Living in a desert is not easy; it is not always like living in big cities where you can find your favorite foods at your doorstep or at the nearest high street. Lack of facilities and basic necessities of life like health, education, unemployment, scorching weather, and loneliness make the life of its dwellers miserable. The statistics show a slight rise in the death toll of children between 2 to 10 years owing to several complications like low birth-weight, pneumonia, respiratory distress syndrome (RDS), malnutrition, and diarrhea.
Thar-Parkar is the largest district of Sindh and has Mitthi as its district headquarter. It covers an area of 19,638 square km (7,582 sq mi) with a population of 1.64 million people. It enlists in the 18th largest desert of the world and is considered to be the only fertile one. Enriched with coal, it has the world seventh largest reserve in the world.
However, the limited periods of rainfall due to widespread climate change in Pakistan and mainly in Sindh caused an acute shortage of water for the inhabitants. Once the areas that provided scenic fertile views in the Mon-Soon season, now hardly receive rain in a season.
Limited periods of rainfall due to widespread climate change in Pakistan and mainly in Sindh caused an acute shortage of water for the inhabitants
Here, the rainy season often kick starts in early July and ends in September. In the past, Tharparker and adjacent deserted areas received sufficient rains, so the ponds get enough water for the dwellers for another three to four months when the areas usually received moderate rainfall in the winter. Here the primary water resources are wells with a ground-water-level of 200 feet deep that went even deeper in the last decade due to the dearth of rains.
The situation in Tharparker worsened when the Sindh government failed to provide water in sufficient amounts to meet the local residents’ daily requirements. Agriculture gets nearly impracticable when people striving for water to meet the basic necessities of life.
DUA Foundation Agriculture farm
The past governments of Pakistan wouldn’t pay attention to the area unless the Thar coal mine project was inaugurated in May 2008. Once the Sindh Engro Coal Mining Company (SECMC) and Thar Power Company Ltd. (THARCO) started generating electricity, the area caught the attention and became the center of attention to the national and international mainstream media outlets. In a short period, several non-governmental organizations shifted their focus to uplift the lifestyle of the residents of Thar. Sindh Engro Coal Mining Company (SECMC) is also working on multiple projects as their corporate responsibility, and a primary project among these is the Bio-saline water irrigation project.
The company planted an area of 10 acres (4.04 hectares) and with 120 Ber (wild-Berries) trees on each acre. The effort was part of the bio-saline agribusiness by utilizing underground water of the third aquifer pumped from a profundity of roughly 200 meters.
DUA Foundation has installed the Water Project (Submersible pump on 500 feet deep boring with water storage tank) at Village Chaho, Uc Laplo, Tehsil Dahli, District Tharparkar. Credits: DUA Foundation
The planted trees are watering up to 3500 ppm TDS beneath specialized back given by Pakistan Horticulture Inquire about Committee (PARC), and 120 trees were planted per acre so far. These plants have started yielding within one year, and each tree has produced an average of 5 to 7 kilograms of fruits. The 120 trees on a land section could provide around 35,000 to 40,000 PKr within the, to begin with, harvest.
Dua Foundation is an NGO with small-man-power, struggling to regain the fertility of Thar Desert, once it was known for. Dua Agro Farm was a constructive idea to turn Thar green, which has now become a reality. With optimism and good faith, these farms are now showing their spring. So far, 45 agro farms have been completed. These successful experiences are creating new sources of employment for Thar residents.
These Agro farms are bored for irrigation and various types of pumps. In case of lack of electricity, solar power cells are also installed, and at the same time, storage tanks are constructed for storing water. The inhabitants of adjoining villages also have access to daily necessities and clean drinking water due to these efforts.
Installation of water pump has been very useful for the local residents. Credits: DUA Foundation
Dua Agro farm has also been set up in Kaloi Tehsil of Tharparkar, in which plants like mustard, Tara Meera, Tomato, Onion, Berry, and Lucerne are being cultivated. Meanwhile, the farm management started some research work, and a few Lotus plants have also planted experimentally in a pond.
In various areas of Tharparkar, Jalebi, Pomegranate, Wheat, Palm, Olive, Lotus, Tomato, Onion, Dragon Fruit, Spaghetti, Cumin Mustard, Tara Meera, Lawson, Lemon, Fig, Mulberry, Guava, Falsa, grains, and other vegetables are planted. Following the successful experimental cultivation of more seasonal fruits and vegetables, a few mega farming projects have been launched.
Farmers ready to harvest golden wheat from DUA agro farm. Credits: DUA Foudation
These farms are not only meeting the food needs but also providing economic autonomy to the villagers. Thus, the Dua Foundation promotes small-scale cultivation of fruits, vegetables, and grains in the Tharparkar area. In addition to preparing the fields, training is also provided to the residents for their maintenance and good yields.
With the help of philanthropists, these agro farms are prepared and handed over to the local communities. The existing wild berries in Tharparkar have also been grafted with good quality berries, and now the branches of these trees look bent under the weight of good quality big tasty, and nutritious berries. Under Dua Foundation, 200 trees of Kahu (Wild Olive) in Dhirkot District Bagh have also been grafted with required quality foreign olives. This will improve the economic situation of the locals.
Pertinent to mention that the foundation had launched a campaign of grafting olives in the country, and after their successful advocacy, Prime Minister Imran Khan also showed interest in it and ordered the authorities to support farmers in it.
The issue of climate change has emerged very strongly during the last two decades on a global scale, given its projected implications on the environment of vulnerable states. Steadily rising temperature and its impacts on the cryosphere and rainfall are evident in many regions worldwide. There are indications that Pakistan has had its share of the significant climatic variations that are known to have taken place in northwest India in the past. The dominant component of the climate variations was spatial shifts in the rainfall patterns, associated with fluctuations in the general circulation of the region’s atmosphere. Changes in rainfall patterns directly affect water, agriculture, and disaster management sectors.
Keeping the dominant causes of water shortage under consideration, our Chief Editor Saadeqa Khan has reached out to Mr. Zubair Ahmed Siddiqui for our special “Water Day Edition”. Mr. Siddiqui is a Senior Meteorologist and Climatologist who has been working in various sections of the Pakistan Meteorological Department, including the Climate Data Processing Center of PMD, IMG-Training Center of PMD, and Director of Regional Center for Gilgit-Baltistan, for around twenty years. At the moment, Mr. Siddiqui is serving as the Director of the PDM’s Regional Center for Sindh.
Below are excerpts of this conversation.
Saadeqa: Let us know about your life and career and work experience?
Mr. Siddiqui: I completed my M.Sc. (Physics) in 1992 and then PGD in Computer Science from the University of Karachi in 1993. Later I did M.S./M.Phil. in Meteorology from Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, China. I joined Pakistan Meteorological Department in 1999 as a “Meteorologist” after passing through FPSC exams. Since then, I have been working at various sections of PMD, including the Climate Data Processing Center of PMD, IMG – the Training Center of PMD, Senior Aviation Met Forecaster at Karachi Airport and Director of Regional Center for Gilgit-Baltistan and now at present as Director of Regional Center for Sindh. Some of my research papers have been published in National and International peer-reviewed Scientific Journals. I have been a fellow at Japan Met Agency Tokyo and have also represented Pakistan at various Conferences and Symposiums in several other countries.
Mr. Zubair Ahmad Siddiqui at the UN office
Saadeqa: How long have you been serving in PMD’s Regional Center for Sind? Let us know about particular projects you would have loved to work on?
Mr. Siddiqui: PMD is a Federal Government Department and I have been the Director of Regional Center for Sindh for the last One & a Half years. My main responsibilities include the Administration and Control of the Network of 18 Met Observing Stations, 06 Aviation Met Offices, and 04 Agromet Centers in the province of Sindh while issuing Forecasts, Alerts, and early Warnings related to Daily Weather, Seasonal Weather, Monsoon Rain Forecasts, etc. Moreover, extreme weather like Heat Wave and Cold Wave Forecasts, Urban Floods and Flash Floods Forecasts and other Extreme and Unusual Weather Events, etc., are also a part of my services.
Saadeqa: What are the Met Office predictions for the coming Mon Soon season in Karachi and Sind?
