functioning impeccably, along with its up-gradation by integrating new technology, the government should develop disaster management bodies from the central government right down to the community level.
This remedy will help the government to translate its policies and effectively execute programs at the ground level. And will ensure the deliverance and access of essential services to the citizens.
December 2019 marked the beginning of the global COVID-19 pandemic, with its initial cases being diagnosed in Wuhan, China. The virus outbreak began as pneumonia due to an unidentified cause and had soon spread to different countries in Asia, Europe, and the US. On the 30th of January 2020, the COVID-19 outbreak was declared as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) by the World Health Organisation (WHO). On 11th March 2020, WHO announced the coronavirus outbreak as a pandemic.1
COVID-19 is an infectious disease believed to be caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2)2 belonging to the family of Coronaviruses known to infect mammals, including humans and bats3,4. SARS-CoV-2 is an enveloped positive-sense single-stranded RNA virus known to enter the host cell through its binding to ACE2 receptors. ACE2 receptors are found on the cell membranes of certain human tissues, including those in the respiratory and GI tracts.5,6
Progress of the COVID-19 pandemic in India
The first COVID-19 case in India was reported on 30th January 2020 in the state of Karela; a student who was studying at the Wuhan University had traveled back to India and had tested positive for the virus.7 The virus then began to spread in the towns of Thrissur, Alappuzha, and Kasargod, all in Kerala, from students traveling back to India from Wuhan. By May 2020, India had the largest number of confirmed Coronavirus cases in Asia. To the relief, 10th June onwards, the number of recovered cases in India started exceeding the active cases. By September, infection rates started to drop.10 Mid-September onwards; the infection rates started to increase again, peaking to more than 90,000 confirmed cases daily. The infection rates dropped again to only 15,000 daily cases by January 2021.11
India commenced its vaccination program on the 16th of January 2021 and administered 3-4 million doses a day by April.12,13 India had authorized the British Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccine, the Indian BBV152 (Covaxin) vaccine, and the Russian Sputnik V vaccine for emergency use. As of 15th May 2021, around 40,298,750 people have been fully vaccinated, with a total of 181,201,743 doses administered.14,15 Parallel with the nationwide vaccination program, India saw the second and much larger wave of COVID-19 beginning in March 2021. Subsequently, there occurred nationwide shortages of vaccines, hospital beds, oxygen cylinders, and medicines.16 By late April, India had become the first country in the world to report over 400,000 new cases in one day.17,18 As per the data from May 2021, India holds the second-highest number of confirmed cases globally (after the USA), with 25.4 million reported COVID-19 cases and 283,248 deaths.12 Despite the nationwide mass vaccination program, why has India been terribly hit by the second wave of COVID-19?
Fig.1 Presents a graphical depiction of the progress of COVID-19 pandemic in India.10-18
The double mutant (Indian) COVID-19 variant and the second Coronavirus wave in India
Multiple factors have been at play in causing a sudden spike in the number of COVID-19 cases during the second Coronavirus wave in India. One of the most suspected reason has been the emerging of the new Coronavirus variant lineage B1.617.2, first identified in Maharashtra, India, during October 2020.19,20 The former has been named as the double mutant variant by the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Consortium on Genomics (INSACOG), a group of 10 national laboratories under India’s health ministry which carried out genomic sequencing on samples collected from western Maharashtra state. A double mutation has been seen in the Coronavirus spike protein, which is believed to potentially increase the virus’s infectivity and its ability to escape the human immune system.
It is worth mentioning that the virus spike protein (shown in figure.2) is the part of the virus through which it penetrates inside the human cells.21 These virus mutations are suspected to result in re-infections in people already recovered from COVID-19, although with milder symptoms compared to primary infection. Hence, this would allow the virus to penetrate the herd immunity and reach the most vulnerable people at higher risk of developing severe disease.21 Despite the reports of the virus’s increased infectivity, there is still a lack of enough evidence to conclude the double mutant variant of COVID-19 as the main cause of India’s deadly coronavirus situation. Hence, a significant number of further studies generating more data are needed to confirm these speculations.
Fig.2 Shows the Coronavirus and its labelled components.22
Apart from the virus’s mutated variant, several other factors have significantly contributed to a sudden spike in India’s number of COVID-19 cases. Lack of “preparedness” for dealing with the second wave of the virus in dismantling the temporary hospital faculties once the cases began to decline, poor implementation of health and safety precautions during weddings, festivals such as the Holi celebrated on the 29th of March. In April, the Haridwar Kumbh Mela plus poor adherence to COVID-19 standard operating procedures (SOPs) during sports events like the Indian Premier League (IPL) and during the ongoing local elections inside several states have majorly contributed towards the grim numbers23-30. Reports are linking the Haridwar Kumbh Mela to at least 1,700 positive COVID-19 cases in a period of 4 days only, between 10th-14th of April.31,32
The political rallies being held for local elections have also been massively backlashed for being responsible for the sudden rise in COVID-19 cases inside the country.33-35 To make things worse, vaccination supply issues also started to occur due to the temporary suspension of Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine export by the UK to help meet their domestic demands. Moreover, vaccine hesitancy and lack of knowledge among poor and rural communities (accounting for about 68.4% of India’s total population) had also burdened the country’s vaccination program, aiding the spread of the deadly virus. 36-38 Hence, the combined effect of the mentioned factors allowed the deadly second wave of COVID-19 to prevail all over India, taking many lives.
Conclusion
India accounts for being the second largest in Asia concerning its population.39 About 68.4% of India’s population accounts for the rural population, whereas the urban population stands for only 31.1% of India’s total population. Currently, India is recording the highest number of new COVID-19 cases per day, reaching 400,000 new cases every 24 hours. Various factors, including lack of awareness and knowledge regarding the virus itself among rural communities plus the countrywide poor implementation of safety and health precautions, have massively contributed to these grim statistics. Insufficient knowledge and hesitance towards the vaccination program shown by the rural and poor communities have also been a major constraint in overcoming the deadly pandemic.
Moreover, the emergence of the double mutant Indian variant of the coronavirus is also believed to be potentially at play behind the peaking COVID-19 cases due to its increased infectivity and ability to escape the neutralizing antibodies naturally produced human immune system. It is noteworthy that the double mutant coronavirus variant found in India plus the primary Coronavirus itself are novel viruses. There remains a lack of sufficient knowledge to conclude these new virus strains being the primary cause of this pandemic not ending. It is important to note that there have been no reports of the Indian variant of COVID-19 being more lethal or increasing the disease mortality rate. Hence, strict implementation of COVID-19 SOPs and health and safety precautions, plus successfully running countrywide vaccination programs, remain the most effective approach towards fighting the global pandemic.
References:
Progress of COVID-19 Epidemic in Pakistan – Khadijah Abid, Yashfika Abdul Bari, Maryam Younas, Sehar Tahir Javaid, Abira Imran, 2020 [Internet]. SAGE Journals. 2021 [cited 23 May 2021]. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1010539520927259
Branswell H (9 November 2015). “SARS-like virus in bats shows potential to infect humans, study finds”. Stat News. Retrieved 20 February 2020.
Wong AC, Li X, Lau SK, Woo PC (February 2019). “Global Epidemiology of Bat Coronaviruses”. Viruses. 11 (2): 174. doi:10.3390/v11020174. PMC 6409556. PMID 30791586. Most notably, horseshoe bats were found to be the reservoir of SARS-like CoVs, while palm civet cats are considered to be the intermediate host for SARS-CoVs [43,44,45].
Ge XY, Li JL, Yang XL, Chmura AA, Zhu G, Epstein JH, et al. (November 2013). “Isolation and characterization of a bat SARS-like coronavirus that uses the ACE2 receptor”. Nature. 503 (7477): 535–8. Bibcode:2013Natur.503..535G. doi:10.1038/nature12711. PMC 5389864. PMID 24172901.
Hamming I, Timens W, Bulthuis ML, Lely AT, Navis G, van Goor H (June 2004). “Tissue distribution of ACE2 protein, the functional receptor for SARS coronavirus. The first step in understanding SARS pathogenesis”. The Journal of Pathology. 203 (2): 631–7. doi:10.1002/path.1570. PMID 15141377.