Mr. Siddiqui: Monsoon Season onsets/starts in Pakistan from 1 Jul every year. Hence PMD will issue its monsoon forecast in the last week of May for entire Pakistan, including Sindh and Karachi.
With Trainees from SAARC countries, at IMG Karachi (2011)
Saadeqa: The Arabian Sea is heating up with average surface temperature increasing from 29 C to 31 C in just two years. How could we stop this overheating process to minimize unusual rain patterns in Sind/ Karachi?
Mr. Siddiqui: Sea surface temperature of the Arabian Sea has been increased a little due to global warming, but I disagree with your above numbers (31 C or 29 C, both are not correct). The average SST of the Arabian Sea in January remains near 24 C, while in June or October the SST remains just near 27 C. If it further rises, then cyclone formation is likely to occur along with some other parameters.
There is no method discovered to stop the heating of the Ocean Surface / Sea Surface, except to control global warming or climate change. Moreover, the unusual rain pattern in Sindh / Karachi depends on Monsoon currents during the period from June to September, while it depends upon “Western Disturbances” during the period from October to March. The increasing “Sea Surface Temperature” is causing the increase in tropical cyclones’ frequency in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.
Editorial Note: The question was based on a report of Deutsche Welle English service published 8 Sep 2020, entitled, ‘Pakistan: Climate change, environmental problems put the government on a blind,’ reported by Mr. S khan (Islamabad). It has appeared after further investigation that the news provided wrong and baseless demo-graph which couldn’t be possible under the conditions that we have had last August after having massive rains in Karachi and significant parts of Sind). We are thankful to Mr. Zubair Ahmed Siddiqui for the mention and for making things correct for us.
“Cutting of trees and rapid increase in the number of concrete structures and high-rise buildings is also one of the main reasons for extreme weather in Sindh and Karachi.”
Saadeqa: Karachi, like most parts of Pakistan, has faced fewer rains in the winter season that was very unlikely and indicates climate change even on a more significant level than we expected. Do you agree with it?
Mr. Siddiqui: Sindh receives NO rainfall during the months of January and February 2021, while only 10% of the monthly average during December 2020. A weak La-Nina started effecting during September 2020, while reached Moderate strength during December 2020. A neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) effect persists during the period from October 2020 to February 2021. Both conditions usually suppress the pre-winter precipitation in Pakistan. And yes, these are linked with Climate Change effects as well.
At WMO headquarter Office, Geneva Switzerland. pioneering/establishing the “Third Pole Regional Climate Center Network”
Saadeqa: What Met office predicts for the coming summer season? What could be the max temperature during the peak months of June/July?
Mr. Siddiqui: Extreme weather events, including heatwaves, are the most significant effects of climate change impacts on Pakistan, especially Karachi city. Another reason for increasing temperatures in Karachi during summer is the “Urban Heat Island” effect. Cutting of trees and rapid increase in the number of concrete structures and high-rise buildings is also one of the main reasons. At least one heatwave (or more) is expected during May, June, and July 2021, respectively. Maximum Temperature during the afternoon time may reach above 42 C during the heat waves. At this moment, this is only a seasonal outlook, PMD will issue a more precise forecast one week before these events.
Saadeqa: The Indus river delta has been badly affected by the Arabian Sea intrusion that damaged people’s livelihood and gives rise to climate changes. What measures are needed on urgent notice to stop sea intrusion?
Mr. Siddiqui: Indus Delta will have an adverse effect of sea-level rise on the Pakistan coast. Topographically, Indus Delta is a tidal flat zone. During the event of tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea near Sindh Coasts, “Storm Surges” also cause sea intrusion and severe damage to the Indus Delta zone. An increase in Mangroves forests may help in mitigating this problem. Another measure is building small water-storage-dams near the flash-flood affected areas to store the excess water of flash floods during the monsoon period and then utilize this water during the water-shortage months.
Water, a basic necessity of life, is not available for everyone. It is the sad truth we face today in the 21st century. About 71% of the world is water, but still, why are we facing water scarcity in underdeveloped countries of the world? The answer to this obvious question is that the useable or drinkable water is only 2% of the total water present. And this percentage is falling fast as we easily waste the water we use daily.
Brave Blue World, released in 2020, stars celebrity activists Matt Damon, Jaden Smith, with strong narration by Liam Neeson. Directed and produced by Tim Neeves, this documentary is available on Netflix to stream. Brave blue world, alongside portraying the dreadful picture of the scarcity of water in the world, also provides hope for the new technologies being employed to preserve and recycle water. This documentary is optimistic, encouraging, and promising in solving the water problem in the near future.
The documentary covers the whole world and explains water problems in a specific region and how the people there are applying innovative ideas to solve those problems.
Some of the technologies shown in the documentary are Water box by Jaden Smith, Majik water (extracted water from the atmosphere), Orange county sewage wastewater treatment, Chicago’s biggest wastewater treatment plant, dying factories, and their water treatment, Hydra loop to recycle your household water and last but not the least, Water.org by Matt Damon.
Brave Blue World is optimistic, encouraging, and promising in solving the water problem in the near future.
These inventions help their communities on a local level by providing safe drinking water and have the potential to work globally. The most interesting part I liked about the movie was the way innovators thought about how wastewater could produce a large amount of fertilizer and can be used again for household use. Scientists try to mimic nature and that way, it recycles water to a 100% level. Bio mimicking is utilized in membrane technology where aquaporins (a protein present in our bodies to filter water) were first used in filtering larger amounts of wastewater.
The documentary does not overwhelm us with the fact that we are on the brink of a water catastrophe but suggests different ways to avoid the looming problem. It is a promising movie that shows hope for our future generations that we can and are able to solve the water crisis in our lifetimes. All that is required is to invest in this cause, have the government’s support, and adopt new water recycling methods to mitigate the problem.
I highly recommend everyone reading this review to watch Brave Blue World because after watching, you will be optimistic about evading the water crisis and how you can individually take part in solving the problem.
In much of the earth’s oceans, man-made waste is rising, and nothing is actually disappearing. By 2050, the seas and oceans will have more plastic than fish.
A significant portion of the earth is covered in dumped plastic endangering animal and potentially human health. The accumulation of plastic in our seas and oceans has turned into a major crisis. This increasingly growing plastic waste has overwhelmed our world’s ability to cope with the issue. A garbage truck full of plastic reaches the ocean every minute, ruining beaches, killing species, and infecting our food supply.
Plastic is made from petroleum and is a synthetic polymer with qualities that make it suitable for a broad range of uses, like packaging, construction, domestic and sporting goods, automobiles, electronic devices, and farming. Each year, more than 300 million tons of plastic is manufactured, most of which is then used to create products like shopping bags, disposable cups, bottles, spoons, and straws.
If one were to scoop in the oceans every year, around 8 million tons of plastic would be found. Swirling plastic waste is by far the most common form of ocean pollution right now. Waste plastic in oceans and seas accounts for 80% of all marine litter. Plastic is found on the waters of every country, with higher concentrations of plastic around tourist spots and heavily populated regions.
Plastic waste is found mostly in the waters of developing countries of Asia and Africa. These countries have poor and inadequate litter collection systems and management. Developed nations also face the same difficulty.
Preventing waste materials from reaching rivers, seas, and oceans in the first place is one of the ways to curb plastic pollution
Scientists in the 1960’s first observed the problem of plastic pollution in oceans and seas. Different studies hold different countries responsible for the problem. According to a report from Germany’s Helmholtz Center for Environmental Studies, the bulk of ocean plastic comes from the rivers in Asia and Africa. Research Group at the University of Georgia found out that plastics in oceans and seas would barely drop even if Europe and North America end their plastic production.
Studies have revealed that wildlife suffers directly and fatally as a result of plastic contamination. Every year, hundreds of marine animals, sea turtles, birds, whales, and other sea organisms die as a result of swallowing or being trapped in plastic. Plastics are reported to have harmed nearly 700 animals, including invasive species. It is eaten by almost every seabird species.
Over 100 aquatic organisms, from fish, shrimp to lobsters bound for our plates and bowls, have been reported to contain plastic particles. In certain instances, these insignificant particles move through the digestive tract and are eliminated without causing any damage. Plastics have also been reported to have clogged intestinal tracts or damaged organs, resulting in death. Plastic-filled stomachs inhibit the ability to consume food, contributing to starvation.
It really is hard, if not impossible, to extract plastic litter once it’s in the water. Large items, like plastic plates, cups, spoons, and cans, can be picked up using automated devices, including Trash Wheels. But it is impossible to retrieve after it breaks down into microplastics and drifts deep in water.
Human beings are both a key component of the issue and the solution of this problem, whether they live along the shorelines or far offshore. According to the National Geographic Society, preventing waste materials from reaching rivers, seas, and oceans in the first place is the remedy. Efficient disposal control and recycling, better manufacturing that acknowledges the limited lifespan of disposable products, and a decrease in the manufacture of unwanted plastic materials will all help achieve this target.
Mars. The Red planet. Our Sister planet. It’s the one in our Solar system that enjoys the most prominent place in Ancient Mythology and Astrology across many cultures. Humanity seems to have a centuries-old romance with two celestial bodies; Our Moon and Mars. This fascination engulfs a large number of Scientists & Astronomers as well! It’s the reason that astronomers have closely set their sights on Mars with the advent of modern telescopes. Man did visit the Moon, but since we stopped visiting it, the next stop for space travel was logically set to be Mars.
With advancements in Robotics and Artificial intelligence, the ultimate application of this technology was in Space. Over the years, many orbiter spacecraft and Landers equipped with exploring rovers have been successfully sent to explore Mars. Interestingly, the motivation to explore Mars has always been attached to its past. Was it once habitable? What led to it becoming a barren red planet? Can it be transformed/ terraformed into a habitable planet for humanity? These are the pivotal questions whose answers are being searched today with the latest space technology.
Water on Mars!
The answer to render Mars as livable, the confirmation of the presence of forms of Water on Mars, came as a huge advancement. Early telescopic observers correctly assumed that the white polar caps and clouds were indications of water’s presence. These observations, coupled with the fact that Mars has a 24-hour day, led astronomer William Herschel to declare in 1784 that Mars probably offered its inhabitants a livable environment. It is confirmed through the latest studies that Mars lost its atmosphere and water relatively quickly. Within a short period of time, geologically speaking, all that water disappeared, aided by dust storms. Presently, there is water ice on the poles of Mars (on the surface & underground) and tiny amounts of vapors in the Martian atmosphere.
Let’s have a look at the forms of Water that have been confirmed to be present on Mars:
Water ice below the Martian surface
In 2018, researchers led by USGS planetary geologist Colin Dundas presented detailed observations of eight Martian regions with the help of HiRISE, a powerful camera aboard NASA’s Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. They found several locations where erosion had uncovered large, steep cross-sections of underlying ice. It’s not just the volume of water they found (it’s no mystery that Mars harbors a lot of ice in these particular regions); it’s how mineable it promises to be. The deposits begin at depths as shallow as one meter and extend upwards of 100 meters into the planet. The biggest problem to tap this ice is that these locations are present between 55 and 60 degrees north or south of the equator, where temperatures can drop extremely low. Most Mars missions restrict their landing sites to within 30 degrees of the equator (to remain warm!), as would future crewed missions to the planet’s surface. So we have to wait for a mission planned to land near these sites having underground ice. Erosion on Mars has uncovered large, steep cross-sections of clean, subterranean ice. The following false-color image captured by NASA’s HiRISE camera shows one of the eight discovered stripes that appear dark blue against the Martian terrain.
Researchers have found several locations where erosion had uncovered large, steep cross-sections of underlying ice. Image credit: NASA/JPL/ University of Arizona /USGS
Water ice on the Martian surface
NASA has big plans for returning astronauts to the Moon in 2024, a stepping stone on the path to sending humans to Mars. But where should the first people on the Red Planet land?
A new paper published in Geophysical Research Letters will help by providing a map of water ice believed to be as little as an inch (2.5 centimeters) below the surface. Water ice will be a crucial consideration for any potential landing site. With little room to spare aboard a spacecraft, any human missions to Mars will have to harvest what’s already available for drinking water and making rocket fuel.
In 2018, ESA’s Mars Express took a set of images that showed a large ice-filled crater! The image developed after stitching together five photographs taken by the Mars Express spacecraft is a spectacular shot of the Korolev Crater, a dish-shaped basin on the broad plain that surrounds the Martian north pole.
Kirsten Siebach, a planetary geologist at Rice University in Houston, told NBC News: “There used to be liquid water in rivers and lakes on Mars, but it largely either froze as the atmosphere dissipated or was lost to space about 3 billion years ago,” Siebach said. “Ice still exists on Mars near the poles, and the Martian atmosphere has a tiny amount of water vapor.”
Mars has seasons just as Earth does, but the ice never melts because of the location of the crater and its topography.
A spectacular shot of the Korolev Crater, a dish-shaped basin on the broad plain that surrounds the Martian north pole. Image Credit: ESA/DLR
Water vapors in the Martian atmosphere
In 2008, ESA’s scientists discovered the presence of water vapors in the Martian atmosphere. This was based on the data acquired by the “Mars Express” orbiter, which carried three instruments, PFS, SPICAM, and OMEGA. These allowed planetary scientists to study the water cycle of Mars in unprecedented detail.
In 2020, Scientists using an instrument aboard NASA’s Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN, or “MAVEN” spacecraft, discovered that water vapor near the surface of the Red Planet is lifted high into the atmosphere. The new study’s title is “Hydrogen escape from Mars is driven by seasonal and dust storm transport of water.” The lead author is Shane Stone, a former laboratory chemist who is now a Doctoral student at the University of Arizona Lunar and Planetary Laboratory. Their paper is published in the journal Science. To make their discovery, Stone and his colleagues relied on data from MAVEN’s Neutral Gas and Ion Mass Spectrometer (NGIMS), which was developed at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt Maryland. The mass spectrometer inhales air and separates the ions that comprise it by their mass, which is how scientists identify them.
“We were all surprised to find water so high in the atmosphere,” said Stone, “The measurements we used could have only come from MAVEN as it soars through the atmosphere of Mars, high above the planet’s surface.
Stone and his team tracked the abundance of water ions high over Mars for more than two Martian years. In doing so, they determined that the amount of water vapor near the top of the atmosphere at about 93 miles, or 150 kilometers, above the surface, is highest during summer in the southern hemisphere. During this time, the planet is closest to the Sun and thus warmer, and dust storms are more likely to happen.
The warm summer temperatures and strong winds associated with dust storms help water vapor reach the uppermost parts of the atmosphere, where it can easily be broken into its constituent oxygen and hydrogen. The hydrogen and oxygen then escape to space. Previously, scientists thought that water vapor was trapped close to the Martian surface like it is on Earth.
“Everything that makes it up to the higher part of the atmosphere is destroyed, on Mars or Earth,” Stone said, “because this is the part of the atmosphere that is exposed to the full force of the Sun.”
Formation of water vapors on Mars. Image credit: University of Arizona/Shane Stone/NASA Goddard/Dan Gallagher
This phenomenon was also confirmed recently, along with the fact that some of it is vaporizing, in the form of hydrogen leaking from the atmosphere, according to the new research co-authored in the journal Science Advances by two scientists at Britain’s Open University.
They detected the vapor by analyzing light passing through the Martian atmosphere using an instrument called the Nadir and Occultation for Mars Discovery.
The device is traveling aboard the ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter, a joint mission between the European Space Agency (ESA) and Russia’s ROSCOSMOS.
Future of Possibilities!
Scientists are very optimistic about new discoveries as we are witnessing new spacecraft entering the Martian orbit. Namely, UAE’s HOPE Mars mission, the Chinese Tianwen-1 mission, and NASA’s Perseverance rover. Especially, the mission profile of the Perseverance rover is very promising. It has landed and started roving the Jezero Crater, whose fan-shaped delta and rim show it was once a lake that was several hundred feet deep! The latest images are being analyzed by planetary & geological scientists. It is imperative that we are going to discover new exciting facts about the forms of Water on Mars and so much more!