Pakistan has one of the most disaster-prone countries in South Asia. It has to suffer approx—18 billion dollars in damage and losses from natural disasters. Nearly 3 million people are affected by disasters each year in Pakistan (World Bank June 3, 2017). The annual impact is estimated between 1.2 billion to 1.8 billion dollars, equivalent to a 0.5 to 0.8% yearly GDP of Pakistan. Another disaster like the 2010 flood could cause losses in access of 15 billion dollars.
This flood is considered one of the devastating natural disasters in Pakistan’s history that led to a humanitarian crisis more than the Oct 2005 devastating earthquake in Kashmir and KPK. It affected more than 20 million people, destroyed massive infrastructure, including homes, crops, and left millions vulnerable to malnutrition and water-borne diseases.
With one-fifth of Pakistan affected, rescuers and humanitarian aid workers struggle to reach victims stranded by rising water and extensive damage to the roads and bridges in all four provinces. The majority of people, who were severely impacted by this flood, were poor farmers; an estimated 4.5 million acres of crops were destroyed, along with an estimated 1.2 million head of livestock. The floodwater had swept more than ten thousand schools, 500 clinics, and hospitals in rural areas.
Every year natural disasters claim around 90,000 lives and affect more than 150 million worldwide. Among these, floods pose the most intense and devastating threats to lives and livelihoods.
A growing body of research supported by the UN’s Office of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRD) has found a close linkage between climate change and natural disaster risks. The global climate risk index by German-Watch analyses global extreme weather events and their socio-economic impacts. The 2019 CRI ranked Pakistan as the most affected country in terms of extreme weather events.
According to Mr. Shiraz Ahsan, a Ph.D. candidate and visiting faculty at IGIS NUST, “Pakistan’s geographical and geopolitical location makes it a country confronted by varying natural disasters. Especially in the last two decades, Pakistan has faced some of the most devastating events that placed the country in an almost continuous emergency state.”
“The prolonged drought of Baluchistan that ended in 2000, Kashmir earthquake in 2005, and monsoon floods in 2007, 2010, and 2020, are among the most significant crisis of that period. These disasters highlighted the importance of an effective disaster management policy and an early warning system that could alert the machinery as well as the public a few days or a few hours ago; this is how we can minimize the losses in terms of lives and infrastructure.”
Every year natural disasters claim around 90,000 lives and affect more than 150 million worldwide. Among these, floods pose the most intense and devastating threats to lives and livelihoods.
In Pakistan, more often than not, during a humanitarian crisis caused by a natural disaster, the capacities of the government, either federal or provincial, local institutions and communities, proved to be inadequate to effectively respond to the unprecedented situations. We lack the most is the ground assessment and early warning system based on up-to-date information through satellite imaging and GIS software that can enable us to respond appropriately to the first wave of decision making. Shiraz added.
In Pakistan, timely information from the field wouldn’t be sufficient to report frequently during an evolving disaster such as riverine floods and earthquakes. The first set of data provided to the management helps them allocate available resources in the right direction and minimize in-efficiencies, which is conventionally based on mere, sometimes no accurate, information.
A couple of years ago, Shiraz Ahsan, with his co-researchers, worked on geospatial techniques for managing a disaster crisis response caused by the poor disaster management policy countrywide.
Remote sensing is now an essential tool for disaster management worldwide. It is the science of acquiring information about the earth using remote instruments such as satellites that provided accurate, frequent, and up-to-date data over the large areas affected by a particular disaster. This remotely sensed data can be used very efficiently in developing an effective strategy for post-disaster relief operations.
We lack the most is the ground assessment and early warning system based on up-to-date information through satellite imaging and GIS software that can enable us to respond appropriately to the first wave of decision making. ~Shiraz Ahsan (IGIS NUST)
The Geographic Information System (GIS) coupled with Global Positioning System (GPS) is handy in search and rescue operations in disaster-impacted areas in the disaster relief phase. In floods and earthquakes, when roads and bridges are damaged and helicopters are the only option to reach the people in far-flung areas, GPS could help tracking the people stranded in floodwater or under damaged houses/ buildings and need rescue within few hours. Where Pakistan lacks the most in its disaster management policy is planning; we never have enough geographical information of the disaster-affected areas.