Agriculture is an important sector of Pakistan’s economy. This sector directly supports the country’s population and accounts for 21 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Roughly 95 percent of Pakistan’s water is used for agriculture, with 60 percent of its population directly connected to agriculture and livestock and 80 percent of exports based on these sectors. Recently, the Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources issued a serious warning regarding continuous careless water mismanagement and that the country may totally run out of water by 2025.
Dr. Pervez Aamir is a senior environmental economist at the Asianic Agro division environmental. He completed his early education at Lassale High School Faisalabad in 1972. Later he graduated in Plant Breeding and Plant Genetics from the University of Agriculture Faisalabad, followed by Ph.D. in agricultural economics from Michigan State University in 1984. He currently works in advanced environmental economics courses at Harvard University and is the former research associate at Winrock International.
Below are excerpts of his recent conversation with our team member Aniqa Mazhar.
Aniqa: Please enlighten us with an introduction of yourself.
Dr. Pervaiz: I am an economist and the director of the Pakistan Water Partnership and a former member of the Prime Minister’s Task Force for Climate Change.
Aniqa: How do environmental economics benefit society and agriculture?
Dr. Pervaiz: Environmental issues like climate change, pollution, fog, and particularly pesticides directly affect agriculture. If you successfully control pollution in urban areas, its impact can be directly observed on our wheat crop.
Similarly, if we properly control environmental regulations and patents and medicines in livestock and crop agriculture, it will also show direct benefits. Likewise, if we plant trees in the whole country instead of just specific tsunami-affected areas, rainfall patterns can improve significantly as rainfall increases. This is very beneficial for a dry country like Pakistan.
Poor countries of the world first focus on the ‘stomach,’ social services, health, education allocation, etc. Environment comes later.
Aniqa: What do we basically study in environmental economics? Environmental science is part of Biology, so how is it linked to Economics?
Dr. Perviaz: The main thrust of economics is allocating resources like land, labor, capital, etc., for the maximum benefit of society. Different issues in biology and environmental studies like residues, the ionosphere can be dealt with keeping in mind the economic perspective, which is called opportunity cost.
For example, if we start a cement factory-like in Kallar Kahaar, it may be that it proves to be a source of prosperity for its stakeholder, but the life of that area, either trees or wildlife, is affected. Water quality is concerned.
This is where the two fields’ symbiosis occurs; looking at biology through an economic lens and keeping in mind the biological limitations when studying economics. Covid-19 is an excellent example. The virus has led to the complete destruction of the country’s economy, closed all businesses during the lockdown, and still negatively impacted it.
Aniqa: Nature is indeed the GDP of the lows; their income largely depends on it. Why don’t we recognize this in Pakistan and invest in preserving nature?
Dr. Pervaiz: We do recognize this, but our budget for the Ministry of Environment is the lowest. The Environment becomes a priority with the progressive advancement of a country and how rich it is. Most trees planted in the world are in the US or Canada, or Europe. India also has about 30 percent cover by forests.
Dr. Pervaiz (second from left) with renowned Pakistani diplomats. Photo Dr. Amir
Poor countries of the world first focus on the ‘stomach,’ social services, health, education allocation, etc. Environment comes later. In Pakistan, less than one percent of the total budget is allocated to the Ministry of Environment. Now, it has been made to the Ministry of Climate Change. They have combined the fields of Environment and Climate Change. The 17 SDGs include separate goals for trees, birds, oceans, land, economics, and education. About three to four 3 goals linked to the Environment are lumped together. Separate allocation is not available.
The poor farmers have animals who graze land or trees or any biomass. The main thrust of our economy is to increase the GDP, whether it is sustainable or not. Sustainability is not a concern.
Aniqa: Climate change is still a rarely discussed topic in Pakistan. Why is it so?
Dr. Perviaz: I don’t believe that’s true. We have worked a lot on climate change in Pakistan in the last 18 to 20 years or so. I have been very closely associated with it. Pakistan ranks 5th in the German Watch right now. The German Watch is a world risk index, but two or more countries present have no reality.
Aniqa: What is the German Watch?
Dr. Pervaiz: It is a Vulnerability Index for 122 countries of the world. It ranks countries according to their climatic risks. In that ranking, Pakistan’s name comes in the top ten. It has always been so, but this time it is on the 5th number. Countries like Fiji, Philippines are in the top 4, and they are pretty small countries with a population even smaller than Karachi. So, in my view, the most vulnerable to Climate change would have to be Pakistan.
We are part of the Paris Agreement as well and have provided several reportings to them. Our emissions are pretty less globally; we stand at number 135 in emissions in the world. But where the effects of Climate change are concerned, whether they may be a shortage of water, biodiversity, glacier melting, marine life, or droughts, they are all severe. In Pakistan, climate change has multiple threats, unlike in Europe, where there’s just a change in temperature and weather.
Therefore, we take this issue of climate change extremely seriously, but we’ve lumped it with Environment and cannot distinguish the two as separate fields, although I believe the distinction is quite clear.
Aniqa: The Environment includes plants, animals, etc. Climate affects all of these, right?
Dr. Pervaiz: Yes, all of these are affected by climate changes.
According to Dr. Pervaiz, We should introduce this field of climate change from an early level at school to a higher Ph.D. level.Photo Dr. Amir
Aniqa: Sir, why is it then that we are not able to differentiate between these two? What is lacking in our research or the methodology of the people working on this?
Dr. Pervaiz: You see, research is already mere. Now, a couple of universities have come to start work on this. ITCC reports, which are international, are only focused upon here.
We have opened up many departments on Environment in many universities, but departments for Climate Change have been opened only recently at LUMS and one or two other places. These are units rather than full-fledged departments. The hardcore work of Climatology has two phases: adaptation and mitigation.
We should introduce this field of climate change from an early level at school to a higher Ph.D. level. In Islamabad, there is a center at the Ministry of Climate Change, previously known as the Ministry of Environment, called CGSIC, a global climate change center. COMSATs University is also doing some work on Climate change, as well as the University of Faisalabad.
Aniqa: So, all these departments are introductory?
Dr.Pervaiz: Yes, a lot of investment is required. The field of Environment is relatively better established. It is the people of the Environment who exhibit leadership in climate change.
Aniqa: Are these two different fields, or can we say that climate change is a subfield of environmental science?
Dr. Pervaiz: Weather is the day-to-day characterization of the atmospheric conditions, whereas climate describes long-term atmospheric conditions. They are distinct subjects but entirely overlapping, for example, how carbon dioxide emissions affect the Environment.
Aniqa: The Indian Government has canceled hydroelectric projects to conserve rainforests. However, in Pakistan, our electric consumption depends on hydroelectric sources despite massive rain patterns. What do you think?
Dr. Pervaiz: India is working on 5000 dams. We only have 3 to 4 dams. Water security is the most important in the world. Nuclear power and other things do not matter as much. Countries that are water-secure survive while those that are not.
We make dams for water storage at a point to regulate and make it reach a place where a shortage is faced. An extra benefit of a dam is hydropower. You can attach the dam to a turbine to create electricity.
Pakistan is still deficient in electricity. Our struggle is to ban activities that lead to carbon dioxide emissions like burning oil for generators, burning coal, etc. hydropower is the best strategy for Pakistan. To be exact, hydropower, wind energy, solar energy.
India is going towards solar rapidly as well as currently making the most significant number of dams. Our main threat is India, and we need more focus to cope.
Aniqa: How are economic activities related to water resources and the Environment?
Dr. Pervaiz: Pakistan’s economy is basically agriculture-based. Most of our economic activities revolve around our crops. If we talk about sugarcane, it is used in sugar mills. Cotton produced is used in the textile industry. Agriculture is a way of living for us. Our industries would halt without it. We want to provide a facilitative environment for agriculture. For that, safe drinking water is the first most essential thing required. No country can advance without it. Around 40 percent of diseases in Pakistan are due to dirty water, like diarrhea.
Next, if the air in your Environment is not clean due to industries or atomic waste, children’s lungs are affected from birth. Their productive life is less than 50 years. It is crucial to tailor the Environment so that our life expectancy increases to 80 to 90 years like in America.
The quality of life should also improve. If people go to the park, they should feel at peace and harmony with birds and nature. In Europe, for example, societies with suitable physical and biological Environments have higher productivity. Factories with trees and clean water in their vicinity will have more productive labor.
Look at Kalma Chowk in Lahore, people are dying from coughing and sputtering. How productive do you expect them to be with such a condition?
Aniqa: Water is an essential part of economic development. Do you think Pakistan works well in this regard?
Dr. Pervaiz: Many people say that Pakistan had 5000 cm3 of water when made in 1947. Now it has even less than a 1000cm3 left. The main reason is not that the amount of water has lessened. The population growth of Pakistan is relatively high. Availability per capita is quite less due to mismanagement of water resources. We plant crops like sugarcane and cotton, etc., which are very water-intensive.
People living near the rivers face no water shortage, but Southern Punjab faces a severe drought.
The main reason for shortage is not that the amount of water has lessened. The population growth of Pakistan is relatively high. Availability per capita is quite less due to mismanagement of water resources.
Aniqa: So, areas with less water have slower economic development?
Dr. Pervaiz: Yes, exactly. Where does terrorism occur? In extreme and dry desert areas and peripheries of Balochistan, KPK, Sindh, and Punjab.
Aniqa: Which economic, political, and cultural factors significantly impact local agricultural practices in Pakistan?
Dr. Pervaiz: The most significant is land-reforms. The main chunk of the population’s land is in landlords’ hands, who rarely visit those lands. In India or other countries, 65 acres or 1 acre of land is the maximum an owner can have at a time.
Pakistan has been affected by early politics; it was made by the inherited properties of Nawabs and landlords. The English adopted the method of grasping power by land and water allocation, control, and distribution in the political economy. So that’s why Pakistan’s history includes only a few families with the land.
We need productive gain per acre of land, which can be achieved when society prioritizes agriculture as a focal thrust. When wheat, fruits, and vegetables start to go down, all the public starts screaming. When they are available, nobody wants to worry about agriculture. Other sources like McDonald’s, Defense in Lahore and societies, are given priority and allocation.
Aniqa: What is available is always taken for granted?
Dr. Pervaiz: Exactly. You asked at the beginning about poverty. We can reduce it when water is appropriately managed. 20 percent of our GDP that is 50 billion dollars, is from agriculture. We can quickly increase it to 350 billion dollars! If we surmount political barriers and develop our deserts like China, poverty can be erased, and harmony can prevail.
The poor can eat, distribution to other countries can also be possible. This is called the ‘multiplier factor’ in economics. When money is transferred to England by Nawaz Sharif, the economy faces a net loss. Money made in Pakistan should be invested in agriculture and circulated here to increase Pakistan’s productivity and reduce poverty.
Aniqa: My last question is that economic and ecological systems are interlinked at the local and global levels. What challenges do we face due to massive environmental changes in different parts of Pakistan? For example, the sea intrusion in the Indus Delta, glacier melting, droughts in Balochistan?
Dr. Pervaiz: We either deliberately or unintentionally disturb the ecological system. People say sea intrusion is because of dam-building, but both these are not related. Dam water is used in industry, agriculture, and power generation. Studies show it is a natural phenomenon and is not affected by dams built on top regarding sea intrusion.
Cutting of mangroves and deforestation are at peak in the world. Humankind disturbed the ecological balance itself. Pakistan has 1046 km of coastal areas; we export crawlers and planted them there. That totally destroys the natural flora and fauna over there. Other plants from France and China are also totally ruining the ecological balance there.
Likewise, Pakistan is one of the lowest countries in the world in tree plantation. Not even 4.2 percent of our land is covered with forests. Good countries have 25 to 30 percent cover. Canada has 60 percent cover. Our cover is so less that it leads to soil erosion, and ecological imbalance is inevitable. Severe erosion leads to issues like landslides which also affect the ecology.
People are making a racket about the Indus Dolphin’s extinction, but they don’t care about its habitat. Species depletion is occurring rapidly. Natural parks are rare, while their protection is almost zero.
In olden times, villages had ponds with birds and animals. Now, societies are being made in all these areas and creating biological imbalance.
Aniqa: This imbalance is because industrialization is increasing, right?
Dr. Pervaiz: Yes, cities and industrial zones are increasing at their own pace, but small factories everywhere outside a zone are very problematic—for example, the brick kilns industry.
Ecological balance is at the lowest ladder of economic thinkers. Their vision is blocked; they don’t want to think about the outcome. They just think about the money they’ll get, the money that’ll go in the FBR. Money is all that is being focused on.
Aniqa: Thank you very much, Sir, for your precious time and for sharing your knowledge!
Dr. Pervaiz: My pleasure! I hope you got the answers you were looking for and I wish you the best of luck with your magazine!
It was on February 7, 2021, when a glacier collapse in India’s Himalayan state of Uttarakhand resulted in devastating floods, leaving over 140 feared dead.
A week later, on February 14, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) released a statement fearing that the Chitral district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province could face flash floods as a result of another glacier collapse.
The reason for PMD’s worry was a prevailing heatwave in the region. An earlier such incident in the Golen Gol valley in the district had ruined crops and several homes too. The fear on part of the PMD was not misplaced as a timely alert system was still lacking.
The devastation was so severe, according to the regional press, that four bridges and a considerably large area of an important road – the only one connecting the valley with other surrounding establishments – was washed away. Many families were left stranded in the mountains, who then waited to be rescued through military helicopters.
As per the PMD, there are at least 10 glaciers in Chitral Valley’s highland alone. They say, those glaciers are hypersensitive and could burst anytime. Meaning, it is a disaster waiting to happen.
These glacial outbursts, or in technical terms Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF), in India’s Uttarakhand state or in Pakistan’s Chitral district were not isolated incidents and scientists fear that with the warming climate, the pace of such disasters could increase.
What is GLOF, one may wonder? In simpler terms, it is occurring of sudden disaster resulting in the release of millions of cubic metres of water, and with it, the debris, to wherever the direction will take it.
What needs to be understood in this situation is that one cannot possibly stop a glacier collapse, but what can be done is ensuring the placement of an early alert system to minimize any damage to human lives.
According to scientists, Glacial Lake Outburst Floods are not isolated incidents and with the warming of climate this pace may increase
In this regard, the PMD says it is already working with United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) to put in place small-scale lake outburst warning systems, the building of walls to protect from potential floods, and to educate the people living close to risk areas so that they know what steps to take in case of emergence of an emergency-like situation.
However, Pakistan has a long and diverse range of mountains, such as the Hindu Kush, the Himalayas, and the Karakorum. And outside the polar regions, Pakistan hosts the most glaciers: 7,000, to be exact.
As temperatures continue to rise the world over, glaciers present in these mountainous ranges are melting rapidly. So much so that as per the UNDP and the Ministry of Climate Change’s estimates, as quoted by Dawn in a report published on March 2, a total of 3,044 glacial lakes have formed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan alone. And of these, the estimates say that 33 are hazardous and could face glacial outbursts anytime.
Keeping this in view, the country’s Ministry of Climate Change, with the support of the UNDP, signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO) on March 1 for use of satellite imagery to help the ministry get a clearer picture of glacial lakes and better equip it in its efforts to mitigate effects of climate change.
But monitoring of glacial lakes, helping in predicting any possible outbursts, is easier said than done. The disaster in India’s Uttarakhand state happened due to a lack of monitoring, and the difficult terrain of the Himalayas only adds to the challenges.
In a report published by BBC on March 5, as a follow-up to the Uttarakhand tragedy, a glaciologist associated with the Indian Institute of Technology in Indore, Muhammad Farooq Azam, said there were more than 50,000 glaciers in the regions of the Himalayas and the Hindu Kush and that only 30 of them were being closely monitored, which included field studies as well. “Only around 15 of those studies have been published. We need to be observing our glaciers more closely, particularly because so many factors are at play,” he said.