GIS can play a vital role in early relief and rescue operation efforts. GIS software grouped with satellite imagery help to identify disaster-prone areas. In the recent case of a high-intensity storm cyclone, Tauktae, the disaster management department of Sind, had zero to no preparation for the situation. Thank God it had not put on much trouble in Karachi and other coastal areas, but another cyclone is likely to hit the shores by the first week of June.
The increasing seawater temperature can possibly cause more than three cyclones of high intensity during the ongoing monsoon season. The disaster management department needs to analyze the situation through satellite on a daily basis and should work on a practical strategy/ rescue operation in case of any deadly situation like Karachi had faced in August 2020.
Illustration of Remote Sensing
In pre-disaster preparation, the government needs to focus on early warning system and evacuation of residents on short notice that we mainly observe in western countries. In floods, the process should execute on a daily basis to monitor water recession and suggest which areas are safe for the return of displaced people. This monitoring step is of great importance for high-intensity earthquakes when an area is still under threat of aftershocks and buildings have cracked.
An early warning system plays a pivotal role in risk assessment related to the natural hazard; however, the ratio of its effectiveness depends on the available warning time and the time necessary for implementing the required prevention action. The latter strongly depends on the associated processes and activities of people and systems. An early warning system on the regional level, adequately equipped with remote sensing and GIS software, monitors signals and indicators of both natural and man-made threats. These information issues warning of emerging events like cyclones, torrential rains, typhoons, floods, droughts, or other immediate variations in the environment of a particular area. The warning helps both the governments and communities in anticipating and reducing the impact of a humanitarian crisis.
In Pakistan, the governments never prepare for any hazardous situation; every year in the monsoon season, the drainage system gets blocked after a few heavy showers in big cities like Karachi and Lahore, and local/ municipal corporations start accusing each other of negligence. Contrary, our people are not well aware of disasters and have insufficient knowledge of how to rescue themselves and the people in the surrounding in a particular disaster.
Besides working on a practical strategy and a working disaster management policy, we need to educate the masses for such emergency situations. Youngsters can play a vital role in pre-disaster-rescue-operation if they are well trained, facilitate, and adequately equipped. The proper training and planning can help minimize the loss of lives and colossal infrastructure when a disaster strikes.
A training program for disaster risk reduction should have activities that aim to reduce vulnerabilities, including physical, social, economic, and environmental factors that increase susceptibility and lessens the impact of the disaster. Youngsters update about the man-made activities that cause climate change and give rise to natural disasters. More than variation in the earth’s system related to the ancients environmental cycles, our activities are potentially impacting the lives and livelihood of communities.
Moreover, Governments and NGOs should work to develop and enhance the capacity of individuals, communities, and institutions to reduce natural disaster risk and build up resilience.
Natural disasters are the inevitable shifts in our planet Earth. There is no way to stop them, but there are ways to minimize the damage caused by them. Floods, hurricanes, tsunami, earthquakes are majorly caused by changes in Earth’s crust. One such modern-day natural (plus nuclear) disaster took place near the Japan Pacific Coast in the reactors of Fukushima Daiichi on March 11, 2011. It was caused by an earthquake followed by a tsunami named Tōhoku.
A nuclear reactor consists of different reactors containing fuel rods, generators cooling water tanks, etc. Due to any damage, if one of these reactors stops working, others come to the rescue. They are known as standby reactors. In the case of the Fukushima nuclear disaster, reactors 1,2 & 3 were working, and the other (4,5 & 6) were in maintenance mode.
With the first surge of the earthquake, reactors 1, 2 & 3 instantly shut down, and their temperature kept on rising as it contained the steam. The other reactors couldn’t save the day and added to the misery. The earthquake caused a complete power outage, and the underground generators were then responsible for filling in for the power deficit. Although the condensation plants were working on dropping the temperature levels in the reactors, they weren’t much help, considering the unstable condition inside them.
The Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant after the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami. Reactor 1 to 4 from right to left.