There are more than 50,000 glaciers in the regions of the Himalayas and the Hindu Kush and that only 30 of them were being closely monitored
Though Pakistan is responsible for very little greenhouse gas emission, it is still among those countries adversely affected by the effects of climate change. To make this better, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan, who projects himself as an environmentalist, has time and again shown his concern on various global forums regarding deteriorating climatic conditions and their adverse effects on poorer countries.
Recently, he shared a video on his Twitter where World Economic Forum (WEF) was praising the initiatives his government has undertaken and how they are helping Pakistan heading towards a “greener future”.
The WEF video highlights how Pakistan has pledged to source 60% of its energy through renewables by the year 2030; how it has cancelled its coal-fired power projects and replacing them with hydroelectric power; how it has created over 85,000 green jobs ranging from plant care to protection of forests; and, how it is investing in green space, securing $180 million in funding, to create 15 new national parks. Though, there has been criticism from environmentalists that WEF’s video is not based on facts and that the government hasn’t cancelled all coal-fired projects.
This does appear to be a fascinating development towards cleansing the polluted environment and help mitigate the effects of climate change, but what is also true is that in Pakistan, regulations pertaining to the environment is a provincial matter following the 18th Constitutional Amendment, and none of the provinces have an environmental policy to speak of yet.
Pakistan elevated its climate change division into a functional ministry in the year 2015, but critics remained sceptical whether this would translate into effective policymaking and better implementation of climate change-related goals. In the year 2017, the country’s parliament passed a Climate Change Act that created a council under the premiership of the prime minister to fast-track and oversees policies and their implementation. However, it has been four years and the council is yet to organise a meeting.
While the melting of glaciers because of global warming is something scientists have been warning of for a long time, still the pace at which the process is happening is astounding for even experts. The situation does not concern only those living in risk areas, but a great number of people as scientists argue that the melting of glaciers on such a big scale has the potential to destabilise rivers in Asia, resulting in a chain reaction affecting much of the southern part of the continent.
Speaking of South Asia, the geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan are only aggravating the problem. If the situation does reach such a point, then the damage will not be India’s or Pakistan’s alone to handle. The warming of the climate, or melting of glaciers as a result of it, will not care about the nationalities of people before wreaking havoc. There is a need for joint action, and on an emergency basis, to mitigate the effects of climatic changes and better prepare for the welfare of populations that are at the forefront and likely to get affected by it first.
There is a need to join hands and formulate a robust policy and putting in place effective monitoring systems so that peoples of the region could be assisted in a timely manner and the countries can better prepare themselves in preempting any disasters that may occur in the future and take actions accordingly.
There are a couple of diverse reasons involved in water scarcity worldwide. Water could get scarce due to the physical shortage of water (lack of rainfall), the administration fails to preserve water resources, or the entire absence of adequate infrastructure to ensure a regular supply of drinking water to the communities, even in the places where water is abundant.
A report of the water scarcity clock shows that water usage has grown at more than twice the growth in the world’s population over the last century. Climate change has intensified the risk of drought in several parts of the world, especially Asia and Africa. The demographics are pretty horrible; it indicates that around 2 billion people are now experiencing a high-level water shortage.
Water scarcity is not merely a vague problem. Over the last two decades, we can observe its effects in some brutal forms. In Yemen, one of the most water-scarce countries globally, water shortage leading to social and political upheaval. It was also the invisible hand behind other humanitarian crises; like in 2010, the Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria broke out of the demand for clean drinking water. Meanwhile, in Pakistan, Sind and Baluchistan were primarily affected by prolonged drought spells in the last decades. During the 2017-2018 drought seasons, a slight rise in the suicide rate was observed in rural parts of Sind. After a massive migration from these areas, the physical environment, poverty, and loneliness forced the remaining inhabitants to commit suicide as they were left with no hope.
Water is a precious life-giving commodity; it becomes scarce because it is never treated as worthy as gold, oil, gas, or other natural resources of industrial importance. The American multinational investment bank Goldman Sachs once said that “water could be the petroleum for the 21st century.” The think tanks suggested that commercializing water resources and sending a price signal could force governments and industries/ agriculture sectors to use water wisely. As a result, many close-end-funds invest a considerable amount to buy water supplies in several countries.
However, making a profit out of water resources could hazardous in the future and results in disputes among nations; a living example is Pakistan and India’s water dispute. The situation needs to deal wisely by the authorities. Water access and usage can be protected through effective policies. Like Carbon-tax implemented in several countries, a water tax for the large multinational and subsidies could apply to save water infrastructure investments for the lows worldwide.
Drought, Mangrove in parched land. French Guiana. Credits: WWF
In 2010, in Cape Town, South Africa, the authorities had introduced the term “Day Zero” to focus the public’s attention on water preservation for the future. It was because the demo-graphs were showing a critical situation, and the city was just three months away from running out of water. It was indeed a luck-charm that Cape Town city’s plan worked out, and this last-minute emergency measure managed to get the city out of the water crisis.
But this “hope” strategy wouldn’t work everywhere and every time. Because the primary cause that the planet is running out of water is low precipitation due to the profound climate changes.
According to the “charting our water futures” report by the global consultancy McKinsey, by 2030, global water requirements would increase from 4500 billion cubic meters to 6900 cubic meters under an average economic growth scenario. The demo-graph shows a wide gap between supplies and demands. The report further states that the drivers for this more water-resource challenge are basically tied to the states’ economic development, food consumption, and trades.
Keeping an eye on the global water crisis, Scientia Pakistan is launching its exclusive edition on world water day; it celebrates worldwide to raise awareness among the 2.2 billion populations living without clean drinking water. The theme for world water day in 2021 is “valuing water,” which sums up environmental, social, ethical, economic, and moral values that people should place to figure out the global water crisis.
We have got some exciting stories on water scarcity in different parts of the world, the melting of Himalayan Glaciers, and modern-day agriculture techniques in the desert of Thar (Rural parts of Sind). We reached out to Dr. Perviaz Amir, a Harvard university Alumnus; director of the Pakistan water partnership, who worked on various notable posts in the Agro-Economics sector to gain insight into the role of water in Pakistan’s economy. We questioned Mr. Zubair Ahmad Siddiqui, a metrology and climatology expert who serves in the PMD’S regional center for Sindh and learned some compelling information about Al Nino, La Nina, and climate changes.
Have a good read; don’t miss sending your feedback to us with the hashtag #water2me.
Noise pollution is a causative agent of stress and deteriorating health. This fact is not only applicable to humans but animals as well.
Recently, a study carried out by ecologists at the University of Victoria in Canada confirms that human activities are disturbing ocean life in several ways, noise pollution being lately included in the list.
Shipping traffic causes too much noise for aquatic life, they are in a place with constant high noise levels. Marine life use sound waves to communicate with each other, for hunting and for mating as well. Excessive sound waves from ships disturb their ability to interpret natural sounds, therefore ruining their quality of life. Masking is the word used to describe the drowning of natural sounds into noises of the same frequency.
Shipping traffic causes too much noise for aquatic life. Excessive sound waves from ships disturb the ability of marine life to interpret natural sounds. Credits: Marine Insight
Exposure to continuous loud frequencies and amplitudes leads to the fish being under stress and at risk of permanently losing its hearing. This has a negative effect on their capability to mate, survive and fight disease due to weak immunity.
According to scientists, other human activities which result in drastic climatic changes are also responsible for muddling up the intricate ocean soundscape. Climate change basically messes up physical processes that shape ocean sounds, like wind, wave, and melting ice.
A positive fact is that noise pollution is easy to deal with- you just need to stop its source. It can be dealt with more easily than other types of pollution, where time and organization are required at a higher level. The effects of noise pollution can be reversed once the noise is ceased.
A few weeks back, when my cable operator shut-down my channel subscriptions, I could only see nothing but the “Radiation of Big Bang” sarcastically and philosophically; I could see nothing but everything at the same time. CMB is one of the very discussed, researched, and debated topics among cosmologists all over the world; why not? It’s one of the proofs of the big bang, and many regard it as “Light of Beginning of the Creation itself.”