While the workers on site were trying their best to recover from the damage of the earthquake, little did they know that a tsunami was coming their way. Accompanying the general terror of the tsunami was the fact that the water seepage due to it shut down the generators flushing their fuel tanks along with it. This caused even more unrest at the people on-site and even stirred tremor in the government rankings. As evident from the condition of the reactor 1 and 3, the speculations of an explosion seemed quite real. These speculations led to a 2 -mile evacuation notice effective immediately from the nuclear site. The situation at the nuclear plant got nerve reckoning as the older workers filled in for the younger ones, so they might save themselves from a disaster they could right in the eye.
It might not be an understatement to say that the last tsunami wave marked the end of the Fukushima reactor. With the temperature levels getting out of control in reactor 1 and 3, the water was completely dried out, leaving the control rods exposed to dry air. This resulted in even higher temperatures that melted the control rods, making a pool of highly radioactive metal at the bottom of both the reactors. The on-site workers were trying to bring down the temperature by flushing the reactors with seas water, but the huge depositions of hydrogen gas in them resulted in the first explosion, which was reactor 1, followed by a second and third explosion, for which the reactor 3 was responsible. Reactor 2, which was meant to be unstable now that the rest of the two fellow reactors had blown up, followed suit. The government officials gave orders to clear the perimeter to a 12.4-mile radius.
There were substantial casualties, which can never be forgotten. But the worst from the nuclear disaster is what is yet to be followed. The radioactive atmosphere has led to a complete quarantine zone around the area, the soil rendering any vegetation was radioactive, and the water too was contaminated. Although precautions were taken to minimize the spread of the radiations, the future shall tell how useful the precautions prove themselves to be. Still, to this date, the area is highly radioactive and out of bounds for normal use.
Natural catastrophes occur and cause damage on a massive scale, but when this is linked with another disaster that is usually man-made, then the situation turns into uncontrollable havoc.
Bright yellow and finger-sized locusts are grasshopper species capable of assembling in large destructive swarms and feeding on agriculture. These creatures currently prevailing in Africa, particularly East Africa, are a new disaster on its way. According to the International Rescue Committee (IRC), the desert locust swarms of East Africa are the worst outbreak witnessed in the past 70 years. Not to forget, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has wrapped the world around its fingers, with thousands losing lives every day. Loss of economy, business, security, quality of life, and loved ones is topped by the threat of these upcoming locusts swarms that can starve people of East Africa to death.
Why are these tiny creatures a threat to an entire region?
Their rapid reproduction and an exponential increase in numbers in a small frame of time make them a threat. The food and agricultural organization (FAO) states that each desert locust can consume approximately two grams of fresh food each day. Almost a 1000-meter swarm of desert locusts can eat the same quantity of food each day as a total of 35000 people will consume. Though it may not sound like an alarming scenario practically, these figures have drastic impacts on the agricultural crop that gets wasted due to these locust attacks.
Several locusts exist as listed below. However, among all these, desert locusts are the most minacious lot due to their rapid reproduction, the ability to migrate over long distances, and the capability of crop exhaustion and devastation.
Desert locust
Red locust
Australian plague locust
Rocky Mountain locust
Patanga Succinct
American bird grasshopper
Why is Africa prone to locust attack?
In Africa, almost 60% population residing below the poverty line; lack of infrastructure, overpopulation, impaired facilities, inadequate access to information and tools have worsened the situation. The land area covered by Africa is mostly utilized for farming purposes, but with such a pronounced threat of locusts’ attack lingering above their heads, the inhabitants of Eastern Africa are in a consequential state.
Though locust swarms exist all across the globe, Africa is the most vulnerable to these attacks in recent years due to three basic reasons.
Desert locusts are a minacious lot due to their rapid reproduction
Firstly, favorable weather is a crucial factor for attracting these locust swarms. Experts in Somalia and eastern Ethiopia have received higher than average rainfall during the rainy season (2020) that lasted for three months: September, October, and November. Plenty of rainfall indicates a fruitful agricultural output. An increase in crop production is the ideal breeding ground for locusts. The lush green vegetation covers a significant part of the land which means a greater number of breeding grounds for locusts for expanding their population and multiplying the members of their locust’s army. A report issued by the FAO (Food and agricultural organization) and the World Meteorological Organization claimed that the desert locusts could multiply massively. Within a year, there can be 160,000 times their initial population.