Last year, I had the privilege to learn and meet one of the most active and vigilant cosmologists in Pakistan, Faisal Ur Rahman (Currently a Ph.D. Candidate, Researcher & Visiting Member at the University of Karachi), who also happens to be a part of an International Group of Cosmologists; “Investigating the Cosmic Microwave Background Cold-Spot.” I walked by him a few miles and asked him a number of questions regarding his work on the “Cold Spot,” which happens to fall into a long series of explanations about the phenomenon, which I’ll be discussing throughout this textual endeavor.
His-ideas are narrated in my words: Our standard model of the big-bang tells us that our Universe was a hotter, extremely-dense plasma type, made up of elementary particles such as nuclei, electrons, and protons only for the first few hundred thousand years. And just after 380,000 years old, our space-time in the Universe had expanded and cooled to below 3000K, allowing the birth of atoms and the first atoms of the first element “Hydrogen” formation. As the free electrons and protons decreased to a very small fraction, the photons were finally able to move around the Universe and till the existence of today’s CMB. And that’s why to regard it as an evidentiary account of the Birth of the Universe. Further, as we know, the Universe is expanding today; thanks to the discovery by Astronomer Hubble, the current CMB wavelength is stretched and has a temperature of just about 2.7K.
Faisal Ur Rahman giving a seminar on “Big Bang: The Birth of Universe” on the invitation of the Royal Aeronautical Society Pakistan.
When analyzed at around 10-5K, it’s all isotropic, and the entire CMB has a fine blackbody spectrum (fully uniform temperature). But, as we change it to the microkelvin scale, we start seeing the variations in the graph of Temperature in terms of different temperatures, some cold, some hot, and some hotter. It is important to note that matter wasn’t evenly distributed after the big bang due to the tiny quantum fluctuations in densities. Instead, we can always see some areas have more matter or galaxies, and some don’t, eventually giving rise to the cosmic web we see in the models of the Universe. The CMB photons traveling from the surface of the last scattering moving through a denser region have to overcome a deeper gravitational pull which results in an apparent redshift, and the photons passing through a less dense region will appear blue-shifted.
The increase or decrease in the wavelength of the CMB photons is caused by the changes in μK scale or parameters. More vividly, there’s a relation between the large-scale universe and temperature anisotropies, different temperatures at larger scales, referring to different properties. There’s a Sachs-Wolfe effect, which is a gravitational effect on the large-scale anisotropy of the CMB, which has two kinds. First is the “Ordinary Sach-Wolfe effect,” the non-integrated type, which is related to the early Universe only and tells us about the redshift of light from the last scattering surface. Then the other is the “Integrated Sach-Wolfe (ISW) effect,” which depends on the changes in gravity as the matter-density in the Universe evolves over time, eventually a change in CMB photons.
The evolution of the Universe, with main events occurring at different intervals of time. Credits: Phys.libretexts.org
The primitive fluctuations in the CMB have the strong support of evidence for cosmic inflation, and cosmologists believe that the Universe had the uttermost rapid expansion when it was merely seconds old. Researchers estimate the relative abundance or amount of Dark Matter and Dark Energy in the Universe by the CMB fluctuations, along with Gravitational Lensing as predicted by Einstein’s theory of General Relativity and the Sunyaev-Zel’dovic Effect: In which the CMB photons are distorted due to the high level of energetic electrons in the clusters of galaxies they come through.
Penzias and Wilson stand at the 15 meter Holmdel Horn Antenna that brought their most notable discovery. Credits: ESA
Since the discovery of CMB in 1964 by Physicist Arno Penzias and Radio-Astronomer Robert Wilson (For which they won the Nobel Prize of 1978), the Cosmic Microwave Background has given scientists oceans of information and curiosity. Although, it has raised some of the most substantial and complex questions and anomalies, as the strange incongruity of the CMB, as seen from both opposite hemispheres of the sky.
The map of Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) temperature as data collected by the ESA’s Planck satellite, and confirmed fluctuations, the circled) cold spot, which extends over the large area of the sky and has a too lower temperature. Credits: ESA/Planck/Physics World
In the CMB, there lies a substantial question, a huge cold spot, which is around a billion light-years across. This cold spot was first seen by WMAP in 2004 and more strongly discovered by ESA’s Planck Satellite. We call it “CMB Cold Spot,” it’s around 70µK cold on average than the entire CMB temperature of the Universe and located in the southern celestial hemisphere.
In other ways, it may be a possibility that the cold-spot was born the first of the big bang density fluctuations or irregularities that bought the entire CMB temperature anisotropies into existence because those anisotropies have a Gaussian distribution, which only permits small variations (at the scale of around 16µK) but not such large. A few found places the temperature of the spot is around 150μK colder than the average CMB, more than of which is permitted from a Gaussian distribution. The radius of the cosmic cold spot extends about an angle of 5°, but apparently, on the other hand, the largest fluctuation found in the primordial CMB temperatures occurs at 1°, making it peculiar and uncanny.
If we go through the literature review, the researchers have postulated many different hypotheses of this mysterious cold spot in our Universe, and a lot of debate is going on to reveal its mystery and reason of occurrence. Few explanations suggest that the spot is nothing but forefront contamination of the matter (as a kind of dust or synchrotron radiation) within our galaxy or some kind of celestial object. But, profoundly, the observations of NRAO Very Large Array Sky Survey (NVSS), 2 Micron All-Sky Survey (2MASS), Sloan Digital Survey, with proper detailed optical images of Hubble, show us that ‘no object’ found at those coordinates.
Void and null
One suggested simple but questionable explanation for it is that there might be a “super huge void” between us and the cold spot, but our universe structure on a larger scale, the galaxies have already been found in voids, their density can be much lesser in some cases (1/10th) than other densely populated areas in the Universe. On another side, the Universe also has superclusters – regions where there are more galaxies or quantities of matter in easy terms than normal cases.
Veiled void? One promising explanation for the phenomenon is that there exists a vast cosmic “supervoid” between us and the cold spot, thanks to the large-scale structure of the Universe. While galaxies still exist within voids, their density of matter is much less (one-tenth of the average) than in other regions of the Universe. On the flip side, the Universe also contains superclusters – huge regions with many more galaxies than normal.
Faisal Ur Rahman (Physics World, 2019) says that according to analysis, “Both supervoids and superclusters have a very impactful effect on the photons of the CMB as the Integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect varies due to the physical properties of it, it can also be termed as late-time ISW effect. As the CMB photons pass through the superclusters (passing through huge gravitational effects), they gain potential energy as they pass through the superclusters and have a thermal energy increase. Everything is fine; the increase in energy within the photon should be dispersed once the photon comes out of the gravitational valley of the supercluster. But, there’s another factor, Dark Energy, that comes into action, which is responsible for the overall expansion of our Universe.
During the time when a photon travels across a supercluster, dark energy expands the valley, stretching it in a way that the photon leaving does not have the extra energy to climb back out of the valley. That’s why the CMB photons have some heat. In the same manner, the super-voids work as gravitational hills, and the entering photon of the CMB loses more energy while getting into a void and getting out with regain in energy as they are leaving the void (as now the void is big due to the dark energy). This phenomenon colds the photons. The ISW has a possibility in this phenomenon for the CMB cold spot, and there must be a supervoid existing in the place of the cold-spot then.
Lambda-CDM Model of the Universe.
Hide and seek
Discussing another study in 2007 at the University of Minnesota by Rudnick and colleagues claimed the presence of supervoid in that place, but a prominent dip in extragalactic brightness and numbers of radio sources that were present there, as seen through the NVSS radio catalog. But another study done by University of Cambridge researchers under Kendrick Smith and collaborators of the University of Michigan in 2010 found that there’s no data evidence for the presence of dips in NVSS maps, which dismissed the presence of a supervoid. Further later in 2014, Seshadri Nadathur of the University of Helsinki concluded that the ISW influence on the CMB light from the believed supervoid is not a possible explanation of the cold-spot. They said that for the possibility of the necessary photon temperature decrease via ISW, the supervoid must be extremely massive and without matter that our standard model of the cosmology will be violated and changed, known as ΛCDM.
ACDM provides us with an overall understanding of the Universe in a way that dark matter (26.8% of the Universe is mass/energy) and dark energy for 68.3%. The war between the gravity of the dark matter and dark energy’s expansion of the cosmos. Nedathur’s work finds that by anyway, we ought to explain the cold-spot that would be completely anomalous for our knowledge of today.