Rick Overson of Arizona State University’s Global Locust Initiative explained the behavioral changes in locusts when favorable weather conditions persist. “Instead of repelling one another, they become attracted to one another — and if those conditions persist in the environment, they start to march together in coordinated formations across the landscape, which is what we’re seeing in eastern Africa.”
Secondly, Cyclone Gati further fueled the growth and reproduction of locusts. One of the strongest tropical cyclones that hit the arid northern Somalia, Cyclone Gati resulted in an unexpected heavy rainfall in the region. This heavy rainfall turned the dry topography of northern Somalia into a reproducing ground for locust. It saturated the soil and made it the best fit for locust to lay their eggs and reproduce. Though the sudden propagation of vegetation could have been beneficial for locals provided that it was not being preyed upon by the intractable locust swarms.
Favorable temperature is another crucial factor that influences the life cycle of these creatures. In order for these locust eggs to hatch, a particular range of temperature in required. Flooding prior to the dry winters keep the soil moisture intact through the winters. This gives more time for the females to lay eggs hence increasing the population density of locust in the area.
Impact of Locust attack on Africa
The upcoming and previous locust attacks on Africa have posed grave concerns to the government and local population. According to World Bank, locust-related losses, including crop devastation, livestock, and others, sum up to $8.5 billion for the East Africa region and Yemen. In Ethiopia, early analysis depicts that desert locusts have caused the destruction of nearly 800 square miles of cropland, over 5,000 square miles of pasturelands, and a loss of more than 350,000 metric tons of cereal. This can result in approximately one million people seeking food aid and relief. In Africa, almost 24 million people are victims of food insecurity, and their locust swarm is predicted to lead to almost 5 million people facing starvation. Observing the severity of the issue, United Nations has warned that the people of Africa might reach a stage where they have to decide between migration or starvation.
Locust-related losses, including crop devastation, livestock, and others, sum up to $8.5 billion for the East Africa region and Yemen. (Credit: AP)
Locust swarms coupled with climatic shifts and a deteriorating economy have further added pressure on the inhabitants of Africa. Masses are being displaced from their homes to safer areas. However, people traveling in search of food and water for their survival are in danger of being the victims of trafficking or, at worst, physical violence. This case scenario gets more serious when teenage girls and women search for food and water. When the available resources fall short, and there are more mouths to feed, it generates social pressure and disrupts family setups. With a larger population and limited in-hand resources, the competition amongst people stirs upon the fair division and utilization of the slim available resources. These situations can potentially worsen the existing crises and lead to greater damage.
Is there a way out?
The real question is that is there any possible way the severity of the locust situation in Africa can be controlled. There are proposed suggestions that may succor the pressure of locust attacks. Firstly, environmentally friendly biopesticides are required. This will reduce the number of invading locusts and will harm the environment to the least considering the arid and dry topography to Africa. Viewing the current situation in Africa, microbial biopesticides for instance fungus-based “Green Muscle” can prove to be a solution. Such biopesticides can be imported or aided from producing countries such as Netherlands or Japan.
Secondly, there is a natural way to diminish these creatures with respect to a particular region. Introduction of natural predators who prey on these dessert locusts can be environmentally friendly and fulfill the objective as well. Natural predators such as wasps, birds, and reptiles may prove effective at keeping mini swarms away.
Thirdly, eliminating the root cause is one of the best techniques to prevent the multiplication of swarms. Early preventative measures and effective management strategies to avoid greater losses can play a huge role in reducing their numbers and halt further such instances. Tracking the pattern movement of these adult locusts, especially the deadly desert locusts, is another useful strategy to prevent large-scale damages. In collaboration with United Nations, NASA is striving to arrest the expansion of locust swarms by intercepting the insects’ relationship with Earth’s climate. Employing space satellites to track the behavior of these insects, NASA scientists can learn how environmental changes influence locust populations, and the obtained information can help prevent future locust-derived disasters from occurring.
Africa is in dire need of support from all across the globe in these ongoing crises. Thousands of lives are at stake from the threat of hunger and starvation along with the COVID-19 pandemic. Neighboring countries should provide resources, medical supplies, food and water supplies, shelter, safety, and aid to enable Africa’s people to cope with such extreme conditions. It is time to keep aside political differences and work together as one body fighting to save humanity.