More puzzling, another claim rose in 2014, when a team of astronomers under the leadership of István Szapudi of the University of Hawaii found a rare supervoid, with a size of 1.8 billion light-years. And they quoted it as “the largest individual structure ever identified by humanity.” They combined the infrared data from NASA’s Wide-field Survey Explorer (WISE) 2MASS Catalogue and Hawaii’s Pan-STARRS1 (PS1) optical observations for it. They surveyed galaxies near the cold-spot boundaries and found a supervoid. According to the team of Hawaii, the void was 3 Billion light-years away from us, which was not found in previous surveys because searches in the past focused on the early Universe, farther away from us in space and time. Besides this discovery, researchers realized that the large supervoid isn’t enough for the CMB Cold Spot’s temperature down, as the cooling Integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect would be a maximum of 20μK.
To test the hypothesis of Szapudi, spectroscopic data was used by a team led by Ruari Mackenzie of the University of Durham from the 2dF-VST ATLAS Cold Spot Redshift (2CSz) survey at the Anglo-Australian Telescope in New South Wales, so they could study the redshift in-line of sight to the cold spot. They measured twice from different lines of sight and found three voids out to a distance of three billion light-years and with a possibility of a fourth void as well. Although all the voids were smaller than the void Szapudi predicted in his research, they all had an overall 31μK ISW cooling impact, but simply not most-likely enough to support the cold spot.
Surprisingly, all the research led to this theory that the voids are not the conclusion here; it’s due to something else, the massive size must have something to with primordial fluctuations. This is so because the standard ΛCDM model will be conflicting if we go through Szapudi’s idea of supervoid. While on the other hand, coded simulations suggest that there’s only a 1 in 50 chance of random, nonGaussian quantum fluctuation in the CMB for the birth of the cosmic cold spot.
Unusual Structures
Thinking with a different approach, there lies another explanation for the cold spot of the CMB. Maybe the motion of matter or galaxies within that region is unusual, with a super gravitational effect. This could be something similar to the concept of “Greater Attractor,” a kind of abnormality at the mid-point of Laniakea supercluster (the object between our Milky Way) which occurs due to extremity of the presence of mass, and the related “Dipole Repelling,” which works as a gravitational repulsion on the large scale flow of galaxies in our local group, and that might be supposed to exist due to large supervoid. These both have their effect on the CMB dipole, but none such abnormal or unusual structures have been identified within the cold-spot or its surrounding place. Another study from independent sources by Qi Quo and fellows at the Chinese Academy of Science pushed forward the probability of 19 dwarf galaxies that have dark-matter insufficiency, which is very strange because mostly these small galaxies are filled with dark matter normally.
Among these galaxies, 14 are isolated, and they are not the satellite-orbiting type around a large galaxy like ours, which leads to the view that the dark matter deficiency was not the result of any connection with larger or other dwarf galaxies. As per studies, these low-dark-matter dwarf galaxies may change the results of other ISW parameters, all of which are impacted by dark matter. Some cosmologists believe that may be a cold-spot answer lies with the theory of inflation itself? Or maybe after it. Maybe after the whole big-bag, within the infant universe, this patch of the Universe went on for a longer period of infancy, due to which the cold-spot came into being naturally in that part of the Universe. That’s a theory put forward by Yi Wang at the Honk Kong University of Science and Technology and Yin-Zhe Ma of the University of KwaZulu-Natal of South Africa. They proposed a “feature scattering” system of inflation that predicts cold spots (not hot ones). But, still, these substantial questions must be consistent with the validity of other phenomena, including the impact of such anomalies on permutations of density and the overall stars and galaxy evolutions within our Universe.
Since I’ve discussed so many circulating solutions to uncover this mystery, it’s important to consider each explanation with the larger context of the cosmology, such as Ia supernovae, baryonic acoustic oscillations, and the entire CMB itself for supporting evidence. Some gravitational physicists suggest that a more precise Hubble constant value can be arrived at in the future through mergers of neutron stars or black holes. These observations, with some changes in value for the cosmological parameters, must support the ΛCDM, and so any solution must be consistent and agreeable with the model.
But, still exploring alternatives outside our standard model play an important role in studying the anomalies such as itself, the cold-spot. For example, Elenora Di Valentino at the University of Manchester carefully studied the Planck satellite data of 2018, and their findings challenged our understanding of the usual ΛCDM assumption of the Universe being flat. Their results pointed out a “closed universe,” which is contradictory to our present assumptions and challenges the inflation theory. While their research was only 3σ, not conclusive, it needs a parallel study for more investigation as a cross-check.
The above map shows CMB fluctuations. Credits: ESA
The map shows the amplitude fluctuations polarization. While the temperature map clearly signifies the cold spot, the anomaly. It doesn’t show any statistical signification in anomalies of the polarization map, but doesn’t rule out the potential relevance of seen in the temperature map, but makes it more mysterious as a puzzle to be followed. Credits: ESA
Getting to an exotic route?
As we don’t have any standardized explanation or theory for the cold-spot of the Cosmic Microwave Background Radiation, some thinkers, for instance, philosophical actors, opt for a more weird possibility that the cold spot might be due to a “collision” between our Universe and a parallel universe. This goes with the popular multiverse theory we hear today by physicists all around the world. It says that the Universe collides and interacts over-time. The other Universe must have collided with ours, also thanks to the quantum entanglement between universes before they were separated at first by the cosmic inflation, and the interactions left this footprint on the CMB as a cold-spot. But, still, the “ECREE: Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence as said by Dr. Carl Sagan” and must be following the laws of other cosmological observations. If there’s a possibility to the theory of collision between universes, then there would have been an identifiable polarization signal in the coldspot. This has been suggested by Tom Shanks of the Centre of Extragalactic Astronomy at Durham University in 2017.
The recent data results of the Planck team in 2019 involved further analysis of the polarization found in the CMB (that’s entirely different from its temperature scale) to further dive into the anomalies and mysteries such as the cold spot. Planck’s multi-frequency data are designed to eliminate noises already existing from other microwave sources, including the dust and gas coming in between surveys from our own Milky Way. Even due to this scrupulous and worthy analysis, they failed to find any specific breakthrough traces of anomalies in the polarization maps (shown in maps). Till now, the Planck team has not denied or confirmed any of the nature of such anomalies as cold spots. This leaves an open-minded possibility of testation and explanations that would better our understanding and the implications of laws of physics for parameters at a cosmological scale.
Giant Magellan Telescope to be finished in 2029 as per gmto.org. Credits: GMTO
Further in the future, we need more data from more sensitive telescopes such as the MeerKAT array and other ventures like Giant Magellan Telescope and Square Kilometre Array. We also need to understand more about the existing forces such as Dark Energy and how it plays a role in the overall evolution of our Universe every passing second to understand the workings of the Integrated Sache-Wolfe effect. We do not reach any steady conclusion about the CMB cold spot with our present knowledge and limitations. So, we direly need better observational data or maybe revisitation in our current universal understandings. On the bright side, we can always use more advanced ground or space-based telescopes to get deeper to find a substantial explanation for the question of this enigmatic scientific occurrence of CMB cold spot.
References:
1. “The Enduring Enigma of the Cosmic Cold Spot.” Physics World, 11 Feb. 2020, https://physicsworld.com/a/the-enduring-enigma-of-the-cosmic-cold-spot/.
2. Dark Matter & Dark Energy | University of Oxford Department of Physics. https://www2.physics.ox.ac.uk/research/dark-matter-dark-energy. Accessed 27 Jan. 2021.
3. “Astronomers Discover Largest Known Structure in the Universe Is … a Big Hole.” The Guardian, 20 Apr. 2015, http://www.theguardian.com/science/2015/apr/20/astronomers-discover-largest-known-structure-in-the-universe-is-a-big-hole.
4. Goss, Heather. “What Created the Universe’s Cold Spot?” Air & Space Magazine, https://www.airspacemag.com/space/what-created-universes-cold-spot-180955343/. Accessed 27 Jan. 2021.
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